The Edmonton Oilers face uncertainty in their goaltending position, but Stuart Skinner is expected to remain the leading goalie for the team. Despite struggles during consecutive Stanley Cup Final losses, Skinner remains a key player and is projected to receive a significant contract extension.
Skinner is entering the final year of his current three-year, $7.8 million contract. NHL insider Kurt Leavins from the Edmonton Journal predicts Skinner’s next deal could exceed $6 million annually, influenced by comparable recent signings around the league.
Comparing Skinner’s Expected Contract to Anaheim’s Dostal Extension
Leavins notes that the five-year, $6.25 million average annual value (AAV) contract recently signed by Anaheim Ducks goalie Lukas Dostal is likely to serve as a model for Skinner’s new deal. The similarities between the two netminders strengthen this projection, despite some differences in experience and team context.
Leavins explained,
“The Oilers and other NHL teams who may have a future interest in the netminder and no doubt also going to school on the newly signed deal by Lukas Dostal in Anaheim,”
emphasizing how Dostal’s contract sets a precedent for Skinner’s value.
When comparing performance, Dostal, 25, has averaged 50 games played in the last two NHL seasons, with a goals-against average (GAA) around 3.22 and a save percentage (SV%) near .903, though he has no playoff experience. In contrast, Skinner, 26, has played about 55 games per season over the same period, posting a 2.90 GAA and .893 SV%, while also participating in 38 playoff games across Edmonton’s recent deep runs.
Leavins added,
“Comparing the two: Luka Dostal is twenty-five. Over the last two seasons, he has averaged 50 GP, a GAA around 3.22, a SV% of about .903. Dostal has no playoff experience. Skinner has played thirty-eight post-season games the past two years and is twenty-six.”
Though Skinner’s statistics show some inconsistency, partly attributed to playing for a stronger team, analytics offer a nuanced view. He recorded an even-strength high-danger save percentage (HDsv%) of .824 last season, slightly lower than Dostal’s .831. His regular-season record last year was 26-18-4 with a 2.81 GAA and a .896 SV%, while his playoff numbers dipped to 7-7 with a 2.99 GAA and .899 SV%.
Leavins elaborated on these metrics:
“Now, if we are being fair, Skinner did play on a far superior team. Looking at analytics, Skinner had an even-strength HDsc SV% of .824 last year. Dostal was slightly better than that at .831.”
Oilers General Manager Considers Goalie Options as Offseason Develops
Although speculation has surrounded Edmonton making a goalie acquisition this offseason, the Oilers have yet to add a new netminder. General manager Stan Bowman expressed a measured approach as the team evaluates the market and existing roster.
Bowman said,
“Well, the evaluation isn’t something you do just once or twice and then it’s over with. When I say that, it’s not just looking at the goaltending we have, but also what’s out there and options.”
He further explained,
“So it’s going to be a process that we’re going to go through. I don’t think we’re going to come to one decision tomorrow or the next day. It’s really about taking in the information, and eventually, we’re going to settle on the thing that we think makes the most sense.”
If the Oilers decide against any offseason moves, their goalies for the upcoming season would be Skinner alongside Calvin Pickard, shaping the team’s net presence.
Contract Forecast and Potential Impact on Edmonton’s Future
Despite some fans’ reservations over Skinner’s inconsistencies in recent playoff performances, his value is anticipated to remain high due to limited goaltending options and his experience leading Edmonton’s deep postseason runs. Kurt Leavins highlighted the importance of wins and overall impact on contract negotiations, stating,
“Detractors may not like that assertion, but Wins and Losses matter. As a result, something above $6m seems to be in the range of what he may be able to fetch, be it in Edmonton or somewhere else.”
This outlook changes dramatically if Skinner secures a Stanley Cup victory in his third attempt, as Leavins noted,
“But: If Skinner goes out and has a great year, and finally wins that cup in try #3…that calculus changes. Big time.”
Given the current circumstances, a contract surpassing $6 million per season positions Skinner as a cornerstone in Edmonton’s future, while the team balances its decision-making for the net with potential market moves still under consideration. The coming season and Skinner’s performance will ultimately determine the scale of his next deal and Edmonton’s goaltending trajectory.