The upcoming 2025-26 season will prove crucial for Stuart Skinner as the Edmonton Oilers face a key decision regarding his contract extension. Skinner’s performance during this final year of his current deal will determine whether the team commits to him long-term or explores other options.
Evaluating Skinner’s Performance So Far
Skinner entered the last season of a three-year contract signed in December 2022, carrying a $2.6-million annual cap hit. Over the first two years, he has struggled to firmly establish himself as the Oilers’ definitive No. 1 goaltender. While the team’s overall strength has helped support his numbers, Skinner’s individual statistics paint a mixed picture.
Among 31 goaltenders who played 82 or more games over the past two seasons, Skinner ranks 10th in games played and sixth in wins. However, wins can be influenced by many factors beyond a goaltender’s control. His save percentage of .901 and goals against average of 2.71 place him 22nd and 14th in the league, respectively.
Advanced Metrics Provide Additional Context
To gain a clearer understanding of Skinner’s impact, two advanced goalie metrics—goals saved above average (GSAA) and goalie point shares (GPS)—offer valuable insight. GSAA measures
“the goals this goalie prevented given his save percentage and shots faced vs. the league average save percentage on the same number of shots,”
while GPS estimates
“an estimate of the number of points contributed by a player due to his play in goal.”
Skinner’s GSAA is -2.2, ranking him 22nd among his peers. His GPS score sits in the middle, placing 17th overall. When averaging these statistics with the others, Skinner ranks 15th out of the 31 goalies, reflecting a solid but not outstanding performance as a starting netminder.
Contract Comparisons and Playoff Performance
Despite these middling statistics, Skinner’s performance has arguably outpaced his current contract’s value. The average cap hit for this group of goalies is $4.448 million, significantly higher than Skinner’s $2.6 million annual salary. His playoff showings, however, have been inconsistent, swinging between strong and weak performances.
Possible Contract Extension Scenarios
Forecasts from Evolving Hockey suggest a broad range of potential contract outcomes for Skinner. The most likely scenario is a five-year extension with a $6.817 million cap hit, which carries a 22 percent probability. Beyond this, there are four other contract possibilities, each with at least a 12 percent chance of occurring.
Ultimately, the Oilers’ decision regarding Skinner’s future contract will hinge on his ability to prove himself as a dependable No. 1 goalie during the 2025-26 season. If he succeeds, a lengthy, lucrative deal would align with Edmonton’s interests. Conversely, a shorter-term arrangement or the addition of a new goaltender could indicate a shift away from Skinner.
Looking Ahead to Other Contract Extensions
In addition to Skinner, other key Edmonton Oilers players such as Jake Walman and Connor McDavid are also projected to negotiate contract extensions in the near future. The outcomes for these players will shape the team’s strategy moving forward and impact roster decisions.
The next season will serve as a pivotal period for both Skinner and the Oilers organization, as performances and negotiations during this time are likely to define the team’s goaltending and cap structure for years to come.