Kris Bubic, the Kansas City Royals’ starting pitcher, is making waves with a remarkable 2025 campaign, establishing himself as a major contender in the MLB pitching landscape. His breakout performance this season has not only revitalized his career but also positioned him strongly in the Cy Young Award conversation.
Overcoming Early Career Challenges
Bubic’s MLB journey began in 2020, but his initial seasons revealed struggles adjusting to the major league level. His earned run average (ERA) hovered around the mid-4.00s during his first two years, indicating that while he could compete, he had yet to become dominant. The 2022 season was particularly difficult, with Bubic posting an ERA above 5.50, signaling a sharp decline in effectiveness. Various metrics underscored this downturn, showing poor performance across key statistics such as Chase Percentage, Pitching Run Value, and Expected ERA, placing him in the bottom 10% of the league that year.
His control issues became apparent as well, with walks driving his WHIP close to 1.70 and opponents registering over 10 hits per nine innings. Notably, Bubic’s primary pitch, his four-seam fastball, was considered the worst in MLB by Run Value metrics in 2022—a major factor in his struggles since this pitch was predominant in his arsenal. The season was a low point, risking his place in the Royals’ rotation.
In 2023, Bubic’s season was interrupted early by Tommy John surgery after just three starts, in which he displayed promising potential with a 3.94 ERA and efficient strikeout-to-walk ratios. Though requiring significant recovery time, this surgery marked a turning point, allowing Bubic to rebuild and come back stronger.
Emergence as a Dominant Reliever
Bubic returned in July 2024, but this time in the Royals’ bullpen—a new role that seemed to unlock his potential. Over 27 appearances and 30.1 innings pitched, he posted an impressive 2.67 ERA, striking out 39 batters while issuing only five walks. This shift also correlated with improved velocity, as his fastball increased from an average of 91.7 MPH in 2023 to 93 MPH in 2024, complementing a pitching style better suited for relief work.
A key addition to his repertoire was a sweeping breaking ball that became his secondary pitch behind the fastball. Among similar pitches thrown at least 100 times in 2024, Bubic’s sweeper ranked ninth in vertical break and limited hitters to a 79.1 MPH average exit velocity. His postseason performances were notable as well, with 4.2 innings over four relief appearances in the Royals’ playoff run that included a 2-inning scoreless outing in their ALDS victory over the New York Yankees. This successful relief stint set the stage for his elevated role and impact in 2025.
Bubic’s Rise to Rotation Ace and Cy Young Contender
Since returning to the starting rotation in 2025, Kris Bubic has emerged as one of the premier pitchers in the American League. Although the Royals are slightly below .500 as of mid-June, Bubic’s dominance stands in stark contrast to the team’s overall struggles. Through 13 starts, he has amassed a 5-4 record alongside a stellar 1.92 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP across nearly 80 innings.
Initially a dark horse candidate for the Cy Young Award, Bubic now commands serious attention with league-leading metrics. He ranks sixth in bWAR (3.0) and eighth in fWAR (2.5), underscoring his value beyond traditional statistics. His home run rate of 0.34 HR/9 is second only to José Soriano of the Los Angeles Angels, highlighting his ability to limit damage.
His pitch mix is exceptionally effective, with four of his five main offerings posting positive Run Values: four-seam fastball (4 RV), sweeper (6 RV), changeup (5 RV), and slider (3 RV). Each of these pitches also carries whiff rates exceeding 26% this season, showcasing his capacity to generate swings and misses consistently. Bubic’s stamina and consistency are evident in his starts, having thrown seven complete seven-inning performances and recorded nine quality starts (minimum six innings and no more than three earned runs allowed).
May was a particularly impressive month for Bubic, as he posted a 0.56 ERA—the second-best among qualified pitchers behind Andrew Abbott of the Cincinnati Reds—and logged 25.1 innings with 33 strikeouts, surpassing the total of his combined walks and hits allowed. Equally significant was his ability to strand 97.7% of baserunners, an elite mark that earned him Just Baseball’s Gold Medal as Pitcher of the Month. This recognition affirms his dominance and consistency throughout the month.
Intense AL Cy Young Competition and Bubic’s Growing Impact
Despite Bubic’s remarkable showing, the AL Cy Young race remains highly competitive, with strong contenders such as Hunter Brown of the Houston Astros, Tarik Skubal of Detroit, and Max Fried of the New York Yankees also presenting compelling cases. Tarik Skubal’s performance, in particular, is a benchmark—Bubic would be the frontrunner if not for Skubal’s even more dominant campaign.
Kris Bubic has stepped up as the Royals’ undisputed ace amid uneven pitching performances from teammates like Cole Ragans, who was a top-five Cy Young finisher last season. Bubic’s transformation from a struggling starter to a dominant reliever and now an elite rotation pitcher exemplifies his resilience and work ethic.
Looking ahead, Bubic’s continued success is poised to solidify his reputation and potentially earn him the honor of starting the 2025 All-Star Game for the American League. His commitment to refining his pitch arsenal and ability to overpower major league hitters signal that he is only beginning to tap into his full potential this season.
“He threw up a 2.67 ERA and struck out a ridiculous 39 batters to just five walks over these 30.1 innings, skyrocketing his K/9 rate that season to 11.6, much higher than he had ever posted before.” —Baseball Analyst
“His sweeper is the third-most valuable sweeper in all of baseball this season behind JP Sears of the Athletics and Clarke Schmidt of the New York Yankees.” —MLB Commentator
“As the season progresses, Bubic’s prowess is going to become more and more certain as he continues to mow down big-league bats at an alarming rate.” —Sports Journalist