In the first two months of the 2025 MLB season, Juan Soto’s performance has been notably disappointing, falling well below the projections based on his previous achievements. At 26 years old, Soto has posted a batting line of .224/.352/.393, with a weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of 113, ranking him just 85th among all players, and a weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .330, placing him 86th. These figures demonstrate a clear underperformance compared to expectations set for one of baseball’s top hitters.
Understanding the Role of Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA)
To better assess a hitter’s true skill level beyond traditional statistics, analysts often turn to expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). According to MLB’s Statcast glossary:
“xwOBA is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed. In the same way that each batted ball is assigned an xBA, every batted ball is given a single, double, triple and home run probability based on the results of comparable batted balls since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015. xwOBA also factors in real-world walk and strikeout numbers, and is reported on the wOBA scale. By comparing expected numbers to actual outcomes over a period of time, it can be possible to identify which hitters (or pitchers) are over- or underperforming their demonstrated skill.” —MLB Statcast Glossary
This metric incorporates the quality of contact Soto makes, such as how hard and at what angle he hits the ball, alongside his speed, walks, and strikeouts, offering a refined expectation of how well he should be performing.
Soto’s Significant Gap Between Expected and Actual Performance
Despite the lackluster actual outcomes, Soto’s xwOBA sits at an impressive .420, placing him fifth among qualified hitters this season, indicating that his underlying skills remain elite. However, his current wOBA is only .330, meaning he is underperforming his expected value by 90 points, second only to Salvador Perez’s negative differential in this category. This shows a striking contrast between the quality of his contact and the results reflected on the field.
Recent Struggles Highlighting the Slump
The slump has intensified since May 10, shortly after a bright stretch where Soto hit three home runs across two games. Since then, his batting stats have plummeted to a .119/.260/.136 line, with a .198 wOBA and an extremely low 24 wRC+. Over this period, among 188 qualified hitters, Soto ranks 185th in wRC+, underscoring how deeply his production has dropped.
Assessing Soto’s Plate Discipline and Contact Quality
Reviewing Statcast’s rolling xwOBA leaderboard reveals that although Soto’s recent output has worsened, the gap between his actual production and expected performance remains significant. This suggests that even in the slump, his quality of contact and plate discipline have not deteriorated as sharply as the results imply. Both Soto’s current depressed form and his underlying contact metrics confirm that he is hitting the ball better than the numbers show.
Outlook for Soto’s Season and Potential Recovery
If Juan Soto manages to return to his typical performance levels, the remainder of his 2025 season could be far more exciting than its slow start. Given his strong underpinning skills demonstrated by his xwOBA, a rebound seems plausible, promising a more consistent production that aligns closer to expectations. Such a climb back would not only boost his individual impact but also enhance the overall fan experience with his play.