The 2026 NHL free agency period is expected to bring significant roster changes, and much attention focuses on where Edmonton Oilers star center Connor McDavid might land if he reaches the open market. Although Edmonton remains the favorite to retain McDavid, the Toronto Maple Leafs stand out as the most likely challengers to acquire the superstar.
BetCanada’s odds currently favor McDavid re-signing with the Oilers before July 1, 2026, with a 67.7% implied probability. The earliest date McDavid can agree to an extension is July 1, 2025, and his current contract guarantees earnings of $12.5 million in its final season. Despite Edmonton’s edge, Toronto’s strong presence as a potential destination is notable.
BetCanada Odds Highlight Toronto’s Cap Space and Status as Top Outside Contender
BetCanada assigns the Toronto Maple Leafs +1250 odds to sign McDavid, translating to roughly a 7.4% chance. Toronto’s considerable salary cap flexibility plays a significant role, as the team could have approximately $43.7 million in cap space entering the 2026 offseason. This financial room positions the Maple Leafs as the leading suitor outside of Edmonton.
Christopher Boan from BetCanada remarked on McDavid’s likelihood of staying in Canada, citing his long history of outstanding performance in Edmonton. Boan wrote,
“Given McDavid’s success in Edmonton, with five consecutive seasons notching 70-plus assists and eight 100-point seasons in the last nine years, it’s worth remembering that McDavid’s likely going to stay north of the border for years to come.”
He continued,
“That’s why we give the Oilers -210 odds of keeping him, as the superstar enters the final year of his deal that’s set to earn $12.5 million.”
Other Potential Teams Listed as Long-Shot Destinations for McDavid
Aside from Edmonton and Toronto, several other teams appear on the list of possible landing spots, albeit with longer odds. The New York Rangers are next closest with +2250 odds. Both the Los Angeles Kings and Vegas Golden Knights hold odds at +2750, while the Chicago Blackhawks and Montreal Canadiens are tied at +3500. These teams vary in competitive status, with Chicago still in rebuilding mode.
Significance and Outlook for Connor McDavid’s Free Agency in 2026
The upcoming free agency period could dramatically reshape the NHL landscape depending on Connor McDavid’s decision. His potential move to Toronto, his hometown, would bring considerable excitement and shift competitive dynamics in the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, Edmonton’s task remains to convince their generational talent to stay and continue building around him.
With the earliest opportunity to sign an extension arriving in July 2025, both Edmonton and interested teams like Toronto will undoubtedly prepare well in advance, making this one of the most anticipated contract negotiations in NHL history.