Nearly a month ago, at the Rogers Centre during an interleague matchup between the Padres and Blue Jays, Luis Arraez displayed just how difficult he is to strike out. While the game’s spotlight shone on a 3-0 victory for Toronto, highlighted by Chris Bassitt’s quality start and home runs from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Santander, Arraez’s performance was what truly lingered in memory. In four plate appearances, he managed a double, only missed one pitch out of 23, and notably endured 12 two-strike pitches without striking out.
The Blue Jays fans’ audible frustration when Arraez doubled off a 1-2 sinker from Bassitt underscored his exceptional contact skills. Although Toronto swept the series, Arraez produced clutch moments such as a go-ahead single in the 10th inning off a left-handed pitcher. Despite his team being shut out in two of the three games, Arraez’s ability to consistently avoid strikeouts commanded attention.
The Surprising Moment: When Arraez Finally Struck Out
In an unexpected turn during the final game of that series, Toronto reliever Yariel Rodríguez overcame Arraez with a 98-mph fastball in the fifth inning, marking only his fourth strikeout of the season. Since then, Arraez has added just one more strikeout. Having witnessed his persistent contact ability previously, including a five-hit game against the Blue Jays in 2023 when he played for Miami, this rare strikeout stood out. It raised the question: given his extremely low strikeout rate, how can pitchers effectively silence one of baseball’s toughest hitters?
Analyzing Luis Arraez’s Strikeout Data Since 2021
To unravel this puzzle, all pitches Arraez has faced since 2021 were compiled using Statcast data, focusing on full 162-game seasons after the irregular 2020 season. Over that period, Arraez struck out only 159 times. For scale, 27 players surpassed this strikeout total in just the 2024 season. Eugenio Suárez alone has accumulated 828 strikeouts since 2021. At Arraez’s current rate, matching Suárez’s strikeout count would take him until 2043, when he would be 46 years old, emphasizing the rarity of his strikeouts.
Pitch Types Most Effective in Striking Out Arraez
When separated by pitcher handedness, distinct patterns emerge. Left-handed pitchers have struck Arraez out mainly using sliders, followed by fastballs, sinkers, changeups, and sweepers. Right-handed pitchers account for most of his strikeouts with fastballs, then sliders, cutters, sinkers, and curveballs. However, looking at raw totals without adjusting for pitch volume can be misleading. Using strikeout rates relative to the number of pitches thrown shows different leaders.
Among lefties, the changeup rates highest in effectiveness at generating strikeouts against Arraez, followed by sliders, sweepers, and cutters. For right-handers, breaking balls dominate as strikeout pitches, especially curveballs, then sliders, cutters, and splitters. Notably, Arraez handles cutters well in two-strike counts overall, making those pitches less likely to result in strikeouts when he is behind in the count.
Strategic Insights on Pitching to Arraez in Two-Strike Counts
Despite more strikeouts recorded on fastballs and sliders, detailed data indicates changeups from left-handed pitchers and curveballs from righties provide higher strikeout probabilities. Still, these pitches carry risk, as Arraez tends to anticipate secondary pitches in critical counts. Therefore, cutters represent a relatively safer option for pitchers aiming to induce strikeouts, given Arraez’s comparative struggles with those offerings in two-strike situations.
Location also plays a crucial role in pitching strategy. Left-handed pitchers generally avoid elevating fastballs inside, targeting outer and lower zones of the strike zone for strikeouts, whereas right-handed pitchers maintain a broader “safe peninsula” extending downward from the top of the strike zone on fastballs. Breaking balls thrown by right-handers to generate strikeouts often have to be precisely placed outside the zone to entice Arraez to chase without getting punished.
Overcoming the Challenge of Reaching Two Strikes
A major obstacle in striking out Arraez is reaching that critical two-strike count, as he puts the ball in play so frequently. Of the nearly 10,000 pitches analyzed since 2021, just over a quarter have come with two strikes. Fastballs, sinkers, sliders, changeups, and cutters have all succeeded in moving Arraez from one strike to two strikes, with fastballs being the most effective pitch type for advancing the count.
Recommended Pitching Approaches Against Arraez
For left-handed pitchers attempting to strike out Arraez, the data suggests establishing the count with fastballs or sliders, followed by finishing with an off-speed pitch such as a slider down and away or a changeup down and inside. Right-handed pitchers should consider setting the stage with fastballs or changeups, then attempting to strike him out with a backfoot curveball located inside the strike zone. If pitchers hesitate to rely on breaking balls when behind in the count, they can instead throw hard fastballs or cutters aimed at the corners: lefties targeting down and away, righties focusing on up and away, all while maintaining some flexibility around the edges of the zone.
Pitchers Who Have Found Success Against Arraez
Among the 126 different pitchers who have struck out Arraez since 2021, only 25 have done so more than once, and just five have recorded more than two strikeouts against him. Patrick Sandoval and Jon Gray have each struck him out three times, but the standout performers are Carlos Rodón, Corbin Burnes, and Cal Quantrill, each with four strikeouts. Remarkably, both Rodón and Burnes managed to strike him out twice in the same game multiple times—Rodón on July 6, 2021, and April 9, 2024, and Burnes on April 3, 2021, and July 27, 2022.
Cal Quantrill’s inclusion is intriguing given his modest strikeout rate and mid-90s fastball velocity, which contrasts with Burnes’ and Rodón’s more dominant arsenals. This suggests that the matchup dynamic between an extreme contact pitcher and an extreme contact hitter can create unusual outcomes, reflecting baseball’s unpredictable nature.
Current and Future Prospects for Striking Out Arraez
Corbin Burnes’s pitching arsenal aligns closely with the model built to exploit Arraez’s weaknesses—cutter followed by curveball, sinker, or slider—and their personal history confirms this theory. Unfortunately, Burnes is currently sidelined due to Tommy John surgery, temporarily sparing Arraez from his toughest adversary.
Among active pitchers, Diamondbacks reliever Jalen Beeks presents an interesting case as the lefty with the highest volume and rate of lefty-lefty changeups in 2025, a pitch identified as effective against Arraez. Although they have yet to face each other this season, their status as division rivals makes their eventual matchup one to watch closely.
Assessing the Complexity and Future of Pitching Strategies Against Arraez
The search for a definitive method to strike out Luis Arraez confirms how rare and difficult this feat is. Despite an abundance of data and analysis tools available to major league coaches and players, devising a reliable strikeout plan against Arraez remains a colossal challenge. For pitchers daring enough to take on this daunting task, this comprehensive analysis may offer a valuable framework.
All statistical data referenced is current through June 11, 2025.