Garrett Wilson has established himself as a top receiving threat early in his NFL career, posting three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons while steadily increasing his reception totals. Over these three seasons, Wilson commanded a substantial 27% target share on his team. With Justin Fields set to become the New York Jets’ starting quarterback in 2025, Wilson’s WR1 fantasy season prospects are gaining significant traction. His average draft position (ADP) currently sits at WR16, but as the Jets’ offense evolves, his upside is becoming clearer.
Wilson’s journey has been marked by catching passes from eight different quarterbacks so far—Zach Wilson, Mike White, Joe Flacco, Chris Streveler, Trevor Siemian, Tim Boyle, Aaron Rodgers, and Tyrod Taylor—displaying his adaptability through fluctuating circumstances. The addition of Justin Fields to this quarterback list in 2025 could be the catalyst Wilson needs to reach elite fantasy status.
Reflecting on Garrett Wilson’s 2024 Performance
The 2024 season was a milestone in Wilson’s career, highlighted by the stability and health of Aaron Rodgers, who attempted 584 passes—second most in the NFL. This consistency helped Wilson achieve career bests in receptions (101), yards (1,104), and touchdowns (7), culminating in a WR9 fantasy finish. However, fantasy owners experienced erratic performance stretches throughout the year. Wilson failed to rank among the top 24 wide receivers in the first four weeks, then had a strong five-week streak where he did, peaking with a standout game against Houston where he posted 90 yards and two touchdowns on nine catches.
The latter part of the season saw Wilson’s performance dip again, cracking the top 24 just twice in the final eight weeks, while finishing outside the top 40 five times. A significant factor was the arrival of Davante Adams in Week 7, who took a dominant 31% target share, pushing Wilson’s target share from 30% down to 23%. Although still respectable, this shift made it clear Wilson became the secondary option.
Jets’ Offensive Changes Signal New Opportunities for Wilson
Looking ahead to 2025, the Jets face multiple transitions that could reshape Wilson’s fantasy outlook. Both Rodgers and Adams are departing, while New York brings in a fresh coaching staff led by Aaron Glenn, the former Detroit Lions defensive coordinator. Glenn has appointed Tanner Engstrand, ex-pass game coordinator for Detroit, as offensive coordinator. This overhaul creates uncertainty but also opens the door for Wilson to assert himself as the Jets’ leading weapon.
Wilson’s Target Dominance and Depth Chart Context
Wilson’s historic target volume is one of the strongest indicators pointing toward a WR1 fantasy season. With 469 career targets in three seasons—the second highest ever to start an NFL career behind Justin Jefferson—Wilson has consistently demonstrated his role as a target magnet. His full-season target share has never dipped below 25%, a benchmark typically associated with elite receivers.
The Jets’ wide receiver room beyond Wilson is thin. Veteran Josh Reynolds, a journeyman with no career target share above 20%, and Alan Lazard, who peaked at a 21% target share years ago, provide limited competition. Rookie Malachi Corley had just six targets as a rookie, and recent draft selections include TE Mason Taylor and wideout Arian Smith, neither expected to challenge for a large share of targets immediately. This makes it highly likely Wilson will lead the Jets in targets and possibly the league, with a target share surpassing 30% entirely feasible.
Receptions and Catch Efficiency with Justin Fields
Wilson has improved his reception totals each year, reaching a career-high with 101 receptions in 2024, aided by a 65.6% catch rate while playing with Rodgers. While Fields may not match Rodgers’ precision, his own accuracy has also improved annually, reaching 65.8% last season in Pittsburgh. Importantly, Fields was the quarterback when DJ Moore was a top-six fantasy wide receiver for Chicago in 2023, finishing with a 71% catch rate. This suggests Wilson’s familiarity with Fields from their Ohio State days could facilitate a productive connection in 2025.
Projection for Wilson’s Yards and Average Depth of Target
Wilson’s three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons establish a baseline of reliability, but his yards per reception has declined each year, reflecting a drop in his average depth of target (aDOT). Last year with Rodgers, Wilson’s aDOT was a career-low 7.3 yards. Fields’ aDOT was 7.8 yards in Pittsburgh last season and 8.8 yards during his final Bears season, which aligned with DJ Moore’s best fantasy year. If Wilson’s aDOT climbs back toward that range under Fields, a 1,200-yard season or better is a plausible outcome.
Touchdowns: The Key to Breaking into Elite WR1 Status
Wilson’s touchdown production doubled in 2024 compared to his first two NFL seasons combined, catching seven touchdowns. While encouraging, scoring more touchdowns is essential to elevate him into the WR1 echelon. Yet, touchdowns are heavily dependent on quarterback and offensive scheme.
Current betting markets place Fields’ passing touchdown total around 14.5 for the 2025 season, the lowest in the league. For Wilson to match his seven touchdowns from last year, he would need to secure roughly half of Fields’ touchdown passes, a challenging but not impossible feat.
Fields averaged 15 passing touchdowns over a 17-game span during his first three seasons and improved to a 20-touchdown pace over his last two years with Chicago. This suggests the capacity exists to exceed market expectations, potentially increasing Wilson’s scoring opportunities. While at Ohio State, Fields threw 63 touchdowns over 22 games, though Wilson shared targets with other elite collegiate receivers like Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, competition he will not face at New York.
Team Strategy and Its Impact on Wilson’s Scoring Potential
The Jets’ new regime under defensive-minded coach Aaron Glenn, combined with a strong ground game featuring Breece Hall and Braelon Allen, may prioritize controlling the clock and solid defense over aggressive passing. Fields’ own mobility adds complexity, as his running ability could reduce passing touchdown chances. Still, with Las Vegas projecting just 5.5 wins for the Jets, offensive necessity might force a heavier reliance on the passing game, which could increase Wilson’s opportunities.
Ultimately, touchdowns are the most critical and hardest-to-predict factor for Wilson’s fantasy success given the many unknowns in New York’s new offense.
Recognizing the Significance of Wilson’s Situation Heading Into 2025
Garrett Wilson has been a consistent, injury-free performer with over 1,000 receiving yards in each NFL season and a top-10 fantasy receiver ranking in 2024. Yet, his perceived ceiling has kept him from cracking elite WR1 status, illustrated by his WR16 ADP in current drafts. This valuation represents his floor based on reliability.
Should Justin Fields reignite his familiar chemistry with Wilson and the Jets’ offense unlock untapped potential, Wilson stands a clear chance of ascending into the WR1 tier in 2025, transforming his fantasy outlook dramatically.
Our Reader’s Queries
Q. Why does Garrett Wilson wear 5?
A. During the 2023 season, Wilson played in all 17 games. He ended the season with 95 catches, gaining 1,042 yards, and scoring three touchdowns. On January 9, 2024, Wilson switched his jersey from number 17 to number 5, a number he wore during college. Punter Thomas Morstead first wore the number 5.
Q. Why is Garrett Wilson wearing 5?
A. On January 9, 2024, Wilson switched his jersey number from 17 to 5, which was his college number. Punter Thomas Morstead previously wore number 5.