Ilia Topuria is set to contend for the UFC lightweight title against Charles Oliveira at UFC 317 on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, aiming to add to his featherweight championship legacy. This bout offers Topuria a critical chance to become a two–division UFC champion, an accomplishment achieved by few in the sport’s history. However, if Topuria suffers his first career loss, the ramifications for his ranking and future matchups could be significant, shifting the course of his career and the division’s landscape.
While Topuria won’t face pound-for-pound king Islam Makhachev, who is moving up to welterweight to become a champ-champ, a victory over Oliveira for the vacant lightweight belt would place Topuria among elite two–division champions such as Georges St-Pierre, Jon Jones, and Amanda Nunes. Conversely, a defeat would be his first professional loss and could spark a fan backlash, possibly altering public perception of his potential. MMA Fighting analysts Mike Heck, Damon Martin, and Alexander K. Lee have examined how this result might reshape rankings and title contention in the wake of UFC 317.
What Might Come Next for Ilia Topuria If He Does Not Win?
Mike Heck predicts that regardless of the outcome, Topuria’s immediate future probably involves a bout with rising star Paddy Pimblett. Topuria has expressed confidence in his move up to lightweight and feels revitalized competing at 155 pounds. Even with a loss, it’s expected he won’t return to featherweight soon, as he appears committed to remaining in the lightweight division and maintaining his standing. Winning against Pimblett next could restore his momentum quickly.
Damon Martin adds an intriguing alternative fight possibility, proposing a matchup against Dan Hooker. The physical contrast between Hooker’s 6-foot frame and Topuria’s 5-foot-7 stature could evoke memorable confrontations reminiscent of the PRIDE era’s unpredictable battles. Hooker, once gaining significant momentum after beating Mateusz Gamrot, has faced injuries that stalled his rise. Martin suggests that a Topuria vs. Hooker fight would be a fascinating option if the Pimblett matchup doesn’t materialize, continuing Topuria’s presence at the division’s upper echelon no matter the UFC 317 outcome.
Alexander K. Lee is more skeptical about Topuria’s refusal to consider a return to featherweight, interpreting it as a reflection of Topuria’s confidence in victory. Lee points out that losing to Oliveira would not be shameful, as Oliveira is a lightweight legend. However, with Islam Makhachev leaving the lightweight division, Topuria’s chances to become undisputed champion narrow. Lee advises that if Topuria cannot overcome Oliveira, revisiting the featherweight division — where he previously defeated Alexander Volkanovski to claim the title — might be a strategic move to pursue rematches and confront emerging challengers like Jean Silva, Movsar Evloev, and Aaron Pico.
Could Alexandre Pantoja Rise in Pound-for-Pound Rankings If Topuria Falters?
In the event Topuria loses, speculation surrounds whether flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja could climb to the No. 2 pound-for-pound position. Pantoja is currently tied for third place with bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili. Alexander K. Lee supports the possibility, stating that if Pantoja secures his fourth consecutive title defense while Topuria falls short, Pantoja deserves elevation in the rankings. However, Lee acknowledges that fighters moving up divisions face ranking penalties and cautions that a Topuria defeat—unless controversial—would justify a ranking slide.
Mike Heck does not foresee Pantoja jumping to second on his list, although he recognizes Pantoja’s talent. Heck ranks Pantoja fifth, behind Makhachev, Topuria, Dricus du Plessis, and Dvalishvili. Winning against Kai Kara-France at UFC 317 would likely move Pantoja up, but not ahead of du Plessis or Dvalishvili. The landscape remains fluid since Kara-France is coming off notable wins and carries momentum in the co-main event.
Damon Martin is less optimistic about Pantoja’s chance to become No. 2 due to the level of competition in the flyweight division. Martin points out that while Pantoja has impressive wins over Brandon Royval and Brandon Moreno, some of his other victories lack elite opponents, which restrains his ranking progress. Facing Kai Kara-France, a fighter with an upsurge in form, poses a high-risk but low-reward scenario for Pantoja. Martin suggests that the most realistic outcome is that Pantoja maintains or slightly improves his current position rather than making a significant leap.
Key Non-Title Fights to Watch at UFC 317
Damon Martin highlights the late addition of Joshua Van stepping in to fight Brandon Royval after Manel Kape’s withdrawal due to injury. At 23 years old, Van is seen as a promising figure in the flyweight division, and a victory over Royval, a recognized contender, would boost Van’s credibility and WWE rankings dramatically. Despite short notice, Royval’s acceptance underscores the bout’s intensity. Martin characterizes this fight as a potential candidate to earn Fight of the Night honors.
Alexander K. Lee expresses interest in Beneil Dariush’s longevity and performance at UFC 317. Dariush, a 16-year UFC veteran who turned 36 in May, has lacked consistent title contention despite his skills. Lee muses whether another loss might signal the twilight of Dariush’s career but hopes to see him continue, notably in an upcoming fight against Renato Moicano.
Mike Heck directs attention to the main card opener between Payton Talbott and Felipe Lima. Talbott has received considerable promotional support but suffered a setback in UFC 311 against Raoni Barcelos. Rather than match him against a less challenging opponent, UFC books Talbott against Lima, whose recent performances moving up a weight class have been impressive. Heck finds this stylistic clash fascinating and acknowledges that a Talbott loss here would carry serious implications for the young fighter’s trajectory.
Implications of UFC 317 for Topuria and the Lightweight Division
The outcome of UFC 317 will be pivotal for Ilia Topuria’s career outlook and the lightweight division hierarchy. A win would catapult him into history alongside dominant two-division champions, solidifying his reputation and potentially setting up future mega-fights, possibly even advancing toward a showdown with Islam Makhachev at welterweight. Conversely, a loss could prompt Topuria to reconsider his path, perhaps returning to featherweight to reclaim his dominance or taking compelling matchups at lightweight to rebuild his standing.
For the division as a whole, shifting rankings caused by UFC 317 may open opportunities for other contenders like Alexandre Pantoja, Brandon Royval, and newcomers such as Joshua Van, reshaping the title landscape. Meanwhile, intrigue around fighters like Beneil Dariush and the evolving dynamics of matchups throughout the card emphasize the ongoing unpredictability and competitiveness inherent in the UFC.
As the fighters prepare for the high-stakes battles under the bright lights of Las Vegas, UFC 317 promises to influence not only title lineages but also the future narratives of fighters striving to become legends in their weight classes.