Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, fresh off winning his first NFL MVP award in 2023, saw a notable decline in his dropbacks throughout the 2024 season. This shift reflects the Bills’ move toward a more balanced offensive strategy rather than relying heavily on Allen’s passing abilities alone.

According to PFF NFL analyst Nathan Jahnke, Allen’s fantasy production dipped, mostly due to fewer dropbacks each game. Jahnke explained,

“Allen did have a notable decline in fantasy points per game compared to the last four seasons, even though he ranked second-best. The biggest reason was a significant decrease in dropbacks per game. The Bills have gone from a pass-heavy team to a more balanced team. They generally win many games, leading to more runs in the fourth quarter. They’ve made up for it in the past with a high pass rate, but not in 2024.”

This marked the first time since 2019 that Allen attempted fewer than 500 passes in a season, underscoring the offense’s shift.

Jahnke further noted that despite similar usage patterns and consistent time to throw, the arrival of Joe Brady as offensive coordinator midway through the previous season contributed to this strategic change. He added,

“Allen’s utilization has remained very similar over the years, including a remarkably consistent time to throw. Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator halfway into 2023, which has led to a more balanced offense. This has generally worked for Buffalo but not necessarily for the fantasy value of the Bills players.”

Evaluating Josh Allen’s Receiving Corps in Preparation for 2025

Josh Allen has repeatedly proven he can excel regardless of the talent level of the players catching his passes. However, the Bills’ receiving group entering 2025 presents some challenges, especially beyond the emergence of Khalil Shakir, who excels as an underneath slot receiver with impressive yards after catch (YAC).

The team saw significant turnover at the wide receiver position, with both Mack Hollins and Amari Cooper departing after combining for 96 targets last year. Buffalo addressed these gaps by adding Joshua Palmer early in free agency and drafting Elijah Moore. Jahnke observed,

“The biggest changes in the offense were at wide receiver, where the team moved on from both Mack Hollins and Amari Cooper. They combined for 96 targets last season. Buffalo added Joshua Palmer early in free agency and Elijah Moore after the draft. Palmer fits nicely as a replacement for Hollins at the Z receiver spot. Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel and Moore have played more out of the slot than out wide recently, so one of those players will likely start to see more work as an outside receiver. Considering that Cooper was playing through injury throughout his time in Buffalo, these should be slight upgrades for Allen.”

Besides Palmer and Moore, Curtis Samuel also figures into the mix, predominantly playing in the slot alongside Shakir. The Bills hope that one of these players will extend their roles as outside receivers to give Allen more seasoned targets and greater offensive versatility going forward.

Prospects for the Buffalo Offense and Josh Allen’s Role Moving Ahead

Looking ahead to 2025, the Bills appear committed to maintaining a more balanced offensive approach, departing from the heavy pass-focus that previously defined their gameplan. This evolution directly influences Josh Allen 2024 dropbacks and offense changes, suggesting fewer passing attempts but potentially more varied offensive plays.

The team also hopes Keon Coleman can develop into a reliable go-to wide receiver, offering Allen a dependable weapon to help elevate the offense. However, if the supporting players fall short, Allen’s proven ability to take control and guide the Bills into the postseason gives the team reason for optimism despite these transitions.