Caitlin Clark entered the 2025 WNBA season as the favorite for the MVP award, but a recent quad injury sidelined her for at least two weeks, shifting the odds in favor of Napheesa Collier, who has emerged as the current frontrunner with MVP odds at -300. Clark is expected to return to action on Saturday in a game against the New York Liberty, raising questions about whether she can reclaim her position in the MVP race and if she remains a valuable betting choice despite the injury.
The focus on Caitlin Clark best betting value for WNBA MVP stems from her performance prior to injury and the potential for the Indiana Fever to improve their standing with her back on the court.
Statistical Benchmarks: What Does It Take to Win WNBA MVP?
The MVP award typically rewards players who excel both individually and contribute to team success. Using fantasy points per game (FP/G) as a measure of individual output and team win percentage as a measure of success, the last decade’s MVP winners have averaged at least 40.2 FP/G while playing on teams winning nearly 75% of their games. These combined benchmarks set a high bar for current candidates.
Current MVP Candidates and Their Standings
About twenty percent through the season, with teams having played nine or ten of their 44 games, several players fit the profile of potential MVP winners. Caitlin Clark ranks third in the league with 41.5 FP/G, although the Fever have only won 44.4% of their games so far. A’ja Wilson leads in individual production with 44.3 FP/G, and her Las Vegas Aces have a 50% win rate, while Breanna Stewart records 33.7 FP/G, and her New York Liberty remain undefeated after ten games.
Among these candidates, Napheesa Collier stands out as the only player exceeding the traditional MVP averages in both individual performance and team success. Collier’s Minnesota Lynx recently suffered their first loss, but her consistently high production has made her the odds-on favorite for MVP.
The Challenge for Multiple-Time MVP Winners
A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart both have multiple MVP awards to their names, but their current circumstances complicate their 2025 MVP chances. Wilson’s production surpasses typical MVP levels, yet her team’s win percentage has dropped compared to previous seasons. Stewart’s team has enjoyed a perfect record without her needing to produce MVP-caliber statistics individually. Their odds to win MVP remain longshots, requiring significant shifts in their team’s performance or their personal numbers to become genuine threats this season.
Caitlin Clark’s Position After Injury and Team Changes
Before her injury, Caitlin Clark demonstrated the kind of production expected from an MVP-caliber player. The Fever had an even 2-2 start, with losses to the undefeated New York Liberty and the Atlanta Dream, a team they later defeated in a rematch. The team strengthened its roster during the offseason by acquiring veteran free agents Natasha Howard and DeWanna Bonner, complementing Clark alongside key players like Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell.
With Clark’s return imminent, there is a strong possibility the Fever will improve their winning percentage, which could enhance Clark’s MVP prospects as individual performance and team success both rise.
Evaluating the MVP Race and Betting Value
Despite Collier’s current dominance in the odds, the season is far from over, with approximately 80% of games remaining. Clark is poised to return to form, recalling her rookie-year finish when she averaged 43.7 FP/G over her final 28 games, suggesting her current stats will likely improve. Among the teams with MVP-caliber players, the Fever have arguably the strongest chance to boost their success in the near future.
Clark’s popularity in the league is unparalleled, meaning any increase in her production and the Fever’s performance will likely produce swift and significant shifts in the MVP betting market. Her current odds at +320 are unlikely to last if Indiana enters a winning streak with Clark playing at her best.
Timing Is Critical for Betting on Clark
For bettors who believe in Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever’s potential to rebound, now offers the most advantageous moment to place wagers on her for the MVP title. Longshots like Wilson and Stewart face more uncertain paths, while Clark’s combination of past production and team improvements presents the clearest remaining value proposition in the MVP betting field.