Despite a challenging start to the 2025 season, Juan Soto’s advanced metrics signal a looming resurgence, underscoring the story behind his early struggles and upcoming breakout. As one of only two players ranked in the 90th percentile for both hard-hit rate and low chase rate this year, Soto’s performance merits close attention.
Comparative Performance Highlights in the 2025 Season
In Major League Baseball this season, only Kyle Schwarber and Juan Soto stand out with elite marks in both hard-hit rate and plate discipline. Schwarber is thriving, currently sixth in league wRC+ and sharing the league lead in home runs. Contributing heavily to a Phillies offense that tops the National League East, Schwarber’s .974 OPS sets a foundation for a lucrative contract renewal.
Meanwhile, despite having signed a historic contract with the New York Mets in December valued at nearly $800 million, Soto’s numbers appear less impressive at first glance. His batting average has dipped to .236, with a slugging percentage falling sharply to .414 from .569 last year, sparking widespread concern among fans and analysts.
Challenges During Soto’s First Subway Series as a Met
Soto’s return to Yankee Stadium—this time donning a Mets uniform—proved difficult. The Bronx crowd’s relentless booing and taunts from the Bleacher Creatures seemed to rattle Soto, who managed just one hit in 10 at-bats over the three-game Subway Series. Despite walking four times, striking out three added to a disappointing performance that coincided with the Mets losing two of three games.
In one pivotal moment during the last game, Soto hit a softly lined ball to Yankees second baseman DJ LeMahieu, who made a tough sliding stop to record the out. Soto’s lack of urgency rounding first base, especially in a close game, drew attention and criticism.
Prior to the series, Soto appeared confident in interviews, with Mets manager Carlos Mendoza praising his ability to ignore distractions. Even his curtain call at the first at-bat, met by boos, did not shake his outward composure, though the discomfort was evident during his time back in the Bronx.
Concerns About Hustle and Aggressiveness on the Field
Soto’s apparent lack of hustle in recent games has raised eyebrows among fans. After a Sunday loss to the Yankees, a fly ball that failed to clear the Green Monster in Fenway Park became a focal point. Soto hesitated as he watched the ball, expecting a homer, but had to settle for a single, fueling debate over his effort. However, Soto promptly stole second base in the next at-bat, showing flashes of competitiveness.
Even with a sprint speed ranking in the 17th percentile, Soto has stolen five bases in the past 10 games, an unusually high number for someone not known for speed. Mets owner Steve Cohen, known for investing heavily in power hitters, signed Soto primarily for his ability to hit, not for his base-stealing prowess.
A notable change this season is the disappearance of Soto’s characteristic “Soto-Shuffle,” a confident routine that fans and commentators have linked to his past success, raising questions about his current mindset at the plate and on the bases.
Analyzing Soto’s Underlying Batted Ball Quality and Plate Discipline
Despite the disappointing results, Soto’s batted ball data tells a different story. While his raw numbers may falter, advanced metrics reveal he remains one of the hardest hitters in baseball. His 40 walks rank tied for third in MLB, reinforcing that he remains an effective on-base threat.
According to Baseball Savant data, Soto’s expected batting average (.300 xBA) ranks within the top 20 qualified hitters, starkly contrasting his actual batting average of .236, which falls to 112th in the league. This 64-point gap is among the largest discrepancies seen, indicating Soto has been exceptionally unlucky this season.
The same data notes Soto’s hard-hit rate standing in the 96th percentile, highlighting his ability to consistently make quality contact while swinging at pitches within and outside the strike zone less often. His chase rate has decreased from 18.3% last year to 15.1% this season, with his whiff rate falling from 21.5% to 19.5%, signaling improved plate discipline.
However, there are areas needing correction: Soto’s bat speed has declined from the 94th percentile to the 71st percentile. This reduction correlates with an increase in poorly timed swings. In 2024, nearly 60% of his swings reached a bat speed of 75 mph or higher, but in 2025 that figure has dropped to 38.1%. Furthermore, he ranks tied for fourth in the league for “swords,” a metric indicating non-competitive swings.
Groundballs have become more frequent, rising from 44.7% to 52.9%, while his launch angle’s effective sweet spot has plummeted from the 65th percentile to the 17th percentile. Simply put, Soto continues to hit the ball hard but with less optimal trajectory, resulting in more grounders and fewer impactful hits.
What Soto’s Start Means for His Future With the Mets
Looking at the broader picture, Juan Soto remains a highly valuable player despite early challenges. At just 26 years old and with seven strong professional seasons behind him, Soto’s 2025 OPS of .777 and wRC+ of 121 indicate he has not become a below-average hitter—just one struggling to replicate his previous peaks with the Mets.
The 52 games played should not be cause for panic among Mets supporters, nor should it be a signal that the franchise’s massive investment is heading toward failure. Although his increased groundball rate warrants observation, Soto possesses the skills and knowledge to adjust and improve his approach, something his track record supports.
Patience will be critical as Soto recalibrates. Eventually, the harder-than-ever-hit balls will translate into consistent offensive production, his confidence will rebound, and he will become the formidable offensive weapon that many anticipated when he signed his record contract last winter.