With 28 NBA teams no longer in playoff contention, attention has shifted to free agency, the upcoming draft, and potential trades to strengthen rosters. Although the draft is still over three weeks away and free agency follows soon after, rumors are already circulating heavily. However, many pivotal moves appear delayed due to one key factor: Giannis Antetokounmpo’s free agency decision impact is holding up the entire trade market, including any potential moves involving Kevin Durant.
Waiting on Milwaukee’s Star Player Before Market Activity Picks Up
Giannis Antetokounmpo remains the first major piece to fall this offseason, as he has yet to finalize discussions with Milwaukee’s management or ownership regarding his future. Until he makes his intentions clear, teams around the league are hesitant to make significant commitments. The uncertainty surrounding Antetokounmpo’s choice is forcing other teams to delay their plans, especially when considering trading for veterans like Durant.
The expectation persists that Durant will ultimately reach the trade market this offseason, but it might not happen until there is clarity on whether Giannis Antetokounmpo will be staying in Milwaukee or seeking a trade of his own.
—Marc Stein, NBA Insider
This logic is straightforward: franchises interested in Durant would prefer to secure Antetokounmpo, who remains in his prime at age 30, before engaging in talks for the 37-year-old veteran. Therefore, these teams are waiting on Antetokounmpo’s decision before shifting their focus to Durant or exploring alternate options.
The Complex Landscape of Potential Destinations for Antetokounmpo
While many expect Antetokounmpo to request a trade from Milwaukee, nothing is guaranteed. Should his primary goal be winning immediately, he might push for a move to teams like Houston or San Antonio, which could become contenders instantly with his arrival. Both squads possess assets in players and draft picks to make a competitive offer. However, such a move would place him in an extremely competitive Western Conference loaded with dominant teams and star players.
If he joined Houston, the Rockets would face powerhouse Oklahoma City, which finished with 68 wins and plans to return strong. They would also contend with Nikola Jokic’s improved Denver Nuggets, the Luka Doncic–led Dallas Mavericks, and a Los Angeles team featuring LeBron James. Other contenders include Golden State, with Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler returning for a full season, as well as strong squads like the Minnesota Timberwolves with Anthony Edwards, the Spurs with Victor Wembanyama, the Memphis Grizzlies led by Ja Morant, and more.
Antetokounmpo’s Eastern Conference Options and Their Challenges
Alternatively, Antetokounmpo could remain in the Eastern Conference, especially since Boston will be without Jayson Tatum for much of the upcoming season. Yet, any trade within the East—to teams such as Brooklyn, New York, Toronto, or even Cleveland—would likely demand that Milwaukee relinquish significant parts of its supporting cast. This would leave Antetokounmpo in a similar position to his current one: an MVP-level talent surrounded by an insufficient roster to secure championships.
Milwaukee’s ability to convince Antetokounmpo to stay under a two-year rebuilding plan will be a critical factor. Ultimately, the decision rests on what Antetokounmpo values most in his career, be it competing for titles or pursuing other goals.
Broader Implications for the NBA Trade Market
Until Giannis Antetokounmpo makes his decision, the NBA’s trade market is likely to remain inactive. Teams are waiting for the uncertainty to clear before committing to major deals involving marquee players like Durant. This bottleneck could reshape the offseason by pushing back moves and affecting team-building strategies across the league. Fans and franchises alike must remain patient as the landscape unfolds around Antetokounmpo’s next chapter.