As the MLB trade deadline nears, the Baltimore Orioles confront a pivotal moment in their 2024 campaign, holding a disheartening 33-44 record as of late June and positioned at the bottom of the American League East. The team’s slim playoff probability of just 0.4% underscores the urgency surrounding their choices, especially as they wrestle with whether to hold onto or trade key players like veteran pitcher Zach Eflin.
Despite the disappointing season so far, the Orioles remain hesitant to fully commit to a rebuilding phase, instead clinging to hopes of a late surge. However, if the team elects to sell assets, Eflin stands out as a valuable pitcher who could attract several postseason-caliber buyers.
Zach Eflin’s Performance: Early Promise and Recent Challenges
Zach Eflin’s time with Baltimore has been a rollercoaster. Originally acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays just before last year’s trade deadline, Eflin made a strong early impression, finishing the 2023 season with a 5-2 record and an impressive 2.60 ERA across nine starts. His ability to strike out 47 batters in 55.1 innings and generate 1.8 bWAR positioned him as a reliable rotation piece.
This season, however, has been less kind to Eflin. Over 11 starts, his ERA ballooned to 5.46 in 61 innings pitched, while his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) at 5.53 and an ERA+ of 70 indicate struggles to perform at or above league average. Still, his experience and past success provide reason for optimistic teams to consider him for a key pitching role heading into the postseason.
The Value of Postseason Experience for Potential Suitors
Eflin’s appeal extends beyond raw statistics to his seasoned postseason background, featuring appearances in the playoffs for three consecutive years with three different clubs: the Philadelphia Phillies in 2022, the Tampa Bay Rays in 2023, and the Orioles last season. This unusual streak of playoff exposure highlights Eflin’s familiarity with high-pressure games, enticing teams seeking veterans familiar with October baseball.
Speculation points to the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants as the most probable trade destinations. The Cubs face pitching woes after losing Justin Steele to a season-ending injury and are awaiting Shota Imanaga’s recovery, creating a pressing need for rotation support. Meanwhile, the Giants, fresh off acquiring slugger Rafael Devers, seek durable pitching options to complement their offensive investments. For either club, Eflin could fill a middle-rotation spot that suits his current abilities better than the expectations he has shouldered in Baltimore.
Orioles’ Strategic Crossroads: Balancing Present and Future
The Orioles’ dilemma lies in balancing short-term ambitions with the longer-term goal of building a sustainable, competitive team. The choice to trade Zach Eflin would mark a shift toward prioritizing development and future rewards over immediate success. Conversely, standing firm and retaining Eflin reflects a continued belief in contending this season, despite the formidable obstacles.
This decision embodies the broader identity struggle facing Baltimore—a team oscillating between phases and valuations, wrestling with what direction to commit to amidst fluctuating performance. The outcome of Eflin’s status not only influences the rotation but also signals the front office’s approach as the trade deadline passes.
Implications of the Trade Deadline and What Lies Ahead
With the trade deadline fast approaching, the fate of Zach Eflin serves as a significant indicator for the Orioles’ strategic intentions. A trade could usher in a new chapter focused on rebuilding and retooling, while keeping Eflin would suggest a commitment to the pursuit of a playoff berth, however unlikely it may seem at this point. Whichever path Baltimore chooses will reverberate throughout the franchise and influence roster construction well beyond the current season.