The Indiana Pacers delivered a dominant performance against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday, forcing a decisive Game 7 scheduled for Sunday in OKC, where the Thunder hold a strong 10-2 postseason home record and are currently 7.5-point favorites. The outcome of this final game will directly impact the NBA Finals MVP race, with Pascal Siakam leading MVP odds if Pacers win becoming a major storyline.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the frontrunner for the Finals MVP award, as most oddsmakers predict OKC to prevail. However, if Indiana completes what has become one of the most unpredictable playoff runs in recent memory by pulling off an upset, the MVP conversation could shift intriguingly between Pacers stars Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton, and possibly even T.J. McConnell.
Historical Context: Finals MVP Trends and Winning Team Advantage
One critical factor to consider when evaluating MVP possibilities is that only once in NBA history has a Finals MVP been awarded to a player from the losing team. Jerry West earned the honor in 1969 despite the Lakers’ seven-game loss to the Celtics, highlighted by his 38 points, seven assists, and four rebounds average per game. Given this precedent, it is highly likely the MVP will come from the championship-winning team. This longstanding pattern makes the outcome of Sunday’s Game 7 even more vital for individual accolades.
Adding to this, the Finals MVP typically goes to the leading scorer on the winning team; this has only been broken 12 times across NBA Finals history. The following instances highlight those rare departures, emphasizing how scoring prominence often determines the award:
- 1972 Lakers: Gail Goodrich & Wilt Chamberlain
- 1973 Knicks: Bill Bradley & Willis Reed
- 1977 Blazers: Maurice Lucas & Bill Walton
- 1978 Bullets: Elvin Hayes & Wes Unseld
- 1979 Sonics: Dennis Johnson & Gus Williams
- 1980 Lakers: Magic Johnson & Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
- 1982 Lakers: Magic Johnson & Jamal Wilkes
- 1986 Celtics: Larry Bird & Kevin McHale
- 2004 Pistons: Chauncey Billups & Richard Hamilton
- 2014 Spurs: Kawhi Leonard & Tony Parker
- 2015 Warriors: Andre Iguodala & Stephen Curry
- 2024 Celtics: Jaylen Brown & Jayson Tatum
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: The Leading Favorite
According to Caesars Sportsbook, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander holds a commanding -250 odds as the likely Finals MVP, reflecting the prevailing belief that the Thunder will win Game 7. Gilgeous-Alexander’s dominance in this series has been undeniable, averaging over 30 points per game. His performance will probably be a decisive factor if OKC seeks to close out the series on home turf. Although teammate Jalen Williams has shown spectacular moments, no other Thunder player seems poised to wrestle the MVP title from SGA if the Thunder emerge victorious.
Pascal Siakam: The Pacers’ Consistent Leader
Pascal Siakam currently sits at +285 odds and leads the Pacers in scoring through this series, averaging just shy of 20 points per game. While he has not delivered any explosive scoring outbursts, Siakam’s steady offensive production has been a keystone for Indiana throughout the postseason. His contributions extend beyond scoring; he is averaging 8.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.7 steals, showcasing a well-rounded impact on the court.
Siakam’s performance in Game 4—20 points, eight rebounds, five steals, and five assists—stands out as a prime example of his value. Additionally, he frequently draws fouls, getting to the free-throw line nearly seven times a game. Should Indiana prevail in Game 7, Siakam would be the front-runner for the MVP award based on his consistent excellence.
Tyrese Haliburton’s Impact and Upset Potential
Tyrese Haliburton enters Game 7 with +1200 odds, positioned as a potential MVP candidate if Indiana pulls off the upset. Despite longer odds compared to Jalen Williams, Haliburton’s impact is significant—he registered the series’ defining moment by hitting the game-winner in Game 1, and boasts a +21 point differential across the series. While his shooting has fluctuated, including a 0-for-6 game in Game 5, Haliburton’s all-around performance solidifies his importance.
Remarkably, Haliburton has joined an elite group as one of only two players in NBA Finals history to average at least seven assists, seven rebounds, and three made three-pointers in the first three Finals games—the other being Stephen Curry in 2017. If Haliburton delivers a standout Game 7, his star power and clutch capabilities could propel Indiana to victory and push him into strong MVP contention.
Jalen Williams’ Breakout Run and Long-Shot Upset Scenario
Jalen Williams, another rising star for the Thunder, has produced several impressive games, including back-to-back 25-point performances and a 40-point explosion in Game 5, pushing his odds to +1400. However, Williams has struggled with efficiency and was a minus-40 in OKC’s Game 6 loss, which dampens his MVP chances under typical circumstances.
Williams would need an extraordinary Game 7 effort coupled with a poor outing from Gilgeous-Alexander for any MVP hopes to materialize. Given the Thunder’s reliance on SGA’s scoring, an OKC win with a subpar game from their leading star seems unlikely. Thus, Williams remains more of a long-shot candidate.
T.J. McConnell: The Underdog’s Champion and Dark Horse
T.J. McConnell stands as a remarkable underdog, holding +7500 odds but firmly capturing fan admiration throughout the series. He has been outstanding off the bench, becoming the first player since the 1977 merger to post at least 10 points and five assists in three Finals games. McConnell has also achieved a unique milestone by delivering this performance as a reserve, setting him apart historically.
With one game remaining, McConnell’s potential to have a breakout Game 7 performance remains alive. Should Indiana win despite average or down efforts from Siakam and Haliburton, McConnell’s heroic narrative could sway enough MVP voters. While highly improbable, his improbable rise aligns with the Pacers’ underdog spirit. It’s a scenario that defies odds—a testament to the unpredictability of these playoffs.
Overview of 2025 NBA Finals MVP Betting Odds
As of June 21, Caesars Sportsbook lists the following Finals MVP odds alongside the leading candidates:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -250
- Pascal Siakam: +285
- Tyrese Haliburton: +1200
- Jalen Williams: +1400
- T.J. McConnell: +7500
- Obi Toppin: +30000
- Andrew Nembhard: +40000
- Chet Holmgren: +50000
- Bennedict Mathurin: +70000
- Aaron Nesmith: +70000
- Alex Caruso: +75000
- Myles Turner: +75000
These odds underscore the concentration of MVP potential among a few key players, with SGA and Siakam clearly separated from the long shots. However, the uncertainty surrounding Game 7 elevates the stakes and leaves the MVP race wide open, depending on which team ultimately claims the championship.
Implications and What’s Next for the MVP Race
Game 7 stands as a high-pressure moment for both teams and their MVP contenders. If Oklahoma City wins, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s solid series and leadership will likely secure him the award, reinforcing his status as the heavy favorite. But should the underdog Pacers overcome the odds in front of a hostile crowd, Pascal Siakam’s steadfast excellence places him in the prime position for MVP honors.
Tyrese Haliburton’s potential to vault into MVP consideration depends heavily on an extraordinary final game, highlighting his ability to shine under pressure despite inconsistencies. Meanwhile, T.J. McConnell provides a romantic, if unlikely, storyline as a fan favorite and catalyst for Indiana’s success.
Overall, this final game offers not only a championship title but also the chance to rewrite MVP narratives during one of the most thrilling and unpredictable postseasons in recent NBA history. Fans and bettors alike anticipate an intense, anxious showdown where the stakes could not be higher for the players, teams, and the MVP race itself.