Since the offseason, Nolan Arenado has been at the center of trade rumors involving the St. Louis Cardinals, generating much speculation about whether he might be moved. However, Arenado’s no-trade clause means that any deal would require his approval, making a trade away from the Cardinals this season highly unlikely despite the ongoing chatter in MLB circles.
The Cardinals’ general manager, John Mozeliak, had prioritized trading Arenado last offseason in a push to bring more youth into the organization. That plan never came to fruition because Arenado, who values stability and the comfort of his family, declined to approve any potential trade. The player’s preference for remaining with the team has effectively stalled any move.
Evaluating the Chances of a Trade at the Upcoming Deadline
ESPN analysts Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan recently ranked Arenado 21st among the top 50 MLB trade deadline candidates, placing his likelihood of being traded at roughly 30 percent. Their assessment highlighted that while Arenado’s strikeout rate is near a career best and he remains a skilled defender, his power hitting and plate discipline have declined to career lows.
“Arenado is around a career best in strikeout rate, and he’s still an above-average defender, but his power and patience are both trending down to around the worst of his career. He’s still a solid starter but no longer a star, and the team taking him on a deal would still have to pay him like one. Potentially complicating any deal: a full no-trade clause.” —Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan, ESPN.com
The pair suggested that teams like the New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, Milwaukee Brewers, and Seattle Mariners could be fits for Arenado, but none of these destinations appear ideal from the player’s perspective. His connection to the Cardinals runs deep, and it is difficult to picture him opting to leave St. Louis.
Nolan Arenado’s Current Performance and Role with the Cardinals
This season, Arenado is hitting .251 with an on-base plus slugging (OPS+) of 99, accompanied by 10 home runs, 11 doubles, one triple, 37 runs scored, 39 RBIs, and one stolen base across 73 games. These statistics show that he is still contributing offensively for the Cardinals. Defensively, he continues to be a top performer, with four defensive runs saved and three outs above average this year.
More importantly, Arenado has visibly evolved in his leadership role. He is now actively engaging with coaches and younger players, fostering a positive clubhouse environment. His demeanor reflects contentment both on and off the field, signaling a deeper commitment to the team’s current direction.
The Cardinals’ Team Dynamics and Potential Moving Forward
The Cardinals have enjoyed a noticeable turnaround this season, building strong chemistry among players and staff. With a record of 43-36, they are tied with the Milwaukee Brewers and remain 3.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs, who they are set to face in an upcoming series in St. Louis. This competitive stretch is encouraging for a team that has undergone significant internal shifts over the past two years.
Alongside Arenado, key figures like Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbaar, Sonny Gray, and Brendan Donovan are contributing to this promising roster. Arenado’s leadership is valued by this young squad, and his presence helps maintain team cohesion. Trading him midseason could disrupt the progress made and unsettle the club’s positive momentum.
Why Staying with the Cardinals Makes Sense for Arenado and the Team
Nolan Arenado’s refusal to approve a trade reflects his desire to remain a central figure in St. Louis. Having orchestrated his initial move from the Colorado Rockies to the Cardinals, he clearly wants to continue building on what he has established here. Both the player and the organization benefit from this stability, particularly as the team seeks to capitalize on its current potential.
With his no-trade clause and evident satisfaction within the clubhouse, a trade involving Arenado this season remains improbable. The Cardinals view him as a cornerstone of the current team, and his leadership continues to shape the clubhouse positively. Any deviation from this path could prove disruptive to a team gaining traction in a competitive National League Central division.