Andy Pages has made an impressive leap in his development during the 2025 season with the Los Angeles Dodgers. After a modest rookie campaign at age 23 where he hit .248 with a .305 on-base percentage and a .407 slugging mark, he has dramatically improved. Though he began this year slowly, the outfielder has since turned his performance around, demonstrating why the focus on his breakout season is well-founded.

Initially, in his first 73 plate appearances, Pages struggled, posting a low .544 OPS accompanied by a high 30% strikeout rate and only 29% of balls hit with authority. However, starting April 21, he flipped the script by slashing an impressive .335/.352/.590, launching 13 home runs and stealing six bases. This rare combination of power and speed places him among elite company alongside Shohei Ohtani, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Corbin Carroll for that stretch.

Defensive Improvements Cement Pages’ Everyday Role

One reason Pages has earned consistent playing time is his notable improvement on defense. In his rookie season, defensive metrics were a liability; he recorded -1 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) overall and a concerning -8 DRS in centerfield, ranking fifth worst among centerfielders. This year, however, Pages is tied for fourth among all MLB players in Defensive Runs Saved with a total of 10, regardless of position. His centerfield DRS alone rose to 2, reflecting a remarkable defensive turnaround.

The combination of his offensive surge and defensive progress has boosted his overall value. With a 2.9 fWAR, he is tied for 13th among all position players, sharing the spot with stars like Francisco Lindor and James Wood. These improvements highlight why Pages is rapidly becoming one of the Dodgers’ top contributors.

Balancing Power with Contact Efficiency

Elite hitters often blend formidable power with excellent contact skills, and Andy Pages is beginning to fit that mold. Last season’s 24.4% strikeout rate was reasonable, but this year he has trimmed that figure down to an impressive 17.9%, even as he takes a more aggressive approach at the plate. Despite a slight dip in bat speed from 73.1 mph to 72.9 mph, he has lengthened his swing, increasing the swing length from 7.7 to 7.9 feet, a somewhat unusual move since hitters often shorten their swing to enhance contact.

While his barrel and hard-hit rates have declined a bit, they remain strong with an 8.8% barrel rate and a 38.4% hard-hit rate. Notably, he still possesses plus bat speed, having registered a 112 mph maximum exit velocity last season. His production has closely tracked his ability to make consistent contact, a critical factor in his current success.

Pages’ zone contact rate has climbed nearly five percentage points to a notable 89.7%, putting him among hitters who generally maintain strikeout rates in the teens. His contact-over-expected metric ranks in the 82nd percentile, aligning him with established hitters like Josh Naylor, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Xander Bogaerts, known for their ability to adjust and connect effectively.

His strong bat speed works well with a swing path that encourages line drives along with hard-driven balls, creating the foundation of an effective hitter. The ability to elevate the ball with power suggests further growth potential moving forward.

Andy Pages is going to be a great hitter. He has one of the best swing paths in MLB. Proj systems have him at ~115 for wRC+. We’ll take the over on that
He’s a lot like F. Freeman without the plate disc / walks https://t.co/2qBaifTDpg pic.twitter.com/7Jr8yqHIE3
— SwingGraphs (@SwingGraphs) May 4, 2024

Adjusting to Pitch Types and Expanding His Offensive Arsenal

Pages’ approach to different pitch types has evolved significantly this year. Initially, he struggled against breaking pitches, hitting only .190 while whiffing on nearly a third of those swings. However, this season he has demonstrated greater adaptability, making solid contact and generating damage against fastballs, breaking balls, and offspeed pitches alike, forcing pitchers to rethink their strategy against him.

His power against sliders, in particular, has surged. Pages has hammered four home runs off sliders in 2025, a substantial jump from his rookie year slugging average of .246 against that pitch type, now improved to .533. This ability to punish tricky pitches strengthens his growing reputation as a dangerous hitter.

Areas to Develop: Plate Discipline and Walk Rate

Though the overall outlook for Pages is promising, there remain aspects of his game ripe for refinement, especially plate discipline. During his minor league tenure, Pages maintained strong walk rates consistently, posting double-digit walk percentages at almost every level. Yet in the majors, his walk rate has been markedly lower, at just 5.8% over 700 career plate appearances.

During his recent hot streak starting April 21, while his strikeout rate dropped to 13.3%, his walk rate dipped to a low 2.9%. He has also shown increased aggressiveness, indicated by a career-high chase rate of 35.4%, which has hurt him in swing decision metrics. For example, his Decision Value has declined from 106 last year to 97 this year, while his SEAGER percentile dropped from 66th to 24th. This suggests room for growth as he learns to balance aggression with patience at the plate.

Projection systems expect Pages’ walk rate to rise closer to his minor league levels as he gains experience and comfort in the majors. His current swing plane and ability to spray line drives suggest that his batting average should remain strong, supported by a fly ball rate of 41.2%. This indicates a hitter who knows how to hit hard and produce quality at-bats while garnering consistent results.

Power Potential and Basestealing Threat

Andy Pages’ barrel distribution and batted ball tendencies hint at a higher power ceiling going forward. Of his 17 barrels this season, 11 have been hit straightaway, which tend to yield better slugging outcomes than pulled fly balls. The difference is clear, with a slugging mark of 3.026 for pulled barrels versus 1.409 when hit straightaway. If Pages can increase his pull rate on fly balls and barrels, it may push him toward a 30-home-run milestone.

Additionally, Pages’ speed is a key asset; he ranks in the 81st percentile for sprint speed, making him a constant threat to steal double-digit bases each season.

Impressive work from Andy Pages‘ lower half on this swing. He’s been able to meet a lot of balls out in front and generate power that way – even on pitches low in the zone. pic.twitter.com/CbSL6ashtS
— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) June 16, 2025

Future Outlook and Comparisons to Established Players

Looking ahead, projections remain bullish on Pages’ continuing success. THE BAT X system forecasts a .268/.327/.474 slash line with 29 home runs and 10 stolen bases for the remainder of the season, numbers that represent a solid all-around player both for fantasy leagues and real-world impact. His defensive strides reflect a young player capable of addressing weaknesses and continuing to grow on the field.

Players with comparable offensive profiles since 2010 include notable names such as Nelson Cruz, George Springer, Justin Upton, Rickie Weeks Jr., and Avisail Garcia—each of whom combined a batting average in the .260 to .270 range with above-average power and speed. Pages ranks among only 18 hitters projected to hit at least 14 home runs, steal four bases, and maintain a .268 batting average over the rest of the season, underscoring the potential in his breakout campaign.