As the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder enter the pivotal Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals with the series tied 2-2, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stands out as the clear favorite for the 2025 NBA Finals MVP. Despite the tight competition, the odds heavily favor the Thunder, largely driven by Gilgeous-Alexander’s dominant performances and Oklahoma City’s regained home-court advantage, while Tyrese Haliburton emerges as an unexpected contender offering significant value to bettors.
The Imbalance in Finals and MVP Betting Markets Amid Tied Series
Although the championship series is evenly matched at two games each, betting lines tell a different story. Oklahoma City, now with home-court advantage, is favored at -500 to capture two of the next three games, while Indiana remains a +375 underdog halfway through the finals. This discrepancy not only reflects team expectations but also profoundly impacts the Finals MVP betting markets.
Historical context shapes these odds and predictions. Only once in NBA Finals history has a player from the losing team secured the MVP honor: Jerry West in 1969, whose outstanding individual performance could not secure a Lakers victory. Such occurrences are extraordinarily rare, implying that the Finals MVP will nearly always come from the championship-winning squad.
Additionally, there is a strong historical trend linking the Finals MVP award with a player being the leading scorer on the winning team throughout the series. Out of all Finals MVP awards, only a dozen have gone to players who were not their team’s top scorer series-wide, underscoring the significance of offensive dominance in MVP considerations.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Commanding Position in the MVP Race
Holding odds of -490 according to Caesars Sportsbook, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has cemented himself as the frontrunner to secure the Finals MVP. His Game 4 performance was extraordinary, key to Oklahoma City’s comeback win. Gilgeous-Alexander set multiple records late in that game, including scoring 15 points in the final five minutes—the highest recorded for a Finals game—and delivering 14 clutch points overall, the most in Finals history.
Moreover, Gilgeous-Alexander became just the second player in two decades to score over 15 points in the last five minutes of a playoff game with flawless shooting splits—100 percent on field goals, three-pointers, and free throws. Across the four games of the series, he has averaged more than 32 points, five rebounds, and three assists per contest, while also contributing defensively with 10 steals although his individual defense has drawn some criticism.
Although teammates Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso have made significant contributions, especially in Game 4, it appears inevitable that if the Thunder win the title, Gilgeous-Alexander will be the MVP recipient. His leadership and scoring dominance place him firmly in control of the MVP narrative.
Tyrese Haliburton Emerges as a High-Value Under-the-Radar Candidate
Despite Gilgeous-Alexander’s favoritism, Tyrese Haliburton, with current odds at +850, presents an intriguing alternative for those seeking value in the MVP betting market. Though Pascal Siakam remains Indiana’s leading scorer in the series, Haliburton’s all-around impact and intangible influence on the Pacers’ success make him a compelling candidate.
Haliburton’s averages—17.8 points and 7.5 assists per game—may not immediately captivate casual viewers, but his influence extends beyond the box score. Over the 109 minutes Haliburton has played this series, Indiana has outscored Oklahoma City by eight points, illustrating his positive effect on the team‘s overall performance. Even in games where his individual numbers were modest, the Pacers have performed well during his minutes on the floor.
Remarkably, Haliburton is among just two players in NBA Finals history to average at least seven assists, seven rebounds, and three made three-pointers over the first three Finals games. The other player with this stat line was the renowned Stephen Curry in 2017, underscoring Haliburton’s elite level of play.
Haliburton also created the series’ defining highlight with his game-winning shot in Game 1. With the series balanced and the ultimate winner still undetermined, this clutch moment gives Haliburton an edge in the MVP conversation within Indiana’s camp. His importance to Indiana is clear, as evidenced by the team’s 8-1 record in these playoffs when he scores 20 or more points, suggesting that replicating such performances will be crucial to the Pacers’ chances of winning the championship.
Pascal Siakam’s Strong Scoring Role and Close Contest for MVP Consideration
Pascal Siakam comes in as Indiana’s leading scorer in the series, averaging 18.8 points per game, and holds odds of +650. Historically, the Finals MVP tends to be the highest scorer on the winning team, which places Siakam in a strong position if Indiana takes the title.
Siakam’s Game 4 statistics—20 points, eight rebounds, five steals, and five assists—highlight a versatile and impactful effort. Apart from a difficult shooting night in Game 2, he has been Indiana’s primary one-on-one scoring threat. His ability to penetrate defenses and earn free throws, averaging over seven attempts per game, showcases his offensive skillset.
Indiana has outperformed opponents by 15 points during Siakam’s playing time in the last two games, signaling his increasing influence. While his overall plus-minus for the series stands at minus-10, this trend suggests an upward trajectory in his effectiveness. Defensively, Siakam has been instrumental in elevating Indiana’s coverage during critical moments of the finals.
Though some consider Haliburton’s clutch moments as an incentive to prefer him, the contest between Siakam and Haliburton remains close. Both players, though ranked below Gilgeous-Alexander, represent compelling value bets when compared to the Thunder star. Bettors favoring Siakam should recognize his historic likelihood of winning MVP if Indiana triumphs, while those backing Haliburton bet on the player expected to spearhead Indiana’s success.
Updated 2025 NBA Finals MVP Odds as Series Intensifies
According to Caesars Sportsbook odds as of June 16, the leading contenders for the 2025 NBA Finals MVP are as follows:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -490
- Pascal Siakam: +650
- Tyrese Haliburton: +800
- Jalen Williams: +3500
With the finals series finely balanced, these odds highlight the dominant status of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander while recognizing Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton as substantial challengers. Jalen Williams remains a long shot but is nonetheless listed among potential impact players.
As the decisive games approach, the MVP race remains tightly intertwined with the series outcome. History’s strong correlation between the winning team’s leading scorer and the awards recipient suggests Gilgeous-Alexander holds a significant advantage if Oklahoma City clinches the title. Meanwhile, Haliburton and Siakam provide intriguing options for those anticipating an Indiana upset, emphasizing the importance of consistent high-level performances from both players in the concluding games.