The Dallas Mavericks hold the top selection in the 2025 NBA draft, widely expected to be used on Duke’s standout forward, Cooper Flagg. While Flagg is considered a top prospect, some expert rankings place him slightly behind established names like Luka Doncic and Zion Williamson based on statistical projections.
ESPN draft analyst Kevin Pelton uses a metric called Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) to estimate the impact a player is likely to have during their first five NBA seasons compared to a replacement-level player. Flagg’s projected WARP stands at 5.3, putting him third behind Williamson’s 5.5 and Doncic’s 5.4, according to Pelton’s database, which dates back to 2003.
Flagg, a native of Newport, Maine, is viewed as a rare talent due to his size, length, versatility, and high basketball IQ. His single season at Duke highlighted his ability to contribute on both ends of the court, averaging 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.2 assists while shooting 60.4 percent true shooting percentage.
Expert Projections Place Flagg Behind Doncic and Williamson in Career Impact
Though Flagg is expected to be a key figure in the upcoming draft, projections like Pelton’s WARP remind fans and analysts that predicting NBA success remains an inexact science. Flagg’s 5.3 WARP ranks him highly across all draft prospects since 2003, yet it is slightly below that of Luka Doncic and Zion Williamson, two widely recognized NBA stars.
These projections weigh a player’s expected wins contributed to their team in comparison to an average replacement, offering perspective on how a player might develop. The model provides a benchmark but cannot guarantee the trajectory of a burgeoning career.
Flagg’s Skill Set and One Season at Duke Make Him an Intriguing Prospect
Flagg’s unique combination of physical attributes and on-court intelligence has made him a tantalizing prospect for the Mavericks. His performance during his lone collegiate season exposed his all-around game, marked by scoring efficiency, rebounding, and playmaking.
His versatility on both offense and defense, along with a cerebral approach to basketball, enhances his appeal to NBA teams seeking a high-impact player who can contribute immediately and develop over time.
NBA Draft Outlook and What Lies Ahead for Flagg and the Mavericks
With the Mavericks poised to select Cooper Flagg first overall, his development will be closely watched as fans and analysts gauge whether he meets or surpasses the expectations tied to his potential. Comparisons to established stars such as Luka Doncic and Zion Williamson add momentum to the draft discourse but also underscore the challenges that lie ahead.
As the 2025 NBA draft approaches, Flagg’s progression will be a key storyline, with his rookie season likely setting the tone for how those expert projections translate on the court.