Graham Ashcraft started the season as a standout performer for the Cincinnati Reds, appearing close to an MVP in his first year as a reliever. Through April, the right-handed pitcher allowed only one earned run across 11 appearances. However, recent struggles suggest his change in pitching approach may be undermining his performance, as key bullpen metrics have worsened.
By late May, Ashcraft still ranks highly in several defensive metrics such as chase rate, ground-ball rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate, reflective of a shutdown reliever’s profile. These numbers were largely buoyed by his early-season dominance when the average exit velocity he surrendered was just 79.3 mph, with only two extra-base hits allowed. Since then, the situation has sharply deteriorated.
Shift from ground-ball focus to power pitching backfires for Ashcraft
Throughout May, Ashcraft has altered his approach by increasing the velocity of his cutter, apparently emphasizing strikeouts more. While this has added speed to his pitches, it has coincided with a troubling rise in hard contact allowed. Nearly half of his cutters this month have been struck at speeds above 95 mph, causing the opponents’ expected batting average against him to jump from .249 to .342.
His slider, which serves as his secondary offering, has also lost some effectiveness since April. Though it still maintains a low expected batting average under .150, the hard-hit rate off this pitch has climbed to 50% in May. Alarmingly, every slider over the previous two weeks was hit hard when contact was made, despite the pitch achieving a 63% strikeout rate in that same timeframe.
Departure from proven strengths undermines Ashcraft’s reliability
Ashcraft has never been known as a strikeout-heavy pitcher, even with his high velocity. Historically, his strikeout rate has ranked near the bottom among relievers, never surpassing the 14th percentile. Instead, his value has stemmed from inducing ground balls, with a ranking in the 92nd percentile in ground-ball rate during the 2022 season, and consistently placing in the top 25% over his short career.
Currently, Ashcraft seems to be drifting away from the traits that made him successful. The earlier version of Ashcraft that thrived in April focused on ground-ball contact and limiting hard hits, contrasting sharply with his May form where strikeout chase dominates at the expense of control and contact quality. Returning to his ground-ball dominance and maintaining low hard-hit rates could help both Ashcraft and the Reds’ bullpen regain stability.
Looking ahead: restoring Ashcraft’s effectiveness is crucial for Reds’ bullpen
If Ashcraft can rediscover his original pitching style centered on ground balls and weak contact, he stands to reclaim his role as a reliable bullpen arm for Cincinnati. This adjustment is essential not only for his personal performance but also for the overall health of the Reds bullpen, which has suffered due to his recent downturn. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Ashcraft can adapt and help reverse the bullpen’s struggles.