Aaron Judge’s right elbow flexor tendon strain has sidelined him, raising concerns for fantasy baseball managers about his availability and long-term performance. This Aaron Judge injury update comes as the New York Yankees classify his absence as potentially lasting only 10 days, but the uncertainty surrounding his recovery leaves fantasy owners cautious about dropping the top-ranked player.
Rarity of Long-Term Injuries Among Top Fantasy Performers
While it seems common for first-round fantasy picks to face extended injuries, the situation with Aaron Judge is less typical. Injuries sidelining the No. 1 fantasy player for a significant period—defined here as at least 10 days—are uncommon. Historical data over the past four and a half decades in fantasy baseball’s rotisserie era shows only a few top hitters missed time after the All-Star break while leading in fantasy points. Edgar Martinez in 1996 and David Ortiz in 2012 are rare examples, with others like Shohei Ohtani and Edwin Encarnacion facing injuries that either occurred outside this specific timeframe or while not leading outright.
All of these players, including Judge who is 33 years old, spent considerable time as designated hitters late in their careers. Their injuries varied from bruised ribs to Achilles and oblique strains. Notably, Ortiz played just one more game in 2012 after his injury, which adds caution to Judge’s prognosis. These cases demonstrate the mixed impacts injuries can have on elite hitters returning late in the season, highlighting why fantasy managers remain concerned.
Uncommon Nature of Judge’s Flexor Tendon Injury
Judge’s specific injury to the flexor tendon in his right elbow is especially unusual for a hitter. Research into the past decade reveals only seven hitters placed on the Injured List for this type of injury: notable names include Justin Morneau, Steve Pearce, Jay Bruce, and Aaron Hicks. Nearly all required surgery and missed at least a month before returning to play, which contrasts sharply with the Yankees’ suggested 10-day absence.
Of the comparable cases, Mitch Garver’s 2022 injury offers the closest parallel. He missed only 10 days and returned as a designated hitter, with an increase in power metrics post-recovery. However, none of these players approached Judge’s elite level of production and significance in fantasy baseball. Conversely, pitchers often sustain flexor tendon issues, but their recovery stories do not directly apply to hitters, as pitchers rely primarily on their throwing arm, whereas Judge will not throw upon his return but focus on hitting.
Assessing the Impact of Judge’s Injury on Fantasy Teams
If Judge only misses a minimum of 10 days and can perform at 90% of his previous level after his return, fantasy teams in mixed leagues might barely notice his absence. However, in larger formats like 20-team leagues or American League-only setups, the void left by Judge’s time away could be more impactful. Still, replacements are available on waivers, offering temporary relief in the short term.
The larger concern lies in the unpredictable nature of his recovery. The Yankees have reasons to be guarded about his condition as they approach the trade deadline, which might influence how forthcoming they are about Judge’s remaining season outlook. There is a possibility he will need a longer time on the Injured List, face reduced effectiveness as a designated hitter, or even require surgery later on—all scenarios that could drastically affect his fantasy value.
Fantasy Replacement Benchmarks During Judge’s Absence
Examining year-to-date fantasy scoring, primary-position outfielders who are commonly available on waivers provide a baseline for what owners might expect in Judge’s absence:
- Next 10 days: An average of 2.06 fantasy points per game, totaling 13.0 fantasy points, with 28% of these players scoring 20 or more fantasy points during this span.
- Next 20 days: Approximately 2.05 fantasy points per game, combining for 25.7 points in total, with a quarter exceeding 40 points.
- Next 30 days: Roughly 2.04 points per game, adding up to 37.8 points overall, with 22% scoring at least 60 points in this period.
These figures represent a steep decline from Judge’s current fantasy production of 3.90 points per game. If Judge misses 20 days and returns performing at 90% capacity, his total fantasy points would finish around 572 for the year—60 points fewer than his pace before injury. This equates to losing just over one fantasy point per game for the remainder of the season.
While this drop is significant, Judge would still rank among the top seven fantasy hitters, only trailing players like Shohei Ohtani, Cal Raleigh, Kyle Tucker, Jose Ramirez, Kyle Schwarber, and Juan Soto in projected scoring. The true risk lies in any setback that makes his recovery take longer or reduces his effectiveness beyond initial estimates.
Should Fantasy Owners Consider Dropping Aaron Judge?
Despite the injury, Aaron Judge remains one of the most exceptional talents in baseball, and his fantasy value reflects that. His ability to sustain high-level production even with missed time sets him apart from nearly every other player. This underlines the hesitation for fantasy managers to drop him, especially as rosters include Injured List spots specifically designed to hold sidelined stars.
Manager Aaron Boone’s cautious optimism about Judge’s recovery timeline, targeting an August 5 return with a minimum IL stint, supports holding onto him. Only teams facing dire roster limitations or immediate needs might contemplate releasing him, but that remains a small minority.
Ultimately, while the injury casts a shadow over Judge’s season potential, the combination of his elite skill set and the vagaries of recovery encourage fantasy owners to keep him on the roster and hope for a strong comeback.
For many fantasy managers, the best course is clear: hold onto Aaron Judge and monitor his progress closely, keeping expectations realistic but hopeful.