Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Oneil Cruz has been awarded an unexpected All-Star nod for the 2024 MLB season, surpassing Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder Andy Pages despite a notably higher strikeout rate. This selection highlights the extraordinary potential and impact Cruz has exhibited through his rare combination of size, speed, and power.

At 6-foot-7 and 240 pounds, Cruz’s unique physical profile and electric playing style distinguish him from his peers, even though he has battled injury setbacks, including a broken leg that limited him to just 309 career games over five seasons. Recognized by experts and fans alike for his upside, Cruz’s recent full-time shift to center field and his standout underlying metrics have earned him accolades despite statistical shortcomings.

Context Behind Cruz’s All-Star Selection Over Dodgers’ Andy Pages

Oneil Cruz’s All-Star nod, projected by a former MLB general manager and published by The Athletic, reflects more than just surface-level statistics—it considers the environments and circumstances influencing his performance. While Andy Pages, a 24-year-old fixture in the Dodgers’ formidable lineup, posts a higher batting average (.294) and solid power numbers (15 home runs), Cruz’s numbers present a mixed yet compelling profile. Cruz’s batting average stands at .223 with 13 homers and an unusually high strikeout rate of 32.6%.

The teams behind these two players tell an important story. Pages benefits from playing alongside established stars such as Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Shohei Ohtani, providing protection and lineup strength that can ease pitcher pressure. In contrast, Cruz often faces pitchers willing to challenge him directly, as the Pirates’ lineup features few threats to protect him. Pittsburgh ranks near the bottom of MLB offensive categories, including a 77 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) ranking 29th in the league and the fewest runs scored (235) as of mid-June.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers occupy top spots in those same categories, underscoring the difference in support each player receives. This context frames Cruz not as just another energy bat but as the central offensive figure for Pittsburgh, carrying a disproportionate share of the team’s hopes and production.

How Advanced Metrics Elevate Cruz’s Value

Beyond traditional statistics, Cruz’s advanced metrics portray a player with elite raw tools. He ranks in the 100th percentile for bat speed, exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel percentage, showcasing power-hitter attributes rarely found. His plate discipline also impresses, with a 14.7% walk rate landing him in the 96th percentile, complementing his aggressive style. Additionally, Cruz leads the National League with 25 stolen bases, with remarkable efficiency evidenced by only three times caught stealing.

In contrast, Pages’s underlying numbers tell a more middling story. His average exit velocity of 89.1 miles per hour places him in the 36th percentile, a barrel rate of 8.7% just below average in the 48th percentile, and a hard-hit rate of 38.5% ranks him only in the 27th percentile. His walk rate of 4.5% is particularly low, falling into the 10th percentile. These metrics indicate that while Pages has been a solid contributor, he lacks the elite physical attributes that Cruz possesses.

Recognizing Cruz’s Flaws and Unique Qualities

Cruz’s exceptional physical gifts come with inherent challenges. His lengthy levers create difficulty in consistently controlling his swing, leading to a staggering 34.1% whiff rate, which is worse than 98% of comparable players. This high strikeout and miss rate is a persistent flaw, though it is partially offset by his power, speed, and patience at the plate.

Despite these shortcomings, Cruz’s rare combination of size, speed, and elite power makes him a unique figure in the MLB. His ability to change the game in multiple ways is what sets him apart as a potential generational talent. If Cruz were placed in a stronger offensive lineup like the Dodgers’, perceptions might shift dramatically, with him viewed as a leading star and Pages as developing talent.

The Broader Significance of Cruz’s All-Star Nod

Oneil Cruz’s selection as an All-Star speaks to his standout presence in a league filled with exceptional athletes. His role as the primary offensive catalyst for the Pittsburgh Pirates, despite the team’s struggles, highlights the level of trust and expectation placed upon him. For a franchise that has lacked consistent offensive production, Cruz’s emergence offers hope and excitement to its fans.

While his strikeout rate and production may raise eyebrows, the decision to elevate Cruz instead of Pages acknowledges the value of raw talent, impact, and the context in which each player performs. Moving forward, Cruz’s development and ability to refine his swing while maintaining his dynamic skill set will be critical to realizing his full potential. His All-Star nod is both a reward for his talent and a challenge to grow into the superstar many believe he can become.