During the Toronto Maple Leafs’ 2016 home opener against the Boston Bruins, Mitch Marner scored the first goal of his NHL career in just his second game, thrilling the home crowd. Now, with free agency opening on July 1 and a return to Toronto looking less likely, Marner’s next destination remains uncertain, sparking speculation about a possible move to the Vegas Golden Knights. His remarkable 102-point season made him one of the most valuable free agents available, positioning him at the center of intense interest league-wide.
The Vegas Golden Knights have shown a willingness to make bold moves in the free agency market, having pursued high-profile players like Tomáš Hertl and Alex Pietrangelo in recent years. Despite falling short against the Edmonton Oilers in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, Vegas remains eager to strengthen its roster without rebuilding, making Marner an attractive option.
Understanding the Shifts in NHL Free Agency
The NHL’s salary cap is slated to increase steadily over the next three seasons—from $7.5 million in 2025-26 to $9.5 million by 2027-28—offering teams greater financial flexibility to chase top talents like Marner. This rise in the cap will make free agency more competitive, as many franchises, including the Chicago Blackhawks aiming to support star Connor Bedard, and the Anaheim Ducks under coach Joel Quenneville, strive to improve their lineups.
While this year’s free agent class does not match the depth of the 2024 crop, players such as Aaron Ekblad, Vladislav Gavrikov, and Jake Allen remain highly sought after, especially due to a shortage of defensemen and goaltenders. Industry insiders warn that free agency often presents opportunities for costly missteps, underscoring the importance of careful contract negotiations this offseason.
Mitch Marner leads this free agent group and carries significant implications: how much will he seek, when will he make his decision, and how will his signing influence the movements of other teams? His availability is rare, likened to the previous significant market moment when John Tavares left the New York Islanders to join the Maple Leafs.
Mitch Marner’s Journey and Contract Options
Marner’s roots trace back to Markham, Ontario, just a short drive from Toronto, where he grew up cheering for the Maple Leafs and admired legends like Mats Sundin and Doug Gilmour. His selection as the fourth overall pick in the 2015 NHL Draft brought a hometown hero into a franchise with immense expectations.
Took maybe a risky pick on a small kid from Toronto and been forever grateful to be able to wear this Maple Leaf and be a part of some of the great legends here. So, never taken a day for granted and always loved it.
—Mitch Marner
While it is expected that Marner will test free agency, the key questions revolve around contract length and terms. One potential path is a short-term deal, lasting 2-4 years, with an estimated average annual value (AAV) near $13 million, allowing Marner to maximize his earnings by seeking another contract while still in his prime.
If he opts for a long-term contract, such as a seven-year agreement at the same AAV, that would total approximately $91 million, concluding when Marner is about 35 years old, potentially foregoing higher earnings later. Alternatively, a four-year deal could offer $52 million and position him for a larger contract at age 32.
I got pushback on the idea Marner could opt for a four-year deal — giving him another payday at age 32 — but a few teams said they’d heard about it,
Elliotte Friedman noted.
Lots of twists and turns on this file over the next two weeks. Barring a sudden change in philosophy, Carolina is expected to push all chips into the pot. I’m watching Vegas, with several of their Western Conference brethren pushing hard.
—Elliotte Friedman
The Current State of the Vegas Golden Knights
Las Vegas found themselves trailing 2-0 in their critical playoff series against the Edmonton Oilers, with tense moments like an overtime game decided by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl’s collaboration. A late goal by Reilly Smith in Game 3 reignited some hope, but subsequent shutouts by goaltender Stuart Skinner in Games 4 and 5 extinguished their chances.
This disappointment marks a decline from Vegas’ standout regular season performance, during which they averaged 3.34 goals per game, compared to just 2.45 in the playoffs. Pavel Dorofeyev, the team’s regular-season leading goal scorer with 35 goals, managed only a single goal across eight playoff games, reflecting wider underperformance among key players.
Though a complete roster overhaul is unlikely after one difficult postseason, the team must avoid complacency to maintain competitiveness. Marner’s availability presents a rare opportunity to elevate Vegas’ offensive depth and skillset, particularly when combined with talents like Mark Stone and Jack Eichel.
However, salary cap constraints remain a significant hurdle. Marner’s forthcoming contract is expected to place him among the league’s highest-paid players, exceeded only by Connor McDavid after his next deal. One potential solution could involve placing defenseman Alex Pietrangelo on long-term injured reserve or his possible retirement, which would free up valuable cap space.
Every year, I hear, ‘Oh, Pietrangelo is so badly beaten up, and he’s put his body through so much, and he’s not going to be able to play next season,’
Friedman remarked.
And every year I get told, ‘That’s wrong.’ And every year, he’s back, and he plays, and he plays hard, and he plays great.
—Elliotte Friedman
Additional cap relief could be found through trades or contract adjustments involving players such as Ivan Barbashev, William Karlsson, and Tomáš Hertl. However, these potential moves remain speculative until official confirmation.
How Vegas Could Appeal to Marner
Kelly McCrimmon’s approach to securing Marner should be strategic rather than transactional. Drawing from marketing expert Seth Godin’s philosophy,
Don’t find customers for your products; find products for your customers.
a tailored pitch emphasizing how Marner fits uniquely with the Golden Knights may hold the key.
Vegas cannot expect Marner to single-handedly transform the team, but his versatile skills could address pressing needs, especially since the departure of Jonathan Marchessault has left thin options on the wings. Aside from Mark Stone, the team’s depth at forward has been inconsistent.
Dorofeyev’s strong regular-season showing has not translated into playoff success, and while Barbashev maintains a steady presence, neither has delivered consistently breathtaking performances. Marner’s addition could raise the team’s offensive ceiling considerably when paired with existing stars.
The allure of Vegas as a destination involves more than just the lineup. Marner would trade the intense pressure of playing in Toronto for the vibrant atmosphere of Sin City, a contrast some players find appealing. Despite the city’s summer heat exceeding 110 degrees, winters offer mild, comfortable conditions around 50 degrees—a small but noteworthy quality of life factor in player decisions.
If cap space is managed successfully, Vegas could offer the financial resources and a winning culture that Marner desires. His signing would represent a significant offseason acquisition with far-reaching implications for the league.
What Marner’s Decision Could Mean for the NHL
The potential signing of Mitch Marner by the Vegas Golden Knights could dramatically alter the Western Conference landscape. Although Vegas does not absolutely require Marner to be competitive, his presence would place them ahead of several rivals, escalating the team’s chances to contend for another Stanley Cup.
As the NHL approaches its 2025 Draft on June 27 and 28, the upcoming weeks promise substantial roster moves from multiple teams eager to improve their fortunes. The free agency period will be closely watched for Marner’s choice, which could trigger a domino effect affecting player movement across all 32 teams.
The outcome remains uncertain, but the possibility of a Mitch Marner Vegas Golden Knights partnership stands out as one of the most significant storylines heading into the offseason.