Pittsburgh Pirates’ right-handed pitcher Mitch Keller has become a frequent name in recent trade discussions due to his value amid the team‘s struggles. With the Pirates underperforming and Keller delivering steady performances, the organization faces the temptation to trade him to shed the remaining $60 million on his contract. While this move may appear logical, it could ultimately be Ben Cherington’s most significant error in his tenure with the Pirates.
Keller’s Consistent Performance and Durability
Since 2022, Keller has started 111 games and pitched 644⅓ innings, posting a 4.04 ERA (106 ERA+) and a 3.82 FIP, supported by a 1.29 WHIP. His strikeout rate around 21.9% aligns with the league average, but he maintains an impressive 7% walk rate and a home run rate of 0.99 per nine innings. These statistics place Keller among the most dependable starters in the majors over the past four seasons.
Only a select few pitchers have matched Keller’s innings total since 2022—with just 13 reaching that mark—and even fewer (11 pitchers) have combined such volume with above-average ERA+ and sub-4.00 FIP metrics. His company includes notable names like Logan Webb, Corbin Burnes, Framber Valdez, Zack Wheeler, and Logan Gilbert, highlighting the level at which Keller consistently competes. In 2025, Keller continues to deliver quality work with a 3.58 ERA, 3.39 FIP, and 1.17 WHIP over 19 starts and 113 innings.
Dependability Isn’t Easily Replaced
In today’s baseball environment, where arm injuries and surgeries such as Tommy John are frequent, finding a pitcher who reliably reaches at least five innings per start for around 30 starts annually is a rarity. Keller’s ability to provide this stability with average or better results is invaluable, and the Pirates would struggle to fill the gap if he were traded.
While Bubba Chandler is considered the most logical replacement, his current workload is far less durable, averaging just four innings per outing at Triple-A this season, though he did log 39⅓ innings over seven starts following a late-season Indy promotion last year. Questions remain whether other prospects like Mike Burrows or Braxton Ashcraft are prepared to significantly increase their innings and maintain consistent performances.
The Financial Edge and Contract Value of Keller
Keller’s contract extends through the 2028 season, carrying a salary just over $55.7 million, which is a bargain compared to contemporaries. For example, Sean Manaea signed a three-year, $75 million deal last offseason, while Luis Severino secured nearly $67 million for the same duration. Other pitchers such as Frankie Montas, Matt Boyd, and Alex Cobb earn salaries close to or below what Keller is paid this year, underscoring the exceptional value Keller represents for the Pirates.
Moreover, if Keller were traded, it remains uncertain whether the Pirates’ ownership, led by Bob Nutting, would reinvest the savings into the team effectively, adding another layer of risk to the decision. Keller’s affordability further enhances his importance to Pittsburgh’s pitching staff and overall financial strategy.
The Immense Cost of Losing Keller for the Pirates’ Future
Keller’s importance to the Pirates could be nearly as critical as that of top prospect Paul Skenes, given his durability, reliability, and affordable contract. Trading Keller would leave a major void in the starting rotation that would be difficult to fill. Even receiving an All-Star-quality hitter or a similarly controlled player in exchange would not fully compensate for the loss of Keller’s consistent presence on the mound.
Given the Pirates’ limited depth and the challenge of developing durable starters internally, relinquishing Keller risks destabilizing the pitching staff for years. This potential upheaval looms as the most consequential misstep that Ben Cherington could make during his time managing the team’s roster decisions.