Pete Alonso MLB home run props take center stage as the New York Mets first baseman, known for his Home Run Derby triumphs, faces a crucial matchup this Thursday. With updated odds and strong performances this season, Alonso is featured among the top home run prop picks recommended by leading analysts for Thursday’s Major League Baseball slate.
Alonso’s Strong Season Puts Him in the Spotlight
Pete Alonso, often called the “Polar Bear,” is having an exceptional year, boasting his best numbers since his rookie campaign. Over 87 games, Alonso is hitting .287 with a .376 on-base percentage and a .530 slugging mark. With 18 home runs and 66 runs batted in, he also leads the National League in doubles, totaling 24 so far. Despite an 11-game stretch without a home run, Alonso’s betting odds to hit one have improved, offering significant value for fans and bettors alike on Thursday night.
Oddsmakers at DraftKings have set Alonso’s home run prop at +340, making him an intriguing choice for those seeking plus-odds power hitters. These odds, paired with his established power profile, underscore why he stands out among MLB home run props this week.
How Betting Models Assist with MLB Prop Selections
Advanced betting tools are now a regular fixture for analyzing MLB home run props. SportsLine’s league projection model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, has produced a return of over 27 units on its home run picks in the last several months. The model has correctly spotlighted at least one home run hitter in five of the previous six days, demonstrating consistent accuracy in identifying sluggers poised for a big moment.
Alongside automated projections, SportsLine’s data science team has highlighted Thursday’s top targets for home run bets, further supporting enthusiasts and bettors eager to capitalize on favorable odds in matchups across the league, including players from the Mets, Astros, and Brewers.
Top Home Run Prop Picks for Thursday’s MLB Games
For Thursday, several MLB hitters have emerged as noteworthy plays for home run props based on model projections and analyst insight:
1. Pete Alonso, Mets (+340):
Alonso holds a reputation as one of baseball’s premier power hitters, especially potent against left-handed pitching. Over his career, Alonso launches a home run every 13.4 at-bats versus lefties, and he faces another southpaw on Thursday. According to SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner:
“Alonso has only faced Quintana three times in his career, but he is 1-3 with a HR in those three ABs. Alonso has played with Quintana as a teammate, so he is plenty familiar with his arsenal,”
—Jacob Fetner, SportsLine data analyst
While Alonso’s performance against lefties this year has lagged his career pace, with a .222 average and just 3 home runs, the underlying numbers and previous success keep him in the conversation for Thursday’s best MLB home run props. Fetner added:
“Alonso has not homered in 11 games, so he is due to hit a long ball. While Alonso has been solid throughout his career against LHPs, he has struggled against lefties this season with just a .222 average and 3 home runs. We still like him in this spot due to his historical stats.”
—Jacob Fetner, SportsLine data analyst
2. Cam Smith, Astros (+520):
Smith, acquired as a key piece in the Kyle Tucker trade, is in the midst of a surge, posting multi-hit games in five of his past six starts. The 22-year-old right-handed hitter now faces a matchup at Coors Field against lefty Kyle Freeland, whose splits have favored hitters all season. Fetner noted:
“Right-handed batters are hitting .340 with a .881 OPS against Kyle Freeland this season. At Coors, batters are hitting .387 with a .998 OPS against Freeland,”
—Jacob Fetner, SportsLine data analyst
Expecting Smith’s propensity for hard contact and his current form to translate at hitter-friendly Coors, the team’s projections set his fair line at +475, while FanDuel lists him at a lucrative +520. As Fetner put it:
“The splits are in Smith’s favor, and we set his line at +475 to homer.”
—Jacob Fetner, SportsLine data analyst
3. Rhys Hoskins, Brewers (+520):
Hoskins’ power has been reliable throughout his career, producing at least 26 home runs in seasons with at least 100 games. He comes into Thursday with a favorable matchup and robust track record, having gone 7-for-16 with two home runs and three doubles against the left-handed pitcher Peterson. Moreover, eight of Hoskins’ 19 hits this season against lefties have been for extra bases. Fetner commented:
“Hoskins has always been good against left-handed pitchers, which his .890 career OPS against LHPs can attest for,”
—Jacob Fetner, SportsLine data analyst
The projection model gives him a +450 fair price to go deep, yet he’s available at +520—making Hoskins another compelling home run prop play for Thursday. As Fetner summarized:
“We set Hoskins’ line at +450 to homer.”
—Jacob Fetner, SportsLine data analyst
Where to Find the Best Odds for MLB Home Run Props
Several top sportsbooks, including DraftKings and FanDuel, are featuring robust offers for Thursday’s MLB slate. Bettors looking to maximize their home run props can leverage sign-up promotions and enhanced odds across platforms such as Caesars, BetMGM, and Fanatics. New users can access bonus bets, with opportunities to multiply winnings or recover losses depending on the bookmaker’s latest offers. Checking each site for the freshest odds can ensure the highest potential returns for MLB prop bets.
Looking Ahead: The Impact of Advanced Projections in MLB Betting
Thursday’s highlighted MLB home run picks underscore the value of using sophisticated analytics and real-time model projections for prop betting. Pete Alonso’s presence among the day’s top options demonstrates how historical power statistics, current form, and matchup data can shape confident selection for bettors. As the season progresses and more data accumulates, expect analytical models and informed analysts to play an even greater role in guiding MLB home run prop decisions, potentially influencing both odds-setting and public betting trends.
Our Reader’s Queries
Q. Why do they call Pete Alonso a polar bear?
A. Alonso was first called “Polar Bear” when he was a top prospect in baseball. During spring training in 2019, he stood out because of his strong presence. Mets third baseman Todd Frazier, who liked to give players nicknames, started calling him that. Frazier told Alonso, “You look like a big, polar bear.”