Thursday’s MLB slate includes five games, highlighted by a doubleheader between the Braves and Phillies. The second game at 6:45 p.m. ET is set to feature a compelling pitching matchup between Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler, drawing sharp attention for MLB pitcher outs prop picks. Both pitchers, finishing first and second in the 2024 NL Cy Young race, present an intriguing opportunity for bettors targeting the over 17.5 outs prop line in this anticipated contest.
Why the Sale vs. Wheeler Showdown Is a Key Focus for Outs Prop Bets
With the Braves and Phillies battling in a makeup game at 1:05 p.m. ET followed by a rematch later in the evening, the doubleheader puts significant strain on both teams’ bullpens. This scenario typically incentivizes managers to rely heavily on their starters to pitch deep into the game. For Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler, both elite pitchers with high endurance and recent strong performances, this presents a prime chance to surpass the 17.5 outs benchmark.
Targeting pitcher outs props is a preferred strategy in MLB betting, especially on days with fewer games, like Thursday. The limited schedule starting from 6:40 p.m. ET onward still offers valuable opportunities. Sportsbooks widely offer player-specific props, and advanced computer models, like those from SportsLine, simulate games thousands of times to identify profitable plays. These models, coupled with current sportsbook promotions, create a favorable environment for bettors focusing on pitchers’ outs recorded.
How Chris Sale’s Recent Form Supports His Over 17.5 Outs Projection
Chris Sale, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, started the season slowly, failing to exceed 15 outs recorded in each of his first six games, equating to less than five innings per start. However, his recent stretch tells a different story; he’s averaged about 6.2 innings—or roughly 20 outs—over his past five starts. Notably, Sale has surpassed the 17.5 outs mark in four of these appearances, narrowly missing it with a 17-out outing in the other.
The doubleheader context further strengthens the case for Sale pitching deep into the game because both teams will likely attempt to conserve bullpen arms. Sale’s five-day rest before Thursday (instead of the usual four) adds to the expectation that he should last longer. Models project him to throw approximately 5.9 innings and record around 17.7 outs, making the over on this prop a strong contender for bettors.
“[Chris Sale] has found his rhythm and averaged 6.2 innings, or 20 outs recorded, over his last five starts.” —Analyst
Zack Wheeler’s Consistency Against Atlanta Backs the Over Prop
Zack Wheeler enters the Thursday matchup with a strong history against the Braves, having gone over 17.5 outs in four of his last five outings facing Atlanta. His ability to stifle the Braves’ lineup, currently batting just .206 against him, makes him a formidable opponent. Key Atlanta hitters such as Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, and Ozzie Albies all struggle notably versus Wheeler, hitting under .200 collectively.
This season, Wheeler ranks third in the National League for innings pitched, with 70.2 innings logged. Impressively, he has recorded at least 18 outs in each of his last eight starts. Given the doubleheader setting and his stamina, models forecast Wheeler going six innings and surpassing 17.5 outs comfortably. His endurance and recent track record support confidence in the over bet for his outs prop.
Rookie Ryan Gusto Expected to Fall Short of 15.5 Outs on Thursday
Houston’s rookie Ryan Gusto has experienced a challenging season, oscillating between starting and relieving roles. As a reliever, Gusto has been outstanding, posting a 0.93 ERA, but as a starter, his performance has deteriorated, with a 5.96 ERA across six games. His inability to consistently keep opponents off base has limited his outs recorded; he has eclipsed 15 outs only once in those starts.
Gusto also ranks near the bottom league-wide in hits allowed per nine innings (9.7) and walks (4.1 BB/9) for pitchers qualifying by innings. SportsLine’s simulations suggest he will not clear even 14.5 outs on Thursday, making the under 15.5 outs prop an appealing wager. This selection fits the profile of a pitcher struggling to command innings length during starts.
“Gusto has excelled in the latter, with a 0.93 ERA but has struggled immensely as a starter with a 5.96 ERA across six starts.” —Data Scientist
Combining Outs Props into a High-Value Parlay Option
Besides individual bets, fans of MLB props can combine Sale’s and Wheeler’s overs with Gusto’s under into a single parlay, currently offered at around +408 odds. A $100 stake on this trio would yield more than $400 if all three predictions hold. Such parlay opportunities maximize potential returns and add excitement to Thursday’s slate, even with only five games taking place.
Model Accuracy and Additional Resources for MLB Props
SportsLine’s advanced model has achieved a solid 56 percent success rate on top-rated MLB picks this season, including a 15.75-unit gain on home run prop bets over the past 51 days. These consistent results help bettors make informed decisions, especially when focusing on nuanced props like pitcher outs. Additionally, users can explore further picks from acclaimed MLB analysts like Matt Severance and Jacob Fetner for added insight during Thursday’s games.
Looking ahead, the Sale versus Wheeler duel will not only impact the outcome of this critical game between the Braves and Phillies but also offers a fascinating case study in pitching endurance under doubleheader conditions. Betting markets are likely to respond dynamically as game conditions and pitcher performances unfold, keeping fans and bettors intensely engaged throughout the day’s action.