Bobby Witt Jr. entered the 2025 season with high expectations following an outstanding 2024 campaign that positioned him among baseball’s elite. Despite sustaining solid overall numbers, his performance for the Kansas City Royals this year has not matched the MVP-caliber impact many anticipated based on his breakout season. The shifts in his offensive output and adjustments by opposing pitchers have contributed to a noticeable dip in his production.
Witt Jr.’s Offensive Struggles Amid Rising Expectations
The young phenom’s 2025 batting average currently sits at .282, complemented by 21 stolen bases, 8 home runs, and 38 RBIs so far. While these figures reflect a strong season on the surface, they fall short of the extraordinary standards he set last year, when he finished second in MVP voting behind Aaron Judge. This regression has raised questions about whether Witt Jr. can sustain the elite level of play that earned him his “Bobby Baseball” reputation.
A significant cause of his offensive challenges has been a prolonged slump at the plate. Over his last 30 games, Witt Jr.’s average dropped to .229, with only three homers at Kauffman Stadium this year. Pitchers, having adjusted to his approach after his breakout, are no longer caught off guard, making his path to consistent production more difficult. Rather than facing a heavy workload of breaking balls, which he punished convincingly in 2024, hitters are challenging him with a higher proportion of fastballs, prompting a shift in his overall effectiveness.
Analyzing Pitching Adjustments and Their Impact on Witt Jr.’s Game
Last season, Witt Jr. faced breaking balls 35.9% of the time, a pitch type he attacked with a .326 average and 11 home runs. His ability to keep his bat in the zone longer on these pitches contributed to a high slugging percentage (.555 actual SLG) and solid expected slugging (.484 xSLG). However, in 2025, pitchers have reduced the frequency of breaking balls to 30.4%, likely to limit his damage against those offerings.
This adjustment coincides with a drop in his performance on breaking pitches, where his batting average has fallen to .280 and strikeouts have increased relative to last year. Meanwhile, his ability to pull the ball, often linked to power numbers like home runs, has declined slightly, with a 3.2% decrease in Pull-Air%. This reduced pull rate may be behind the noticeable decline in his home run totals, especially at home park games.
Additionally, Witt Jr.’s barrel percentage—the measure of well-struck balls—has decreased from 14.3% to 11.7%, which aligns with his reduced slugging against fastballs. Though he previously excelled against fastballs, hitting .340 in 2024, his average against this pitch type has dropped to .284 this season. While these remain respectable numbers, they fall short of the explosive output expected from a player of his caliber.
Signs of Recovery and the Royals’ Postseason Aspirations
Despite his offensive hiccups, there are encouraging signs that Witt Jr. may regain his top form. His two-hit performance against Texas on Tuesday hinted at a potential breakout, highlighting his persistent ability to make hard contact and maintain high bat speed. Historically, Witt Jr. tends to reach his peak performance in the mid-summer months. In 2024, he piled up 17 home runs in July and August after a quieter first half, suggesting a similar trend could be underway this season.
His expected batting average (xBA) in 2025 is trending closer to his solid 2023 numbers, when he hit .276 with 30 home runs and posted an OPS of .814. While these metrics are good for nearly all MLB players, they feel modest compared to the eye-popping season he delivered last year. The current season may represent more of a leveling off than a true decline, a natural adjustment as he emerges from an extraordinary breakout campaign.
The Role of Witt Jr.’s Performance in Kansas City’s Team Outlook
The Royals have struggled offensively, particularly in producing clutch, multi-run homers that could offer their pitching staff valuable breathing room. Witt Jr., often seen as the linchpin of the offense, has been part of this underperformance. His downturn has made it more difficult for the team to gain momentum, with the Royals relying on consistent base hits instead of impactful power plays.
Moreover, the offensive challenges faced by Witt Jr.’s teammates have likely compounded his struggles, as a line-up’s overall effectiveness influences individual opportunities and pressure. Despite this, expectations remain high because Bobby Witt Jr. has repeatedly demonstrated he can rise to MVP-level performance, often carrying a significant load for the Royals.
The recent uptick in performance, including his strong showing in crucial at-bats with runners in scoring position, suggests potential for a turnaround. If Witt Jr. can recapture his dynamic power hitting and timing, it could provide a critical boost to Kansas City’s hopes for the postseason.
Looking Ahead: What the Future Holds for Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals
While the 2025 season has not yet matched the stellar heights of his breakout year, Bobby Witt Jr. remains a player capable of shifting the course for the Royals. His early successes and bursts of performance indicate he has the tools to rebound, particularly with the support of strategic adjustments and healthier lineup contributions.
For Kansas City, the challenge lies in resurrecting “Bobby Baseball” in his full MVP mode, which has historically been the driving force behind their winning chances. The coming months will reveal whether Witt Jr. can overcome this midseason slump and restore his standing as one of baseball’s premier talents, ultimately impacting the Royals’ pursuit of playoff success.