Kris Bubic has emerged as one of the premier starting pitchers in Major League Baseball during the 2025 season, showcasing notable growth through his pitching evolution and performance statistics. His dominance on the mound is evident across various key metrics, positioning him firmly as a Cy Young Award contender.
This year, Bubic sports a 1.47 ERA, ranking third among all pitchers, while maintaining a WHIP of 1.06, placing him 20th in the league. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) stands at 2.70, eighth-best overall, reflecting his ability to limit damage independent of defensive plays. Advanced stats also highlight his value, with a fanWAR of 1.8 (seventh) and a bWAR of 2.8, which is second in the league and tops in the American League. His strikeout-minus-walk rate (K-BB%) sits at 17.6%, ranking 27th, underscoring his control and strikeout efficiency.
Struggles and Challenges in 2022
The 2022 season was a difficult period for Bubic, who recorded a 5.58 ERA along with a 1.70 WHIP, indicating struggles in both run prevention and base runners allowed. Early in the season, his performance faltered with a 13.14 ERA over his first five starts, which resulted in a brief demotion, first to the bullpen for one game and then to the minors in Omaha for about a month. He was recalled in June due to injuries within the pitching staff and finished the season with a more respectable 4.75 ERA.
During this year, Bubic primarily relied on a fastball, changeup, and curveball. Although his changeup was effective, his curveball and fastball lacked quality, and notably, he avoided throwing his changeup to left-handed hitters. This contributed to severe splits, as lefties compiled a .457 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against him, compared to a .346 wOBA by right-handers. Overall, Bubic’s biggest strength was simply throwing strikes, as his pitches failed to generate weak contact, swinging strikes, or induced chases outside the strike zone.
Key Adjustments and Progress Made in 2023
The departure of coaches Mike Matheny and Cal Eldred in 2023 heralded a new phase of development for Bubic. Early indicators in the season showed promise, sparked by significant changes in his pitching approach. One crucial improvement was the increased pitch extension, meaning Bubic released the ball closer to home plate, giving hitters less time to react despite his relatively modest velocity.
Additionally, Bubic introduced a slider to his repertoire, a pitch he was reportedly discouraged from using under the previous coaching staff. This pitch added a vital chase element, especially effective against left-handers who had previously feasted off his limited arsenal. Although he still rarely deployed his changeup against lefties, the slider’s presence helped reduce their wOBA to .208, a dramatic improvement from the prior season’s figures. Right-handed hitters, however, continued to post a .332 wOBA.
These adjustments contributed to an increase in his chase rate by over 1%, while his whiff rate soared by approximately 7%, marking a clear rise in his overall effectiveness on the mound.
Breakthrough and Refinements During the 2024 Season
Despite spending the 2024 season in the bullpen recovering from Tommy John surgery, Kris Bubic continued to refine his pitching tools and mechanics, demonstrating perseverance and growth. His WHIP and ERA both decreased, while his K-BB% rose, signaling improvements in limiting walks and getting strikeouts.
The most remarkable transformation came with his fastball, which evolved from a mediocre pitch into a reliable weapon. Bubic increased its average velocity from 91.7 to 93.0 miles per hour and retained the enhanced pitch extension achieved the previous year. Moreover, he boosted the fastball’s spin rate by approximately 200 revolutions per minute, elevating its scouting grade from 46 to 63 on a 100-point scale.
Although contact made against his fastball remained strong in some cases, hitters only connected solidly two out of every three swings, an exceptional performance given the pitch type. Moreover, Bubic added a new pitch known as a sweeper, similar to a slider but with greater horizontal movement and less velocity. This pitch induced chases more than half the time it was thrown, and although hitters did not often miss it completely, contact against it rarely translated into damage.
Bubic phased out the slider but used the sweeper as a weapon against both left- and right-handed hitters. As a result, he developed reverse splits—meaning he was more effective against lefties—while continuing to neutralize right-handers better than ever before.
Current Status and Impact Going into 2025
As of 2025, Kris Bubic’s pitching evolution has established him as an elite force. While there have been concerns about adjustments needed as a starter—given that he must mix his slider and sinker more frequently against a broader range of hitters—his core arsenal remains potent. The fastball, changeup, and sweeper continue to serve as his primary weapons, striking a balance between velocity, spin, and movement.
He maintains reverse splits with the slider and sinker still reserved mainly for left-handed batters, despite those pitches being his least effective. His fastball velocity has dipped slightly, but he compensated by increasing the spin and improving the pitch’s vertical movement by two additional inches compared to 2022. This enhancement has resulted in more pop-ups and weak contact. Interestingly, while the sweeper remains underrated in scouting reports, it boasts an above-average effectiveness rating (tjStuff+) and continues to frustrate hitters.
Bubic’s consistent ability to generate whiffs—maintaining above a 30% whiff rate—and his command in the strike zone lead to fewer walks, enabling him to pitch deep into games more reliably. This endurance counters one criticism often leveled at ace Cole Ragans. Behind Bubic’s success is a coaching staff that encouraged innovation and adjustment after 2022, a clear contrast to prior regimes.
The Journey from Prospect to One of Baseball’s Best
Kris Bubic’s transformation from a pitcher struggling in the majors to a front-runner for the Cy Young has been a lengthy and challenging path. Since being selected as a first-round pick in 2018, he has gradually realized the potential many expected from him. His story reflects a combination of resilient self-improvement and a fresh, supportive coaching strategy, particularly evident after changes in the Royals’ staff.
As he continues to excel in 2025, the Royals face the crucial decision of securing Bubic’s future with the club. His sustained success and impact on the mound have made him a fan favorite and one of the game’s top performers. Maintaining this level could cement his status as a key figure for Kansas City in the years ahead.
“He finished 2021 pretty well; he had that no-hitter interrupted by the rainless rain delay in Chicago, but he also had a 2.20 ERA in September.” —Author
“There were rumors Cal Eldred didn’t want him to throw it, but as you can see, it immediately added an element of chase to his arsenal that hadn’t been present before.” —Author
“Bubic has been absolutely fantastic this season. Some of the credit has to go to the coaching staff.” —Author
“Hopefully, the Royals will extend him and keep him in Kansas City long term.” —Author
“He’s been my favorite pitcher since basically his debut, but I hope and expect he’s become a favorite for many other fans, too.” —Author