This weekend at UFC 317, Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira will face off to determine the new UFC lightweight champion. The outcome of this high-stakes bout will shape the future landscape of the ultra-competitive lightweight division, known for its depth and talent.
With the spotlight on the Charles Oliveira UFC lightweight contender status, the question arises: who could be the next challenger depending on who claims the belt at UFC 317?
Top Contender as Backup and Immediate Successor: Arman Tsarukyan
In anticipation of unforeseen issues, the UFC has assigned Arman Tsarukyan as the backup fighter for the title fight at UFC 317. Ranked just behind Islam Makhachev, who recently moved up to welterweight, Tsarukyan stands as the number two lightweight contender.
Tsarukyan’s credentials include a recent victory over Charles Oliveira and a four-fight winning streak, bringing his UFC record to 9-2. Despite this, he missed a direct title shot earlier this year due to a back injury, which likely influenced the UFC’s initial exclusion of him from the main fight.
Being the official backup hints at Tsarukyan’s close proximity to another title shot. Should Oliveira retain the championship, Tsarukyan’s chances to challenge him again will be particularly strong because of his prior win over ‘Do Bronx.’ Conversely, if Topuria becomes champion, the challenger picture may shift toward more marketable fighters, but Tsarukyan remains a leading option.
Justin Gaethje’s Potential Title Aspirations and Retirement Rumors
With Islam Makhachev’s departure from lightweight and the subsequent vacating of the title, Justin Gaethje’s anticipated shot at the belt faded. Ranked third behind Tsarukyan and Oliveira, Gaethje remains a formidable contender, having claimed victory in three of his last four fights, including an impressive win over Rafael Fiziev.
Nevertheless, Gaethje’s recent knockout loss to Max Holloway and a previous defeat against Oliveira dampen his claim. Moreover, reports surfaced that Gaethje is contemplating retirement if he doesn’t receive a title shot in his next fight, signaling his frustration with the UFC’s matchmaking.
Gaethje could emerge as a fitting challenger if Topuria wins the title, given that ‘El Matador’ might pursue a high-profile next opponent. The potential clash between Topuria and Gaethje holds strong appeal for fans, making Gaethje’s hopes especially tied to the UFC 317 outcome.
Max Holloway’s Path via UFC 318 and Legacy Impact
UFC 318, scheduled for July, will feature a ‘BMF’ title fight headline between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier, marking Poirier’s final UFC appearance. Holloway is widely expected to be the favorite in this bout.
If Holloway wins UFC 318, his claim for a lightweight title shot could strengthen, but a significant obstacle remains: he suffered the first knockout loss of his career to Ilia Topuria in late 2024. Due to the severity of that defeat, Topuria is unlikely to grant Holloway an immediate shot if he becomes champion.
On the other hand, should Charles Oliveira regain or retain the lightweight belt, Holloway’s standing could improve. Holloway defeated Justin Gaethje last year and has a contentious past with Oliveira, including a controversial fight ten years ago that could fuel demand for a rematch.
Therefore, Holloway’s potential as a title challenger is tightly intertwined not only with Poirier’s fate but also with who wins at UFC 317, highlighting the complex dynamics within the division.
Paddy Pimblett’s Rising Star Status and Title Shot Possibility
Paddy Pimblett, often described as a wild card contender, recently secured his biggest win by defeating Michael Chandler, signaling his ascent within the UFC lightweight ranks. Despite this, Pimblett holds the No.8 ranking, behind fighters like Dan Hooker and Mateusz Gamrot, which many view as a ranking anomaly given his momentum.
‘The Baddy’ shares a notable rivalry with Ilia Topuria, originating from a confrontation in 2022, and Topuria himself has expressed interest in fighting Pimblett, contingent on another victory. Although Oliveira has not publicly called out Pimblett, ‘Do Bronx’ traditionally refrains from naming future opponents.
Pimblett’s rapid rise and entertaining style put him in a prime position to challenge either champion in the near future. It’s plausible the UFC will arrange an opponent suited to build Pimblett’s profile further, aiming to set up a title opportunity within the coming year.
Looking Ahead: The Future of the Lightweight Division
The outcome of UFC 317 between Charles Oliveira and Ilia Topuria will heavily influence the lightweight division’s trajectory. Arman Tsarukyan stands as a logical immediate challenger given his ranking and prior victory over Oliveira, especially if ‘Do Bronx’ retains or regains the title.
Justin Gaethje’s future remains uncertain, depending on whether he receives a title shot or decides to retire amid frustrations over matchmaking. Meanwhile, Max Holloway’s route back to a championship fight hinges on both UFC 317 and UFC 318 results, complicated by past losses to Topuria and competitive history with Oliveira.
Paddy Pimblett’s potential shortcut to a title shot adds an intriguing dynamic given his recent wins and rivalry with Topuria. His continued rise may place him among the most talked-about contenders in the months ahead.
As the UFC lightweight division continues to evolve, the winner of the Oliveira vs. Topuria battle will face pressing decisions about their next challenger, with several fighters eagerly preparing to stake their claim to the belt.