Joe Ryan, the Minnesota Twins right-hander, has established himself as one of the American League’s most reliable pitchers, showcasing significant progress since his major league debut in September 2021. This season, Ryan boasts a 5-2 record, accompanied by a 2.57 ERA, a 3.19 FIP, and an impressive 29.8% strikeout rate over 63 innings. Across his career, his stats include a 3.76 ERA and 3.77 FIP over 533 1/3 innings, primarily as a starter, with a rare appearance as a bulk reliever during a resumed suspended game earlier this month. His continuous improvement highlights the importance of Joe Ryan pitching evolution and scouting insights in understanding his unexpected growth.
From Overlooked Prospect to Major League Starter
Originally drafted 210th overall by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018 out of California State Stanislaus, Ryan’s prospect status was modest at best. While he performed well in the minors, he flew under the radar for many scouts and analysts. Back in March 2020, when preliminary Top Prospects lists were released, Rays prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen ranked Ryan as 13th in the organization with a 45+ Future Value score, despite acknowledging the depth of the Rays’ farm system. Subsequently, Ryan was traded to the Minnesota Twins in July 2021 as part of a deal for Nelson Cruz, marking a turning point in his career trajectory and opportunity for growth.
Reviewing Ryan’s 2020 FanGraphs Scouting Assessment
Curious about how Ryan’s early scouting reports compared to his current performance, insights from the 2020 FanGraphs evaluation shed light on his developmental path. According to the report, Ryan had dominated Midwest League hitters in April of that year before quickly advancing to High-A Port Charlotte, where he continued his success by striking out 35% of Florida State League batters in about a dozen appearances.
“Ryan dominated Midwest League hitters in April, then was quickly moved to High-A Port Charlotte, where he continued to mow through Florida State League hitters, striking out 35% of them during his first dozen appearances.”
Ryan’s Own Perspective on His Early Pitching Style
Looking back, Ryan acknowledges that his approach was heavily dependent on his fastball, deliberately limiting his use of offspeed pitches as he focused on refining his primary weapon. He explained that watching Brendan McKay’s fastball success encouraged him to lean more on his heater and defer mastering his secondary offerings until reaching the major leagues or higher minors.
“I was mostly just using my fastball,”
Ryan recalled.
I knew that Brendan McKay was moving up really quickly using his fastball, so I decided not to throw a lot of offspeed. I figured I’d just learn my offspeed in the big leagues, or whichever level I needed to.”
Questions About the Effectiveness of Ryan’s Fastball
Despite Ryan’s reliance on his heater early in his career, analysts expressed puzzlement over the fastball’s effectiveness, noting that it did not possess standout velocity or movement according to pitch data. Yet, Ryan’s craftiness and technique generated results beyond what raw data suggested.
“He did most of his damage with the fastball, which was puzzling because Ryan’s heater doesn’t seem remarkable in any way, even in light of the pitch data I’ve sourced.”
Ryan himself questioned how data is sometimes overemphasized, privileging or limiting players based on numbers rather than observable performance and game situations. Reflecting on his career shift after the trade, he admitted that if he had stayed with the Rays, he might still be stuck in Triple-A Durham rather than pitching in the majors.
“I think data got a little overused, and still is overused in a quite a few areas,”
Ryan said.
I think the game tells you everything you need to know a lot of the time. Certain guys get more opportunities because of the data, and certain guys are more restricted because of the data. If I were with the Rays, I’d probably still be in [Triple-A] Durham. So yeah, I’m glad I’m here. I’m glad I’m able to pitch in the big leagues. It’s definitely more fun.”
Unique Mechanics Contributing to Ryan’s Success
The scouting report highlighted that Ryan’s arm action and release point give his fastball a distinctive quality, making the pitch jump on hitters despite lacking elite velocity. This subtle deception helps explain why he is able to get outs effectively at the major league level.
“His arm stroke is curt and the ball just kind of jumps on hitters, so perhaps that’s contributing to its effectiveness, but it’s not such a unique look as to satisfactorily explain this level of dominance.”
Ryan agreed that there is more to pitching success than what scouts or data can always measure, noting that factors such as his release extension and vertical axis acceleration provide partial explanations, in addition to the curveball he was already throwing at the time.
“I mean, it just shows that they don’t know everything that’s going on,”
Ryan reasoned.
But yeah, extension, VAA, and some other things partly answer that question. There’s more to it than just… and I was throwing a big curveball back then, too. That might have added some level of deception.”
Supporting Pitches and Their Role in Ryan’s Arsenal
The 2020 report described Ryan’s secondary pitches—a low-70s curveball, the occasional cutter, and changeup—as adequate but not exceptional. Ryan noted he used those pitches mainly to keep hitters off balance and maintain focus on his fastball.
“I was just throwing those to keep them off the heater,”
Ryan stated.
But a lot of guys throw that. You’re watching [Yoshinobu] Yamamoto throw a low-70s curveball right now and have a lot of success. Obviously, his is a lot nastier than mine was. Freddy Peralta’s curveball, same thing. I used to watch a lot of Aaron Nola and he’d throw that curveball in there. Those guys all have better curveballs than I do.”
Coaching Influence and Pitching Strategy Development
Ryan emphasized the importance of coaching in shaping his pitching approach. He credited his High-A pitching coach Doc Watson with teaching him how to attack hitters effectively and focus on leveraging his fastball as his primary weapon. Watson’s guidance helped Ryan understand the value of pitching to his strengths rather than trying to perfect every pitch immediately.
“Again, I was going to start throwing more offspeed when the game told me I needed to. I wanted to see how far I could go just throwing heaters. I mean, I would work on my stuff the whole time. The pitching coach I had in High-A, Doc Watson, was one of the best pitching coaches I’ve had. We talked a lot about pitching and learning how to attack hitters properly. Pitching to my strengths was a big part of that. In my worst outing, I was throwing curveballs, changeups, and sliders — I wasn’t attacking with my fastball — and he told me that I should be throwing my fastball more.”
Analyst’s Projection and Ryan’s Reflection on Past Assessments
The analyst from 2020 projected Ryan as a strike-throwing No. 4 or No. 5 starter, a realistic evaluation based on his tools and pitching style at the time.
“I have him in as a strike-throwing No. 4/5 starter.”
Ryan, reflecting on the early scouting commentary, expressed a lack of familiarity with such reports back then, emphasizing that he paid little attention to them, especially from fan-oriented sources.
“Whatever they said then is what they said,”
Ryan said.
I’ve never read a lot of that stuff. I don’t know if I even knew what FanGraphs was at that time.”
Implications of Ryan’s Growth and Future Prospects
Joe Ryan’s trajectory from a mid-level prospect to a dependable major league starter highlights the unpredictability and complexity of player development. His story underscores how scouting reports and data provide valuable frameworks, yet they cannot fully capture a player’s adaptability, work ethic, and in-game adjustments.
As Ryan continues to refine his skills with the Minnesota Twins, his evolution offers lessons on the interplay between talent, coaching, and opportunity. Observers will be keen to see how his pitching strategies evolve further and whether he can maintain his current level of performance against increasingly skilled competition within the AL Central and beyond.