Zack Wheeler, the Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher, has announced his intention to retire after completing his current contract at the end of the 2027 season. Although retirement is still about two and a half years away, this declaration has already sparked interest among baseball fans and analysts due to Wheeler’s ongoing strong performance in his career prime. Despite potential uncertainties, Wheeler appears confident in his decision to step away even if he maintains his high level of play.
It’ll be easy to walk away.
—Zack Wheeler
Performance and Career Overview
At 35 years old, Wheeler plans to conclude his career around age 37, which aligns with typical pitcher longevity. He has avoided entering a decline phase so far, as evidenced by his recent finishes as the runner-up in Cy Young Award voting in 2021 and 2023, and sixth place in 2022. These achievements demonstrate consistent excellence in his prime years.
Throughout his career, Wheeler has compiled a 109-72 win-loss record with a 3.31 earned run average (ERA), a 121 ERA+ (which compares his performance to the league average), a 1.14 WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched), and 1,726 strikeouts spanning 1,660â…” innings. In postseason appearances, Wheeler has performed even better, maintaining a 2.18 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and 77 strikeouts over 70â…“ innings in 12 games.
Evaluating Wheeler’s Hall of Fame Prospects
While Wheeler has impressive numbers, his current career statistics fall short of many established benchmarks for Hall of Fame induction, particularly due to the absence of Cy Young Award wins and the need for higher counting stats like innings pitched and strikeouts. Typically, a pitcher gains Hall of Fame consideration by exceeding 2,000 strikeouts or innings pitched and by earning multiple Cy Young honors—benchmarks Wheeler has yet to fully reach.
Comparing Wheeler to similar pitchers based on statistical profiles reveals peers like Aaron Nola, Corey Kluber, Stephen Strasburg, Michael Wacha, and Gary Nolan. None of these players have been inducted into the Hall of Fame, and no Hall of Famers are among the top 10 statistical comparables. In the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score system) rankings—a metric used to evaluate Hall of Fame worthiness—Wheeler stands at 184th, just ahead of Catfish Hunter and close to pitchers such as Al Leiter, David Price, Jake Peavy, and Corey Kluber, all of whom are recognized as talented but have not secured enshrinement.
Potential for Career Milestones and Impact
Despite these challenges, Wheeler is positioned to improve his Hall of Fame candidacy if he remains healthy and continues pitching through 2027 as planned. He is roughly 340 innings shy of reaching 2,000 innings pitched. Since the shortened 2020 season, Wheeler has averaged about 190 innings per year, making it likely he will surpass both that innings milestone and 2,000 strikeouts within the next few seasons. However, his win total may not impress traditionalists given modern pitching strategies that have reduced complete games and wins for starters.
Comparing Wheeler to Félix Hernández’s Hall of Fame Profile
To contextualize Wheeler’s trajectory, consider Félix Hernández, who last year debuted on the Hall of Fame ballot and received over 20% of the vote, signaling some support for eventual induction. Hernández retired with 169 wins, 2,729⅔ innings pitched, and 2,524 strikeouts, as well as one Cy Young Award. While Wheeler may not reach Hernández’s counting stats, he could compensate with potentially better rate statistics, including a 3.31 ERA compared to Hernández’s 3.42 ERA, a 121 ERA+ against Hernández’s 117, and a 1.14 WHIP versus 1.21.
Hernández’s career Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is 49.9, surpassing Wheeler’s current 38.0, but Wheeler is likely to close that gap by 2027, considering his recent WAR totals of 6.1 last season and 2.8 so far this year. If Wheeler matches or exceeds Hernández’s WAR and secures at least one Cy Young Award, his Hall of Fame case could strengthen substantially.
Challenges and Opportunities Ahead
Wheeler’s path to the Hall of Fame demands continued exceptional performance and recognition. Achieving milestones like a Cy Young Award victory and potentially a World Series MVP would greatly enhance his credentials and public perception. While the road is difficult, his combination of solid career achievements, future projections, and rate stats suggest he could emerge as a strong candidate by the time his career ends.
As 2027 approaches, fans and analysts will be watching closely to see if Wheeler can maintain his form and secure the accolades needed for Hall of Fame consideration, making his retirement timeline a compelling storyline in the baseball community.