Jalen Williams, the 24-year-old forward for the Oklahoma City Thunder, delivered a standout performance in Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals by scoring 40 points, nearly a career high, helping the Thunder secure a 120-109 victory over the Indiana Pacers. As the Thunder prepare for Game 6 on Thursday night at Indiana’s Gainbridge Fieldhouse, the jalen williams under 23.5 points prop is attracting significant attention because experts predict his recent scoring surge may not be sustainable.
Williams has become a vital contributor for Oklahoma City, scoring at least 25 points in his last three games and positioning the Thunder just one win away from their first championship since moving from Seattle in 1979. Despite this hot streak, statistical models and analysts are cautious, viewing his elevated scoring as a temporary spike rather than a new norm.
Increased Pressure on Pacers’ Bench with Haliburton’s Injury Concern
T.J. McConnell, the Pacers’ guard coming off the bench, emerged as a key player in Game 5 with 18 points, four rebounds, four assists, and two steals. With Tyrese Haliburton suffering from a right calf strain, McConnell’s role might expand in Game 6. Haliburton underwent an MRI on Tuesday after sustaining the injury during Game 5, where he still managed to play 34 minutes despite limited production.
Haliburton remains determined to play, stating clearly,
If I can walk, then I want to play,
but the severity of his injury will influence the Pacers’ strategy and the effectiveness of their offense. McConnell’s over/under for points is set at 10.5 points, reflecting expectations that he could get more playing time or responsibility if Haliburton’s mobility remains limited.
Projection Model Highlights Top NBA Player Props for Game 6
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, has become a trusted tool for predicting player and team performance. Stephen Oh, a data scientist involved with the model, has analyzed Game 6’s player props and identified those with the strongest value. According to Oh, the model sees value in several specific prop bets including Williams’ scoring total, McConnell’s assists, and Lu Dort’s all-around contributions.
The odds on Williams to score under 23.5 points are -120, currently considered one of the best bets for the evening. Fans can take advantage of bonuses and promo codes offered on platforms such as DraftKings and BetMGM to place these bets.
T.J. McConnell’s Assist Potential Increases Amid Haliburton’s Uncertainty
McConnell is averaging 4.2 assists per game in the Finals series while playing roughly 18 minutes each contest. He has surpassed 4.5 assists in two out of five games, while two games he logged four assists, just under the threshold. Given Haliburton’s calf strain, McConnell’s opportunity to control the offense could increase substantially.
Though Haliburton declared his willingness to play if he can walk, his previous limited scoring and effectiveness raise doubts about his ability to lead the Pacers. The coaching staff might choose to rely more on McConnell to distribute the ball effectively. FanDuel Sportsbook currently offers odds of -106 on McConnell going over 4.5 assists, which some sportsbooks have set at even longer odds.
Jalen Williams’ Scoring Projection Reflects Season Averages Over Recent Surge
Williams is rapidly rising in prominence as a dependable scorer alongside star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with three consecutive games of 25 or more points. However, over the longer run, particularly in seven prior playoff games, he has scored under 23.5 points five times, and his regular-season average of 21.6 points per game indicates his recent burst might not continue.
The projection model estimates Williams will score approximately 20.6 points in Game 6, suggesting the recent highs should be regarded as an exception rather than the new baseline. Furthermore, unlike the urgency felt during his 40-point outburst in Game 5, the Thunder can afford a more measured approach as they lead the series. If Oklahoma City falls behind early, they might conserve energy focusing on Game 7 instead of pushing their stars in Game 6.
Williams under 23.5 points is available at -120 odds on BetMGM, and new users have access to bonuses that provide up to $1,500 back on their first bet if it loses.
Lu Dort’s Consistent Contributions Make Over 12.5 PRA a Strong Bet
Lu Dort has consistently helped power the Thunder throughout the Finals. In Game 5, Dort tallied nine points, eight rebounds, and three assists, surpassing 12.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) easily. He has exceeded this total in three of the first five Finals games and in two of the last three.
The 26-year-old guard plays significant minutes, appearing for at least 30 minutes in four of five games this series. Dort has finished over 12.5 PRA in 32 of 40 contests where he logged at least 30 minutes, and his recent performances against the Pacers show an average PRA of 18.4, with seven out of nine games going over this mark.
Stephen Oh commented on Dort’s impact:
The Thunder need his defense vs. the Pacers, which leads to his solid rebounding and assist numbers in these matchups,
and also noted,
He is also shooting his threes with confidence. In the past, he would be gun-shy if he missed his first few threes, but after he basically won a game vs. Denver with clutch threes, he shoots that moon ball with confidence all game long, resulting in 14 for 24 shooting in the Finals.
Dort’s shooting and all-around energy make the over 12.5 PRA prop at -125 odds on FanDuel a compelling wager, where users can maximize value with current promo codes.
Looking Ahead: Strategic Implications for Game 6 and Beyond
With the Thunder holding a 3-2 series lead, Game 6 is pivotal. Oklahoma City aims to clinch the franchise’s first NBA title in over four decades, while the Pacers fight to extend the series. Injuries and player management will likely influence how both teams approach this game.
Williams’ scoring output remains a focal point, as does the availability and effectiveness of Haliburton for the Pacers. If Haliburton’s calf injury limits his contribution, McConnell’s role is expected to rise, which may alter the Pacers’ offensive strategies. Meanwhile, Dort’s versatile impact on both ends of the floor will be crucial.
Sports bettors and fans alike will be closely watching how these factors play out, utilizing models and expert analysis to make informed wagers and predictions as the Finals reach their climax.