The Indiana Pacers have demonstrated they are serious contenders in the 2025 NBA Finals despite entering as heavy underdogs, securing a crucial Game 3 win at home against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Pacers overcame an early fourth-quarter deficit to win 116-107, giving them a 2-1 series lead heading into Game 4, scheduled for Friday at 8:30 p.m. ET in Indiana. This series has seen fluctuating odds, with Oklahoma City favored by six points for the upcoming game and a total points line set at 226.5. Tyrese Haliburton, a standout player for the Pacers, has particularly thrived in front of his home crowd, logging 22 points and 11 assists in Game 3, exceeding his overall postseason averages of 18.6 points and 9.4 assists per game.

Haliburton’s Home Advantage Strengthens Player Prop Prospects

During the 2025 season, Tyrese Haliburton posted significantly better stats at home, averaging over three extra points and nearly 1.5 additional assists compared to his road games. These statistics underscore his value for NBA player props, especially in a matchup against an elite point guard like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Haliburton’s consistent high-level performances at Bankers Life Fieldhouse make the Over 27.5 points plus assists prop bet a compelling wager on game night. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates NBA games 10,000 times, supports this value, suggesting Haliburton will exceed the 27.5 total points plus assists mark in Game 4.

Data Analysis Reinforces Top Player Prop Picks for Game 4

Stephen Oh, a Data Scientist involved with the SportsLine model, reviewed the latest simulation results to identify strong player prop bets for Game 4. The model, known for generating significant returns over multiple NBA seasons, highlighted several key props, including:

• Tyrese Haliburton Over 27.5 points + assists (+100)
• Myles Turner Over 5.5 rebounds (+128)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 47.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)

Tyrese Haliburton’s Consistent Home Dominance Bolsters Over Bet

Haliburton’s recent performance in Game 3 provided a clear example of why the Over 27.5 points plus assists prop is favored; he notched 22 points and 11 assists to surpass the mark comfortably for his fourth consecutive home postseason game. A two-time All-Star in the past three seasons, Haliburton has elevated his game on Indiana’s home floor, posting averages of 24.3 points and 11.7 assists during the Eastern Conference Finals against the Knicks. Meanwhile, his road numbers—17.7 points and 9.3 assists per game—dip below his home stats, lowering his overall average and creating favorable betting odds for games in Indiana.

The projection model estimates Haliburton will tally 31 points plus assists in Game 4, based on his track record of exceeding this combined total in seven of his last 10 home games against teams with top-10 defenses. His recent average is an impressive 33.1 combined points and assists per game in those contests. Sportsbooks like bet365 are offering this prop at +100 odds, making it an attractive bet before odds shift upward on other platforms. New users can also benefit from promotional offers to maximize value on this wager.

Myles Turner Expected to Rebound Stronger After Limited Game 3 Performance

Despite a subdued rebounding effort in Game 3, with only two boards recorded, Myles Turner is poised for improvement in Game 4, especially after battling an illness. Turner, standing 6-foot-11, played 30 minutes despite limited health, demonstrating his commitment. In Game 1, Turner hauled in nine rebounds and typically averaged 6.5 per game during the regular season, compared to 4.9 rebounds in this series. Having a day off ahead of Game 4 should facilitate a full recovery and better rebounding output.

Turner’s involvement remained high in Game 3, registering 11 field-goal attempts, confirming his role in the offense stays consistent. The model indicates Turner has covered the rebounds market in four of his past five games as a home underdog against top-tier defenses, with an average of 9.6 rebounds in those games. Bet options such as FanDuel Sportsbook list the Over 5.5 rebounds prop at +128 odds, complemented by new user bonuses that provide additional betting value.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Offensive Output Trending Below Expectations

In contrast, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has yet to surpass the 47.5 points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) threshold during the Finals, including a 36 PRA total in Game 3. As the 2025 NBA MVP, Gilgeous-Alexander has demonstrated exceptional skill but has been less effective on the road, averaging 42.9 PRA away from home during the regular season despite increased minutes. His postseason runs have seen him go Under this total in six of eight road games, a trend that the projection experts expect to persist for Game 4.

Factors contributing to this decline include a reduced frequency of free-throw attempts and a drop in shooting efficiency. Stephen Oh noted,

The narrative that he gets too many friendly foul calls seems to be impacting his ability to get to the line,

and added,

In three of his last four games, he has just six, eight and four free-throw attempts. His FTAs and FT% are noticeably down in the playoffs, and his 3-point percentage is down from over 37% in the regular season to under 32% in the playoffs.

Sportsbooks like DraftKings are offering the Under 47.5 PRA prop at -120 odds, with some adjusting the line to 46.5 and modifying the odds accordingly. Promotional offers make these bets more enticing for new users.

Expanded NBA Finals Betting Insights for Thunder vs. Pacers Game 4

In addition to the player prop bets, the SportsLine Projection Model provides comprehensive spread, total, and money-line predictions for every NBA Finals game. This season’s analysis also includes insights from expert Jason La Canfora, who has delivered an impressive 113-82-1 record on NBA picks recently. La Canfora’s selections for Game 4 add valuable perspectives for bettors seeking data-informed plays.

The high stakes in Game 4 mean every edge counts, with the Pacers looking to extend their advantage on home court while the Thunder seek to even the series. The performances of Haliburton, Turner, and Gilgeous-Alexander will likely shape the outcome, and players’ prop markets provide important opportunities for fans and bettors alike.