Throughout the offseason, the St. Louis Cardinals emphasized that Jordan Walker‘s critical 2025 development runway required him to receive over 600 plate appearances as a firm expectation, not just a goal. As the season reaches late May, with the Cardinals performing above .500, the team faces the dilemma of whether to continue supporting Walker despite his ongoing struggles at the plate.
The Challenge of Maintaining Confidence in Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker’s offensive performance this year has been particularly difficult, overshadowing defensive improvements that have shown promise. Currently, Walker is hitting .194/.257/.281 with a .537 OPS and striking out in nearly one-third of his plate appearances. His 53 wRC+ places him near the bottom among players with over 100 plate appearances this season, ranking 241st in batting average and 257th in weighted runs created plus. If his current numbers persist over 300 plate appearances, Walker would land within the lowest 2% of qualifying hitters over the past 125 years.
Despite these alarming statistics, the Cardinals have not yet ended the runway they committed to Walker, though the pressure is mounting to see significant improvement or risk reassessing his role. The team’s current success complicates the decision, as they must weigh the value of sustained development against the immediate need to maintain a competitive roster.
When Sustained Development Remains Vital Yet Limited
Walker does not have to transform into an offensive powerhouse to justify continued playing time, but his current level of performance—47% below league average—is unsustainable. While some might criticize the Cardinals for retreating from their offseason promises, adjusting expectations in the face of Walker’s struggles is a reasonable course. The window for patience will likely close by mid-June if progress remains absent, as St. Louis must balance his development with their playoff aspirations.
General Manager John Mozeliak acknowledges this precarious position, stating,
“Right now, we’re trying to straddle that fence. By mid-June, there might be a fork in the road for us, but at this point we can at least provide ourselves that opportunity to try (to do both).”
Mozeliak’s cautious approach reflects the tension between nurturing a young prospect and facing the realities of winning at the major league level.
A History of Quick Decisions Has Complicated Walker’s Growth
The Cardinals’ past pattern of rapidly turning away from struggling young players has often resulted in stunted growth and success elsewhere. In Walker’s case, both of his previous big league stints concluded with demotions by late April due to underperformance, despite his intended status as a long-term cornerstone. While these demotions were justified by his on-field struggles, the Cardinals’ impatience contrasts with a more developmental approach that might yield better results.
Learning from Comparable Experiences: The Case of Jackson Chourio
The Milwaukee Brewers’ handling of Jackson Chourio last season provides a compelling comparison. Chourio’s early struggles closely mirrored Walker’s difficulties, with a .210/.254/.327 slash and a 61 wRC+ by the end of May, comparable to Walker’s current ineffectiveness. However, the Brewers chose to extend Chourio’s runway rather than pulling him down, a decision that paid off as Chourio went on to dramatically improve, finishing the season with a .303/.358/.525 slash.
While Walker may not replicate such a turnaround, this example sets a precedent for sustained patience with young players who start poorly but have potential to improve. The difference in treatment underscores the Cardinals’ past impatience compared to a more long-term developmental strategy.
Walker’s Youth and Experience in Context
At just over 23 years old, Walker is younger than many of his contemporaries who have yet to break into the majors, including prospects like Dalton Rushing, Matt Shaw, Drake Baldwin, and several others. With 795 career plate appearances in 209 big league games, Walker has amassed more major league experience at his age than most peers.
Several players who accumulated similar or fewer plate appearances at age 23, while performing at or below Walker’s current level, later achieved successful careers. Notably, Walker’s career 94 wRC+ through this point surpasses that of several future All-Stars and Hall of Famers like Ivan Rodriguez, Melky Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Roberto Clemente, Sammy Sosa, and Brooks Robinson, among others. This historical context suggests that early struggles do not necessarily determine a player‘s long-term fate.
Weighing Patience with Performance Moving Forward
The Cardinals face a delicate balance: continuing to provide Jordan Walker the runway he needs to develop versus responding to his significant offensive struggles. Given his youth and potential, extending that runway remains sensible. However, if Walker fails to improve substantially in the coming weeks, another demotion to Triple-A may be necessary to recalibrate his progress. Such a decision would not contradict the team’s initial intentions but rather acknowledge the limits of patience amid competitive pressures.
St. Louis’ approach to Walker’s critical 2025 development runway remains measured but increasingly urgent. The organization’s willingness to hold firm on their commitment indicates faith in his long-term potential, while the looming timeline reinforces that results at the plate must improve soon to justify his place on the roster moving forward.