Kyren Williams entered the NFL spotlight after being chosen in the fifth round of the 2022 draft, but a high ankle sprain during his debut sidelined him for eight games, delaying his impact. Since then, Williams has proven to be a reliable force for the Los Angeles Rams, scoring 31 touchdowns in 28 regular-season games starting from 2023, while averaging 4.5 yards per carry. This surge in performance has raised questions about his potential for 2025 and whether he is a wise pick with a top-20 draft selection.
Looking ahead to the 2025 season, Williams is entering his age-25 campaign with momentum. Over the past two seasons, only Derrick Henry has more rushing touchdowns than Williams, underscoring his effectiveness near the goal line. The 2024 third-round selection Blake Corum does not currently pose a significant threat to Williams’s role, as Corum has yet to record a meaningful yardage beyond limited touches last season.
The return of quarterback Matthew Stafford is expected to boost Williams’s value, as Stafford’s veteran presence promotes offensive stability. Additionally, with Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams no longer on the roster, the Rams’ receiving corps has shifted focus. Puka Nacua is the primary emerging wide receiver, but there are few other offensive weapons likely to siphon ball usage away from Williams.
Williams has averaged 21.8 touches per game across the last two years, fulfilling the workload expected of a bellcow back, a role increasingly scarce especially among players approaching their physical prime. However, there has been a slight decline in productivity as a receiver, with receptions comprising 9.7% of his touches in 2024, down from 12.3% the previous year. Although Williams has performed consistently, some caution is warranted in evaluating his draft value compared to general consensus.
Concerns Behind Passing on Kyren Williams in Redraft Leagues
Despite Williams’s strong scoring output, there are key reasons to be cautious about selecting him early in 2025 drafts. While he has demonstrated an impressive ability to convert goal-line carries into touchdowns—scoring on 62.5% of attempts inside the five-yard line over two seasons—this efficiency greatly surpasses the NFL average of 43.5% and may not be sustainable. The Rams have ranked 20th in rush rate inside the five-yard line, making this a notable anomaly rather than a consistent trend.
Historical data also illustrates the volatility of such conversion rates. For example, D’Andre Swift scored two touchdowns on ten carries inside the five-yard line for Philadelphia in 2023 but has fewer touchdowns on similar attempts after moving to Chicago in 2024. Saquon Barkley’s touchdown numbers on short-yardage goal-line carries have fluctuated in consecutive years as well, showing how difficult it is to maintain high efficiency in these situations.
The presence of Davante Adams on the Rams roster adds an element of uncertainty regarding Williams’s volume of valuable carries. Although Adams is past his peak years, his skills still command attention and may alter offensive dynamics affecting Williams’s rushing opportunities.
Outside of those close-range scoring chances, Williams’s touchdown production diminishes sharply. Among 29 running backs with over 300 carries and at least one score from five to nineteen yards out in the red zone over two seasons, Williams ranks 21st with only five touchdowns on 83 such carries (a 6% touchdown rate). This suggests limited scoring efficiency beyond his well-known red zone strengths.
While Stafford and Adams may still perform at a high level—Stafford ranked ahead of elite quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes in passer rating from weeks 11 to 18 of the 2024 season, and Adams recorded 40 catches with six touchdown receptions from weeks 13 to 18—the overall offensive environment still introduces risk for Williams’s workload and scoring opportunities.
Adding to the potential volume concerns, the Rams’ incorporation of Auburn rookie Jarquez Hunter, drafted 117th overall in 2024, poses an additional challenge for Williams’s touches. Hunter’s presence could further reduce Williams’s snap share or receiving involvement, compounding the risks of relying heavily on him in a fantasy draft.
Evaluating Kyren Williams’ Role and Future Impact
Kyren Williams stands out as one of the NFL’s more consistent running backs in recent seasons, especially in goal-line situations where he has excelled well beyond league averages. His ability to convert short-yardage attempts into touchdowns has been a defining characteristic, making him a tempting option for fantasy owners seeking reliable scoring production.
However, this exceptional red-zone efficiency may regress, as observed with other top backs, which could affect Williams’s value significantly. His diminishing role in the passing game and increased competition from emerging talent on the Rams add layers of uncertainty. While the return of Matthew Stafford and the presence of high-level wideouts like Puka Nacua offer offensive support, the loss of proven stars Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams creates an evolving receiving landscape that is less predictable.
Due to these factors, teams that prioritize durability and versatility might hesitate to invest a second-round pick solely based on Williams’s rushing touchdown production. His strength lies in steady volume and red-zone prowess, but potential regression in efficiency and shifting offensive priorities could turn his drafting into a high-risk decision.
As the 2025 fantasy football season approaches, careful consideration of Kyren Williams’s role, health, and opportunity will be vital. Those drafting him should weigh the impressive statistical achievements against the possibility of reduced touches and touchdown regression, to decide whether he remains a dependable cornerstone or an overvalued gamble.