As UFC 317 approaches this Saturday, Charles Oliveira is preparing for another opportunity to claim the lightweight championship. MMA analyst Luke Thomas recently discussed Oliveira’s chances and potential tactics against Ilia Topuria during a Submission Radio podcast, emphasizing a key strategy that could turn the tide in Oliveira’s favor.
Despite many favoring Topuria to win and seize the vacant lightweight title, Thomas suggested that Oliveira’s best path to victory involves a grappling and wrestling-centric game plan. This approach focuses on controlling Topuria by securing the back and gaining dominant positions.
Key Grappling Techniques Could Define Oliveira’s Approach
Thomas highlighted back control as a critical element of Oliveira’s strategy, recommending persistent attempts to take Topuria’s back through takedowns aimed at the hips. He noted that, although Topuria will likely attempt to defend against these takedowns, Oliveira should look for opportunities to gain bodylocks or employ bodylock trips to manipulate Topuria’s balance and force him to fight off attacks.
“You can’t just do one thing. You have to have strategies in multiple ways, but I think one key, I’d say cornerstone, of the strategy I would have would be back-takes, back exposure. Getting back exposure, and in particular, shooting a takedown just to get to the hips. They’re probably gonna try and stuff it, but finding a way to get a bodylock, bodylock trip, any way in which to manipulate his weight so that he has to use his hands to defend, right?”
—Luke Thomas, MMA analyst and journalist
Thomas referenced a moment during UFC 282 when Bryce Mitchell briefly succeeded against Topuria by maintaining top control, which forced Topuria to adjust his tactics. Oliveira could replicate a similar approach by pressuring Topuria’s defense and repeatedly threatening the back to control the pace and scoring of the fight.
“He has to wrestle him to his hands in some kind of way and then initiate the back-take. I think body triangle, steal a round. I genuinely mean that. We saw Bryce Mitchell end up on top in a scenario and then Topuria was like, ‘I’m not gonna risk it here.’ How many times can you do that? Taking the back for Oliveira? I’d say, tops, probably two times, but I think that has to be part of the strategy. I think threatening the back in that way and being able to take it and hold it, pretty critical.”
—Luke Thomas, MMA analyst and journalist
Though Thomas emphasizes this steady grappling method, Oliveira himself appears confident in his striking ability and may not fully depend on cautious grappling to secure a win.
Oliveira’s Track Record Against UFC’s Top Fighters
Known as the UFC’s most successful submission specialist and a former lightweight champion, Charles Oliveira has yet to defeat an undisputed UFC champion. His victories over interim titleholders such as Justin Gaethje, Tony Ferguson, and Dustin Poirier showcase his skill, but he has faced setbacks against undisputed champions including Max Holloway, Frankie Edgar, Anthony Pettis, and Islam Makhachev.
Each of these undisputed champions has beaten Oliveira convincingly, underscoring a hurdle he must overcome to reclaim the lightweight throne. For example, Oliveira was decisively dropped by Makhachev in their encounter, highlighting the challenge posed by elite opposition at the highest championship level.
Implications for UFC 317 and Lightweight Division
The outcome of UFC 317 will be pivotal for both fighters, with the vacant lightweight title on the line. Oliveira’s potential use of a wrestling-heavy strategy could force Topuria to adapt, possibly slowing down the fight and creating openings for Oliveira’s striking. Conversely, Topuria’s favored status will test Oliveira’s ability to blend grappling control with his knockout power.
If Oliveira succeeds in implementing Thomas’s recommended back control strategy while leveraging his own strengths, he could finally conquer a top-tier undisputed champion. On the other hand, Topuria’s pursuit of the title as “El Matador” will push the lightweight division’s competitiveness to new heights.