As fantasy football managers prepare for the 2025 season, a critical decision emerges regarding wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Tetairoa McMillan. Worthy’s promising second NFL season looms after a strong rookie finish, positioning him as a rising talent in the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense. Meanwhile, rookie Tetairoa McMillan steps into a wide-open Carolina Panthers receiving corps with expectations to become the team’s primary target immediately.
This analysis examines which player offers more value at the top of the fourth round in fantasy drafts, considering recent performances, team contexts, and future roles.
Early NFL Impact: Worthy’s Rookie Momentum vs. McMillan’s Fresh Start
Worthy entered the NFL in 2024 amid injuries to key Chiefs receivers Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown and capitalized on the opportunity with six top-25 fantasy finishes. He peaked late in the season, ranking as the PPR wide receiver 10 from Weeks 15–17, including an impressive Super Bowl performance with 157 receiving yards and two touchdowns. This steady rise into a dependable role fuels confidence in his sophomore campaign.
Conversely, McMillan arrives as the Panthers’ eighth overall pick with no NFL experience but outstanding college credentials from Arizona. Given Carolina’s lack of a dominant receiving option in 2024—where veteran Adam Thielen finished as the WR25 in points per game—the stage is set for McMillan to assert himself as the Panthers’ top receiving threat early on.
Roles in Their Respective Offenses and Target Volume
Worthy began his rookie season as a rotational option, averaging 3.8 targets per game and serving primarily as a deep threat with a 26.3% deep target rate. After Rice’s injury, Worthy’s role expanded dramatically, seeing 6.7 targets per game and a more versatile role evidenced by a reduction in deep target percentage to 16.2%. This shift suggests the Chiefs increasingly deployed him across various routes rather than only deep plays.
McMillan comes from a prolific college career, averaging more than 100 receiving yards per game for two straight seasons at Arizona. Carolina’s 2024 target leaders never surpassed 81 targets, highlighting a clear opportunity for McMillan, especially with Thielen entering his mid-30s and falling to a WR70 ADP in drafts. McMillan’s upside is tied to stepping into a leading role on a team seeking a dependable receiving option.
Statistical Production: Progression and Big-Game Impact
During his rookie season, Worthy’s yardage increased steadily, from 27.3 yards per game in the first ten weeks to 49 yards per game in the latter half of the regular season. His playoff surge intensified this trend, averaging nearly 96 yards per game, showcasing an ability to elevate his performance in high-stakes moments. His yards per route run (2.93) and receiving grade of 87.8 over those postseason games highlight efficiency and skill growth.
At Arizona, McMillan amassed 3,414 receiving yards and 26 touchdowns over three seasons, which ranks him among the most productive receivers entering Carolina since D.J. Moore’s 2018 arrival. This level of college success strongly projects McMillan as a primary passing option poised to replace Carolina’s underwhelming leading receivers of recent years.
Red-Zone Usage and Touchdown Potential
Worthy’s nine touchdowns as a rookie, including three in playoff games, emphasize his red-zone role, where he registered 23 total red-zone touches—second on the Chiefs. His involvement as a rusher offers extra value, with eight carries including a rushing touchdown and five red-zone receiving scores. His 20 regular-season carries tied for second-most among wide receivers league-wide, an uncommon trait boosting his fantasy floor.
McMillan also boasts significant red-zone efficiency, having led Arizona in red-zone targets in 2024 and tying for the team lead in red-zone looks since 2021. Fourteen of his 26 collegiate touchdowns came from this area. With Carolina ranking third in red-zone passing rate (61.5%) last season and the departure of Diontae Johnson, McMillan appears positioned to emerge as the Panthers’ go-to scorer near the goal line in 2025.
Quarterback Influence and Team Passing Dynamics
The Chiefs maintain a stable and elite passing environment behind Patrick Mahomes, who has led the league with high passing volume since 2022. Kansas City’s offense runs a high pass rate of 65.3%, the third highest in the NFL. Worthy benefits from this stability, operating as both the primary deep threat and the top option on passes behind the line of scrimmage—the latter category he led alongside Ja’Marr Chase.
Carolina’s quarterback situation centers on Bryce Young, whose rookie struggles were offset by a strong second half of 2024, with an 83.7 passing grade post-Week 7 ranking sixth-best in the NFL. Despite a shaky start, Young’s progress reassures Panthers fans and fantasy managers that he may now provide the consistent play necessary for McMillan to thrive.
Competition for Targets: Challenges and Opportunities in 2025
A key risk for Worthy’s 2025 outlook is the return of Rashee Rice, expected to reclaim a significant share of targets alongside Marquise Brown. Travis Kelce remains the Chiefs’ dominant red-zone threat, which compresses available targets in what will be a crowded receiver room. This increased competition contrasts sharply with the previous season when injuries allowed Worthy expanded opportunities.
McMillan, however, has a clearer runway to lead the Panthers’ receiving corps. His main competition includes the aging Adam Thielen, who is unlikely to maintain his previous target volume, and second-year receiver Xavier Legette, who has yet to meet expectations. The current team trajectory suggests McMillan will be the primary alpha receiver in Carolina’s offense from the outset.
Assessing Fantasy Value: What Managers Should Expect
Fantasy managers weighing Xavier Worthy’s promising second NFL season against Tetairoa McMillan’s rookie potential must consider the balance of Proven production and opportunity. Worthy’s demonstrated ability to step up in critical moments alongside one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks suggests reliability and upside. Yet, the increased competition for targets in Kansas City tempers his ceiling.
McMillan’s youth, explosive college production, and vacancy in Carolina’s receiver hierarchy offer a tantalizing opportunity for breakout success. His immediate path to a leading role, combined with improvements from Bryce Young, create a compelling case for high draft selection in 2025 fantasy leagues. The decision hinges on choosing between Worthy’s established floor and McMillan’s high breakout ceiling.