The Seattle Mariners secured a narrow 1-0 victory last night, with catcher Cal Raleigh’s home run providing the game’s sole run. While the Mariners’ offense has featured several key contributors, including All-Star outfielder Randy Arozarena, Raleigh’s power surge has become central to the team‘s success this season. This upsurge has placed him firmly in contention for the American League MVP award, a race largely dominated by New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge.
Despite Judge’s dominant season, Raleigh’s recent performances and unique role have elevated his standing. Betting markets reflect this shift: Aaron Judge holds heavy favoritism with odds at -650, but Raleigh’s +300 offers considerable value, with another player, Tarik Skubal, trailing far behind at +8000. The Mariners currently sit five games behind the AL West-leading Houston Astros but maintain a playoff spot as the second American League wild card, highlighting Raleigh’s critical influence on their position.
Comparing Raleigh and Judge: Beyond the Stat Lines
A detailed statistical comparison underscores the magnitude of Judge’s season and the challenge Raleigh faces in catching up. Judge boasts a triple-slash line of .346/.455/.714, complemented by a 220 OPS+ and 7.0 bWAR, while Raleigh’s line sits at .256/.370/.619 with a 184 OPS+ and 5.0 bWAR. Judge also leads in overall hits (128 to Raleigh’s 94) and runs scored (89 to 68). However, Raleigh surpasses Judge in home runs, with 39 compared to Judge’s 36, along with more stolen bases (11 to 6).
The context of ballparks also helps explain some differences: while Yankee Stadium is slightly below average for right-handed hitters like Judge, Seattle’s home field is one of the most pitcher-friendly in the league. OPS+ accounts for this environmental factor, and even with it, Judge holds a near 40-point advantage. Considering weighted runs created plus (wRC+), Judge leads 211 to 172, emphasizing his offensive dominance in adjusted terms.
Historic Power Numbers from a Catcher Change the Narrative
One of the most striking aspects of Raleigh’s candidacy is his home run total for a catcher. He is on pace for 63 home runs, which would shatter the record of 48 set by Salvador Perez in 2021. Historically, only eight catchers have hit 40 or more home runs in a season, and Raleigh has already reached 39 by late July. This level of power hitting from the catcher position, a defensively demanding role often called the “tools of ignorance,” is practically unprecedented.
Raleigh has split time between catching and designated hitter duties, starting 76 games behind the plate and 24 as DH. The challenge of his primary defensive responsibility amplifies his offensive accomplishments, as catchers typically face significant physical tolls. If Raleigh reaches or exceeds 60 home runs and the Mariners secure a playoff berth, it would create a compelling case for MVP voters considering both offensive production and positional difficulty.
Evaluating the Team Context and Voter Perspectives
The Mariners’ offense remains heavily reliant on Raleigh. Their second-leading home run hitter, Randy Arozarena, has 18 homers, and Julio Rodríguez’s 51 RBI trail Raleigh’s 84 RBI. Seattle’s total run output stands at 468, with Raleigh’s combined runs scored and RBIs constituting 152, indicating his pivotal role. Comparatively, the Yankees have scored 526 runs, with Judge accounting for 171 runs and RBIs, maintaining an identical percentage of team contribution at 32.5%. This statistic suggests both players are equally vital to their respective offenses, even if the teams differ in overall run production.
Voters might also give Raleigh consideration due to the demanding nature of the catcher position and potential fatigue with Judge, who won the AL MVP in 2022 and 2024. While the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) tries to diversify voting to avoid repetition, the fact remains that Judge has been a recent repeat winner, possibly opening the door for a fresh narrative centered on Raleigh’s historic power and leadership.
Implications of Ballpark Advantage and Voting Demographics
Some observers might argue that Judge benefits from playing in New York, which typically garners more media attention and voter presence. However, the BBWAA ensures balanced voting representation, assigning two voters from each chapter, so Seattle and the AL West have equal voice alongside larger markets such as New York and Boston. This helps level the playing field somewhat in MVP consideration despite differences in media exposure.
Furthermore, the Mariners’ positioning in the AL West race keeps their postseason hopes alive, maintaining relevance for Raleigh’s candidacy. The likelihood of a playoff berth and the unprecedented nature of his home run total bolster his case late in the season.
The AL MVP Race Remains Open as Raleigh Pushes Forward
Despite Aaron Judge’s outstanding season, Cal Raleigh has created a legitimate challenge in the AL MVP race with his historic power numbers, significant offensive contribution, and demanding defensive role. His impact on the Mariners’ playoff push, coupled with the rarity of his achievement as a high-power catcher, gives voters plenty to consider as the season progresses. Whether Raleigh’s momentum can overcome Judge’s formidable season remains to be seen, but the competition is far from decided.
Our Reader’s Queries
Q. Why is Cal Raleigh the big dumper?
A. Raleigh seems like he would be more comfortable in a casual baseball league with a beer than at a photo shoot. However, his impressive backside attracted attention. His teammate, Jarred Kelenic, gave him the nickname when he first saw Raleigh’s catching position in the minor leagues.