As fantasy football managers prepare for the 2025 season, the question of who makes the better breakout wide receiver—Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Rashee Rice—has become a hot topic. Both players showed strong promise in 2024, but changes in team dynamics and health will heavily influence their outlooks in the 2025 fantasy football landscape.

Comparing the 2024 Breakouts of Smith-Njigba and Rice

Jaxon Smith-Njigba made a significant leap in 2024, establishing himself as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver. Initially the third option in Seattle’s passing game during his rookie season, he surpassed established stars D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to become the Seahawks’ primary target in Year 2. Both Metcalf and Lockett have since left Seattle, making Smith-Njigba the clear focal point for the offense.

Meanwhile, Rashee Rice’s 2024 campaign was hampered by injury, limiting him to just a handful of games at full health. Despite this, Rice consistently ranked in the top 16 wide receivers during those appearances and was the overall WR2 in weekly PPR scoring before his injury. With optimism high that Rice will be ready for Week 1 in 2025, fantasy managers are excited about his potential to reach elite production across a full season.

How Each Receiver Fits Into Their Offenses

Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks in targets during 2024, garnering 133 throws his way—a figure placing him in the top dozen among NFL wide receivers. His target share was 21.3%, which is strong, especially considering D.K. Metcalf still commanded nearly 20% of targets before his departure. However, Seattle’s offseason brought a new quarterback and revamped receiving corps, which injects uncertainty into Smith-Njigba’s volume in 2025.

Rashee Rice’s rise came midway through the 2023 season, solidifying himself as Kansas City’s premier receiving option from Week 11 of 2023 through Week 3 of 2024. During that period, Rice led the Chiefs in targets (120), receiving yards (1,110), and touchdowns (six), earning a team-high 25.9% target rate. This level of involvement highlights his critical role should he remain healthy in the upcoming season.

Evaluating Their Production and Consistency

Smith-Njigba’s second year was marked by reliable efficiency, finishing no worse than WR36 in 12 of his 16 games. This steadiness is a valuable trait for fantasy managers looking for dependable weekly output rather than boom-or-bust performances. While his 2024 data provides a solid foundation, direct comparisons with Rice are complicated by Rice’s shorter sample size due to injury.

For Rice, his per-play efficiency ranks among the league’s best wide receivers. Even though he has not yet completed a full season as a consistent starter, his ability to consistently get open and succeed after the catch makes him an exciting prospect. He is a natural fit in Patrick Mahomes’ offense, which is known for maximizing receivers’ strengths.

Impact of Red-Zone Target Competition and Scoring Opportunities

Smith-Njigba served as Seattle’s primary red-zone threat last season, leading the team in red-zone target rate and ranking 18th among all NFL wide receivers in that metric. Despite Seattle ranking near the bottom in red-zone plays, Smith-Njigba converted those opportunities effectively, scoring five of his six touchdowns inside the 20-yard line.

Rice faced more competition near the end zone, yet the Chiefs’ offense is among the league’s most aggressive in red-zone passing attempts, consistently ranking in the top three over the past three years. Rice has capitalized on this, recording nine touchdown receptions in the last two regular seasons—just one fewer than Smith-Njigba—despite missing 14 games during that span.

Quarterback and Team Passing Situation: Stability vs. Transition

The Seattle Seahawks are undergoing a key transition with Sam Darnold set to take over as quarterback in 2025, replacing Geno Smith. Darnold comes off a season with career-best passing grades, even outperforming Patrick Mahomes statistically that year. However, his overall career has been inconsistent, marking Seattle’s quarterback situation as uncertain and a major factor impacting Smith-Njigba’s fantasy outlook.

In contrast, Rashee Rice will continue to play with Patrick Mahomes, one of the most stable and high-performing quarterbacks in the NFL. Mahomes has ranked in the top 10 at his position for the last three seasons, providing Rice with a reliable and potent passing environment. Since 2022, the Chiefs have maintained a 65.3% regular-season pass rate, reinforcing Rice’s opportunity for consistent targets and production.

New Targets and Competition for Receptions in 2025

The departure of Metcalf and Lockett in Seattle clears the way for Smith-Njigba and a new acquisition, Cooper Kupp, to share the spotlight. Kupp is known as a premier target earner, having thrived in Sean McVay’s offense with Matthew Stafford. While adjusting to a new coach and quarterback, Kupp has a history of high involvement when healthy, though his recent injury absences are notable. There remains enough room for both receivers to flourish if they can stay on the field.

In Kansas City, Travis Kelce remains the undeniable centerpiece of the offense, commanding elite target shares and dominating red-zone opportunities. Newcomers Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown offer speed and vertical threats, potentially diverting some high-value targets from Rice. To maintain consistent fantasy success, Rice will need to continue excelling in winning intermediate and short-yardage routes, an area where he already shows strength.

What This Means for Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

Jaxon Smith-Njigba presents a powerful case as a consistent, proven option within a Seattle offense facing notable changes and some uncertainty at quarterback. His demonstrated reliability and red-zone prowess make him a compelling selection despite potential volume fluctuations.

Rashee Rice offers tantalizing upside in a stable, pass-heavy Kansas City offense led by one of the league’s best quarterbacks, but his injury history and competition in the receiver group add some risk. If healthy and available all season, his efficiency and role suggest he could be a major fantasy asset.

For fantasy managers considering early third-round picks, weighing the balance of volume, efficiency, and team stability is crucial. Both Smith-Njigba and Rice represent exciting 2025 breakout candidates, with their ultimate value depending on health, usage, and team development throughout the offseason and early regular season.