Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown, despite early injuries during the last season, closed out strong with touchdown receptions in three consecutive games and scored in two additional contests as the Eagles advanced to their Super Bowl victory. Known as an elite fantasy football asset for six seasons, Brown’s upside remains high, yet last year’s limited target volume raises questions about his ceiling relative to other top WR1 options in fantasy football.
Brown’s fantasy football prospects are bound to scrutiny with concerns about whether he still merits a top-10 selection given the Eagles’ notably low passing attempts compared to other teams.
Should A.J. Brown Be Your First Wide Receiver Pick?
Brown’s performance last year included six finishes inside the top eight at his position and a consistent trend of at least seven touchdown catches in five of his six NFL seasons. Despite these impressive marks, his value at current draft costs is debatable. His 33.2% production over expectation from the previous year seems difficult to repeat, especially considering the Eagles’ offensive scheme relies heavily on the run and efficient defense.
Players in Brown’s tier who serve as justifiable first wide receiver picks include Tee Higgins, Drake London, Davante Adams, and, for some, Nico Collins. While Brown’s physical talent suggests top-tier upside, the team’s passing volume limitations present a challenge to his fantasy ceiling.
Philadelphia’s passing attempts in 2024 ranked last among NFL teams, recording under 450 passes, which starkly contrasts with the 550+ attempts logged by comparable offenses. This discrepancy deposits Brown in a difficult position compared to receivers on teams with higher pass frequencies.
Further uncertainties include potential increased production from teammate DeVonta Smith and whether the Eagles maintain their league-leading time of possession, which has historically reduced passing opportunities.
Brown’s availability also factored into his fantasy output, having missed four games last season and struggling early in the postseason with minimal catches and targets. While Brown’s averages, such as 15.4 yards per reception and superior yards-per-route figures, demonstrate efficiency, whether this translates to top fantasy output depends heavily on volume and game situation.
The emergence of receivers on ascending quarterbacks, like Ladd McConkey, DJ Moore, and Terry McLaurin, poses additional competition for fantasy managers looking to maximize wide receiver production in 2025. Some of these players could outperform Brown based on their projected growth and more favorable offensive roles, leaving Brown’s fantasy owners to potentially regret their selection.
Detailed Projection from Analyst Dan Fornek on Brown’s 2024 Season
Despite missing four games due to a knee injury, Brown maintained efficiency and finished as the WR12 in PPR points per game, averaging 16.7 points despite limited targets (97), receptions (67), yards (1,079), and touchdowns (seven). His target share was impressive at 34.4%, and he led with a 47.0% air yards share among wide receivers on his team.
Among all NFL wideouts, Brown ranked second in yards per route run (3.16), fourth in yards per target (11.1), and first in yards per team pass attempt (3.49), underscoring his overall high efficiency when on the field.
The Eagles’ offensive system will continue in a similar fashion for the upcoming season, with changes limited to the addition of right guard Mekhi Becton and new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. However, the defense experienced key personnel losses, including pass rushers Milton Williams and Josh Sweat, which could force the offense into more pass attempts if games become closer and less controlled ground contests.
Brown remains the primary receiving option in Philadelphia’s offense, recognized as one of the NFL’s most efficient wide receivers. Should he overcome injury concerns and the team shift toward a more pass-heavy strategy, Brown could reestablish himself as a top-five fantasy wide receiver. Though his overall volume may not reach elite WR1 levels, his first two-round selection value in fantasy drafts remains intact.
Implications for Fantasy Managers and Future Outlook
For fantasy football managers, A.J. Brown presents a complex decision. His blend of efficient production and physical ability is offset by limited passing volume in an offense that favors ball control and rushing. This raises uncertainty about how much upside he holds compared to receivers in more prolific passing attacks.
Brown’s health will be a crucial factor this year, as staying on the field will be key to capitalizing on his skill set. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ evolving roster and a potentially less dominant defense might necessitate greater passing volume, which could benefit Brown’s fantasy prospects significantly.
As a result, managers must weigh Brown’s proven talents against the unknowns of surrounding offensive dynamics and competition from emerging talents elsewhere in the league. While Brown may not be a guaranteed top-10 pick for all, his upside ensures he remains a valuable asset worth consideration early in fantasy drafts.