As the Red Sox, Athletics, and Pirates complete their games on Tuesday night, they will cross the threshold of 81 games played this season, marking the first official midpoint milestone in Major League Baseball. Although this doesn’t represent the exact halfway point of the season or coincide precisely with the All-Star break, it serves as a natural moment to assess early performances and project how players might fare in the months ahead. In particular, analysts are focusing on several hitters who underperformed in the first half but show strong signs of improvement, including a notable player whose path back from Triple-A is generating buzz.
Chandler Simpson’s Return From Triple-A Suggests Big Upside for Rays
Chandler Simpson rejoined the Rays roster after a stint in Triple-A, and expectations are high that he will deliver a strong second-half performance. His initial period with the Rays featured a respectable hitting line of .285/.315/.317, which showed solid contact ability but lacked power. Simpson’s skill set, especially his elite contact rates—the 11th lowest whiff rate and tied for 13th in strikeout rate among batters with at least 100 plate appearances—points toward further growth. His .318 BABIP hints that he could improve his batting average substantially, as his minor league strikeout rates consistently remained in the single digits.
Comparisons to players like Xavier Edwards, who boasts a BABIP over .370 alongside impressive stolen base totals, suggest Simpson’s potential impact extends beyond hitting. If he reaches closer to a .300 average and improves his walk rate, he could establish himself as one of the Rays’ most valuable hitters. However, how the Rays deploy Simpson defensively will influence his playing time. He struggled defensively in center field initially and is expected to shift more frequently to left field, a position where expectations are also cautious. The decision will come as the team finalizes roster moves near the All-Star break, with Simpson poised to earn an everyday spot if his bat and defense align.
Even if Simpson does not secure a full-time role, his speed makes him an asset as a part-time contributor, potentially taking on a role similar to Jarrod Dyson’s, utilized for strategic base-stealing. With an optimistic outlook, Simpson could achieve a .290-plus average and 40 stolen bases during the season‘s latter half, possibly earning a prime lineup spot if he heats up.
Houston Astros’ Yainer Diaz Needs Plate Discipline to Unlock Potential
Yainer Diaz has struggled due to poor plate discipline, especially evidenced by his high rate of swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. Although his strikeout rate of 18.8% is better than league average, his propensity to chase bad pitches—making contact with about 60% of those swings—has hindered his offensive output. Diaz ranks in the mid-60th percentile for weighted on-base average (wOBA) on both in-zone and out-of-zone pitches since 2023, showing consistent contact but underscoring the problem with his pitch selection.
This tendency hasn’t kept him from previous success but appears to be exploited more by pitchers this season. Despite a nearly steady rate of seeing pitches in the strike zone, Diaz’s actual wOBA dropped to .283 this year compared to .329 last season, mainly due to weaker results on balls in play. One challenge for Diaz has been the reduced distance his airborne batted balls are traveling, even though he is pulling more balls toward the Crawford Boxes in Houston, a hitter-friendly area, which should theoretically help his power production.
Although Diaz improved in May with a .283/.330/.465 slash line, his performance declined again in June, maintaining a buy-low opportunity for those willing to bet on his skills. His consistent underlying quality contact indicators suggest the potential for a rebound if he can adjust his plate discipline and stop chasing so many non-strike pitches.
Mike Trout’s Current Struggles Mask His Elite Hitting Skills
Mike Trout, despite facing one of the toughest offensive seasons of his career, continues to exhibit many attributes of an elite hitter, fueling speculation among experts on his likelihood of a strong second half bounce back. His strikeout rate hovers near 30%, a stubborn climb compared to prior years, yet he maintains excellent swing discipline by drawing numerous walks and producing some of the hardest-hit balls in the league. Trout ranks in the 95th percentile for hard-hit rate and 96th percentile in barrel rate, with an expected wOBA of .399, placing him among the top dozen hitters in baseball this season.
However, Trout’s slash line through 52 games stands at just .225 with a .769 OPS, marking the lowest batting average of his career. While he has hit 12 home runs, his combined runs scored and RBIs total only 53, with a mere two stolen bases, illustrating his challenges. Notably, his 81.3% in-zone contact rate remains around league average, underscoring that his fundamental approach remains sound despite the decline in performance.
One notable change is a sharp decrease in his pulled-air batted balls to 15.6%, his lowest rate since 2016. Pulling the ball more often has historically correlated with greater power production for Trout, especially considering the hitter-friendly conditions at Angel Stadium. However, the difference in pulled balls this season only accounts for a marginal number of hits and home runs and cannot fully explain the offensive slump.
Most analysts attribute Trout’s struggles primarily to bad luck rather than diminished skills. The quality of his swing decisions and contact quality supports the view that he remains one of the game’s better hitters and should bounce back as the season progresses.
Michael Harris’ Declining Contact and Its Impact on His Performance
Michael Harris’ downturn this year contrasts with his prior ability to handle bad pitches through excellent barrel contact. Unlike Diaz, Harris’ average exit velocity has declined from 90.5 mph to 89.3 mph, exacerbating the effects of his historically poor swing decisions. While Harris is making more contact on pitches inside the zone, increasing his contact rate from 81.5% to 86.9%, this has not translated into fewer strikeouts because he continues to swing excessively at pitches outside the strike zone.
This combination leads to weaker contact quality and ongoing struggles at the plate. Harris’ June numbers show a concerning drop in expected wOBA to .254, declining from .315 and .313 in previous months, signaling a negative trend rather than improvement. His streaky past and age—just 24 years old—suggest there may still be room to recover, as young talent rarely declines sharply without injury. Consequently, Harris represents a high-risk, low-cost buy for those willing to gamble on his potential to regain form, especially given the lowered market expectations for him this season.
Teams currently rostered with Harris might be eager to move him along, potentially viewing trades involving him as favorable to their own roster flexibility.
Implications for the Second Half and What to Expect Next
As the baseball season moves into its second half, players like Mike Trout and others mentioned are at critical junctures where their futures this year will become clearer. Trout’s persistent elite metrics despite poor results suggest his value and performance should rebound, surprising some fans who may have written him off prematurely. Chandler Simpson’s potential everyday role for the Rays depends largely on defensive improvements, while Yainer Diaz’s development hinges on refining his plate approach. Meanwhile, Michael Harris’ struggles place him in a precarious position, though his age and previous potential make him a long-shot candidate for revival.
This phase of the season presents an opportunity for fantasy managers, analysts, and teams to recalibrate expectations and strategies, focusing on these buy-low candidates whose second half outputs could significantly influence playoff races and postseason projections. The unfolding performances will test not only their individual resilience but also how teams adapt their rosters to maximize upside and maintain competitive edges.