Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu, who already has 13 home runs this season, is among the top MLB home run picks for May 30. Abreu will try to extend his power surge when Boston faces the Atlanta Braves on Friday, with odds currently set at +350 for him to hit a home run. This outlook comes as part of a wide slate of MLB home run betting opportunities fueled by detailed projections and favorable matchups.
Friday’s Leading Home Run Candidates and Their Matchups
Last season, Abreu hit 15 home runs across 132 games but has nearly matched that total already with 13 homers through just 55 games in 2025. His recent form has been impressive, including four home runs in the past 19 games. Abreu’s road performance and right-handed pitching matchups make Friday’s game against the Braves ideal for him to add to his tally. Sports analysts and models give him strong odds, reflecting his power-hitting pace and promising conditions against Atlanta’s pitching staff.
The MLB schedule on May 30 features all teams in action, presenting numerous home run props for bettors to consider. First-time users can leverage promotional offers from sportsbooks like DraftKings and Fanatics Sportsbook to enhance their wagering experience. Utilizing analytics-driven models such as SportsLine’s projection system can help identify high-value home run picks and better inform betting strategies.
Data-Driven Projections Back Top Home Run Bets for Friday
SportsLine’s proprietary projection model simulates every game 10,000 times, offering a statistically solid foundation for betting choices. The model has played a successful streak betting on MLB home runs, gaining 24.35 units over the past 52 days and correctly predicting multiple home run bets on the previous Thursday.
The top MLB home run picks for Friday, according to the model, include Marcell Ozuna (+390), Wilyer Abreu (+350), and Ketel Marte (+425). Additionally, bettors can combine these selections into parlays with substantial combined odds, such as +11467 at bet365, though these odds may fluctuate.
Analysis of Marcell Ozuna’s Home Run Potential
Marcell Ozuna has hit nine home runs this season, including three in the last two weeks. He carries an impressive batting average of .286 when facing right-handed pitchers, which accounts for the majority of his homers. While Ozuna’s performance is stronger at home with a .318 average compared to .242 on the road, he has previous success against Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito, having homered off him before.
SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner provided insight, stating,
“Red Sox SP Lucas Giolito is coming off a strong start, but he allowed 3 HRs the previous start,”
and added,
“Giolito led all pitchers in 2023 with 41 home runs allowed before missing 2024 with TJ surgery.”
This history suggests Ozuna could have a favorable opportunity to hit another home run on Friday.
Wilyer Abreu’s Strengths and Matchup Advantages
Abreu is a key power hitter in Boston’s lineup, having homered exclusively against right-handed pitchers this season. He generally performs better on the road, and Friday’s game in Atlanta suits this trend perfectly. In May alone, 35% of his hits have been home runs, underscoring his current strength as a power threat.
Jacob Fetner explained the pitching matchup, noting,
“Grant Holmes has pitched well this season for the Braves, but he has allowed 10 HRs this season, so he is somewhat prone to giving up the long ball,”
and remarked,
“With hitter friendly weather expected in Atlanta, we set the line at +360 for Abreu to homer.”
This combination of factors makes Abreu attractive for those building MLB home run bets on Friday.
Ketel Marte’s Rising Power Numbers with the Diamondbacks
While teammates Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suarez often receive more attention for their home run totals, Ketel Marte stands out with eight homers despite appearing in just 30 games this year due to injury. Marte finished strong last week, hitting back-to-back home runs in starts against the Cardinals and Dodgers. He has also performed well historically against Nationals starter Jake Irvin, going 4-for-9 with a homer.
Fetner highlighted Marte’s left-handed power, stating,
“Marte is hitting .309 with 7 out of 8 of his HRs hit this season coming as a left-handed batter vs. right-handed pitching,”
reflecting Marte’s effectiveness against righties and his ability to capitalize on favorable matchups.
Recommended Platforms for MLB Prop Betting on May 30
Bettors looking to place MLB player prop bets on Friday have several sportsbooks offering promotions to optimize their experience. Caesars offers a
“Bet $1, double your winnings next 10 bets”
promo with code CBSDYW. BetMGM guarantees up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if the first wager loses, using code CBSSPORTS.
FanDuel provides a “Bet $5, Get $200” bonus if the initial bet wins, requiring no promo code. DraftKings offers a similar “Bet $5, Get $200” promotion instantly, also with no code needed. Fanatics features No Sweat Bets up to $1,000 which require no code, and bet365 presents a “Bet $5, Get $150” bonus regardless of win or loss, available with the promo code CBSBET365.
Expanding Your MLB Home Run Betting Strategy
Beyond these highlighted players, SportsLine offers projections for countless MLB player props on every game this Friday, helping bettors refine their choices well past initial home run picks. These data-informed insights can be critical to gaining an edge in MLB betting markets as the season progresses.
With Wilyer Abreu leading the charge among top favorites and supported by robust analysis, bettors have strong reasons to consider his home run potential on May 30. Abreu’s impressive pace, combined with a favorable matchup and attractive odds, makes him a must-watch candidate for hopeful MLB props players this Friday.