As the 2025 NFL season approaches, questions linger about whether Lamar Jackson’s Super Bowl window remains open while he aims for significant rushing milestones. The Baltimore Ravens quarterback, known for his rushing prowess and dynamic dual-threat style, faces a critical period as he balances maintaining elite performance with the inevitable effects of aging.

Lamar Jackson’s Quest for a Super Bowl Victory and Rushing Records

Lamar Jackson has already cemented his place in NFL history with two MVP awards and a record-breaking career as the all-time leading quarterback rusher, surpassing Michael Vick on Christmas Day last season. Despite these achievements, the Super Bowl title remains elusive, continuing to be the pinnacle challenge in his career. Since being drafted in 2018, Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens have amassed 78 regular-season wins—the most recorded by any NFL team over seven seasons without reaching the Super Bowl.

The 2024 season represented the Ravens’ strongest championship opportunity yet. Jackson paired with Derrick Henry, forming one of the most electrifying offensive tandems ever seen in the league. Together, they elevated the Ravens’ offense dramatically. Jackson made history by becoming the first quarterback to exceed both 4,000 passing yards and 800 rushing yards in a single season. His exceptional efficiency was evident as he led the NFL in yards per pass attempt and yards per rush attempt while posting the fourth-best single-season passer rating in NFL history at 119.6.

Jackson’s performance continues to thrive, aided by his extraordinary skill set and arguably the finest supporting cast he has ever had. Despite this momentum, surpassing the playoff barrier remains essential for him to secure a championship. Continued high-level play is crucial as the Ravens’ push for the Super Bowl hinges on his ability to deliver in the postseason.

Sportsbooks echo confidence in Jackson’s ongoing excellence—he is the overwhelming favorite to win a third NFL MVP award, with odds of +500 according to FanDuel. The Ravens are also tied with the Buffalo Bills for the best odds to win the AFC at +360 and share Super Bowl favoritism (+700) alongside the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Impact of Age on Jackson’s Dual-Threat Skill Set

As the most prolific dual-threat quarterback in NFL history, the question arises: how much longer can Lamar Jackson maintain his rushing capabilities before age begins to catch up? Understanding this is key to evaluating his Super Bowl prospects as he approaches his late twenties.

Examining the career rushing trends of the top 10 NFL quarterback rushing leaders (excluding Jackson and Josh Allen, who are still active), reveals common benchmarks where rushing effectiveness declines, notably around ages 27 and 32. This group includes legends such as Michael Vick, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and Randall Cunningham.

Career rushing yards among these top quarterbacks include Michael Vick (6,109), Cam Newton (5,628), Russell Wilson (5,462), Randall Cunningham (4,928), Steve Young (4,239), Fran Tarkenton (3,674), Steve McNair (3,590), Aaron Rodgers (3,573), Donovan McNabb (3,459), and John Elway (3,407). These figures provide context for Jackson’s current 6,193 career rushing yards and his pursuit of 10,000 rushing yards.

Trends in Decline: Age and Rushing Yardage per Start

Data shows a distinct pattern in rushing yards per start across different age ranges for these quarterbacks: an average of 34.8 yards per start from age 21 to 26, dropping to 24.9 yards from 27 to 31, then plunging to 14.2 yards after age 32. These declines align with notable turning points in many players’ careers.

For example, Donovan McNabb’s rushing effectiveness fell sharply after age 27, from over 35 yards per start to about 13. Despite this decline, he still appeared in a Super Bowl at age 28. Cam Newton’s rushing regressed after age 29, Randall Cunningham experienced a drastic drop after age 30 following an ACL injury, and Steve McNair’s last impactful rushing season occurred at age 30. Meanwhile, Steve Young, Aaron Rodgers, and John Elway achieved Super Bowl wins or MVP honors into their mid-to-late thirties, but their games featured less emphasis on rushing than Jackson’s does.

Michael Vick’s career trajectory is difficult to analyze fully due to prison time interrupting his prime years, although he remains a valuable case study in a quarterback’s rushing longevity.

When Do Rushing Declines Typically Occur?

Specific rushing yard declines by player illuminate when rushing skills typically wane. Donovan McNabb’s yards per start dropped from 35.5 to 12.6; Fran Tarkenton’s from 23.7 to 10.0; Cam Newton’s remained relatively steady at 39.9 versus 35.8. Randall Cunningham, Steve McNair, Michael Vick, and Russell Wilson also exhibited varying degrees of decline in their rushing production around and after age 30.

Currently 28 years old, Jackson is positioned near the first major “cliff” of rushing decline identified in this group’s history. This data suggests his rushing effectiveness could diminish within the next couple of years, followed by a more severe drop in his early thirties. This evolution underscores that the Ravens’ optimal Super Bowl opportunity aligns with Jackson’s present stage of play.

Current Status of Lamar Jackson’s Rushing Performance

Despite slight decreases in rushing yards per game during the last two seasons, these changes may result more from strategic shifts under offensive coordinator Todd Monken and efforts to preserve Jackson’s durability than from natural decline. His career rushing average remains an impressive 70.5 yards per start in younger years, tapering to about 52.6 yards in recent seasons.

Jackson’s ability to outperform expectations remains noteworthy. According to NFL Pro Insights, in the previous season he averaged two yards over expectation per rushing attempt, with over 40% of his runs clocked at speeds above 15 miles per hour. While this does not match the peak rushing explosiveness of his 2019 MVP season, it indicates sustained elite-level performance over multiple seasons.

Jackson’s running style, marked by agility and speed, continues to be evident on tape, as highlighted by his long runs such as the one against the Texans on Christmas last year.

Injuries have not significantly hindered Jackson’s rushing ability to this point—aside from an ankle injury in 2021 and a knee sprain in 2022, he has remained relatively healthy. This durability could extend his running effectiveness and keep his Super Bowl chase viable into his thirties.

Projected Path to 10,000 Career Rushing Yards

Currently, Jackson has amassed 6,193 rushing yards. Reaching 10,000 yards would establish an unprecedented quarterback record, likely standing for years. The timeline to this milestone depends on his rushing output per game:

• Maintaining about 50 rushing yards per game would see Jackson reach 10,000 career rushing yards slightly past 2030, when he is 33 years old.
• If his output declines to 40 yards per game, the milestone would come near the end of 2031, at age 34.
• A further drop to 30 rushing yards per game would push the milestone payday to late 2033, when Jackson would be 36.

The Future: Balancing Longevity, Rushing Milestones, and Championship Aspirations

Lamar Jackson has continually exceeded expectations throughout his career, making it plausible that his rushing prime could extend into his thirties. Achieving the 10,000-yard rushing landmark is a realistic goal if he remains healthy and effective on the ground. Nevertheless, the unavoidable presence of Father Time may force a gradual decrease in his rushing impact, which could narrow his Super Bowl window.

For the Baltimore Ravens, the current moment stands as the most promising opportunity to capitalize on Jackson’s skill set and hunger for a championship. How Jackson manages his rushing workload and adapts to physical changes will likely determine how much longer the Ravens can contend at the highest level. Fans and analysts alike will be watching closely to see if this chapter of Jackson’s career culminates in the elusive Super Bowl victory alongside breaking new rushing records.