At UFC 317 this weekend in Las Vegas, Brazilian fighter Charles Oliveira faces a tough challenge against rising star Ilia Topuria for the vacant lightweight championship. Despite heavy odds favoring Topuria, Oliveira’s UFC victory prediction remains an intriguing topic among analysts and fans due to his experience and versatile skill set.
The event marks a critical moment for Dana White’s promotion as it looks to regain momentum in a year dominated by potential big-name clashes such as Jon Jones versus Tom Aspinall. With Topuria heavily favored to secure the belt after an impressive undefeated streak, Oliveira enters the Octagon as an underdog but with strong backing from some experts who expect a complex and competitive fight.
Analysis of Fighters’ Backgrounds and Current Momentum
Ilia Topuria has gained significant attention after moving up to lightweight from featherweight, where he enjoyed a dominant run. Known for his aggressive style and power, the Spaniard has defeated top contenders like Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway by knockout in his last two fights. His momentum and confidence have led many to predict a lengthy title reign if he secures the championship at UFC 317.
Conversely, Charles Oliveira holds an enviable UFC legacy with the most finishes and submissions in the organization’s history and over 46 Octagon appearances. Although his recent record shows some inconsistency with two wins and two losses in his last four bouts, including competitive losses to top fighters like Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan, Oliveira’s experience and strategic adaptability remain key assets.
Expert Predictions Highlight Divide Over UFC 317 Outcome
Among several media analysts, Kweku Afaria sees Topuria ending Oliveira’s run in the second round, citing Topuria’s 16-fight unbeaten streak and recent dominance over legacy fighters:
“It’s a boring pick, but I’m going for Ilia ‘El Matador’ Topuria, the man riding a 16-fight unbeaten streak coming into this fight,”
Afaria said.
“But I believe Topuria gets the job done in the second round, and we’re going to see a long, long reign from one of the best fighters in the UFC.”
—Kweku Afaria, talkSPORT Reporter
Ben Davies, talkSPORT’s Boxing and MMA editor, also expects Topuria’s power to be decisive, predicting a knockout within three rounds:
“A big KO is coming and I can’t see it going beyond three rounds, with ‘El Matador’ declared a double champ.”
—Ben Davies, Boxing and MMA Editor
Similarly, Vanessa D’Ambrosio stresses Topuria’s overwhelming striking ability and power while acknowledging Oliveira’s resilience and fight IQ:
“My heart says Charles Oliveira, but my head says Ilia Topuria,”
she said.
“Topuria is the new era of this division and he’s going to be an absolute superstar for a very long time.”
—Vanessa D’Ambrosio, talkSPORT Contributor
Despite the widespread backing for Topuria, some analysts diverge sharply, including George Glinski, talkSPORT’s Senior Boxing and MMA reporter. Glinski believes Topuria’s recent weight gain could impair his endurance and gives Oliveira the edge through his broader set of winning strategies and championship experience:
“I’m going against the grain on this one,”
Glinski said.
“The oddsmakers have got it all wrong. Topuria enters fight night as a resounding -450 favourite (the second biggest odds of his UFC career). However, this is a pick ’em fight in my eyes. I’ve gone back and forth over who I think will win, but after careful deliberation I’m edging Oliveira via fifth-round submission.”
—George Glinski, Senior Boxing and MMA Reporter
He emphasizes Oliveira’s superior ground game and ability to secure submissions as critical factors that could come into play during the championship rounds.
Technical Matchup and Tactical Advantages for Both Fighters
Alex Ritchings, host of MMA On Point and a co-host on talkSPORT’s talkMMA show, provides a detailed analysis of the contrasting fighting styles and weaponry both champions bring into the cage. He notes that while Topuria relies on closing distance and using devastating combinations up close, Oliveira is likely to seek opportunities from range:
“I see this as a matchup of extreme stylistic advantages and disadvantages for both guys,”
Ritchings said.
“Both guys like to come forward a lot, so really how does that look from the opening bell? Who’s going to be giving up the space? Simply because Charles typically always comes forward like a freight train, but in his most recent fight against Michael Chandler, we saw a bit more of a measured approach.”
—Alex Ritchings, MMA Host
Ritchings further explains that Topuria’s strength lies in striking inside the pocket, where he launches head and body combinations and can exploit Oliveira’s tendency to protect his head while leaving his body open. Oliveira’s counter is his kicking game and ground fighting ability, which Topuria does not equally possess.
He concludes:
“I really like the matchup, but I would agree: Topuria is the favourite for this one, and he will win at UFC 317.”
Experience Versus Momentum: What Might Decide UFC 317
Lewis Thompson, talkSPORT’s Boxing and MMA writer, underscores Oliveira’s depth of experience as a deciding factor, warning against underestimating the Brazilian’s capability to extend the fight into the later rounds:
“Oliveira is being seriously overlooked in this fight, and his path to victory might be easier than most people believe,”
Thompson said.
He points out Oliveira’s record-breaking number of finishes and submissions as testament to the threat he still poses. Thompson also remarks that although Oliveira’s recent record is balanced, his losses were closely contested and fought against elite competition. Additionally, Oliveira’s size advantage could allow him to control the fight on the ground and capitalize on Topuria’s lesser experience defending back control.
Nevertheless, Thompson ultimately foresees a championship round encounter with Topuria emerging victorious:
“With all that said, I just can’t look past Topuria getting the win at UFC 317. I expect the fight to enter the championship rounds, with Oliveira proving why he’s such a veteran of the sport.”
Summary of Official TalkSPORT UFC 317 Predictions
The panel consensus strongly favors Ilia Topuria, with predicted fight endings ranging from early knockouts to unanimous decisions. Here is a summary of their views:
- Kweku Afaria: Topuria via second-round KO/TKO
- Alex Ritchings: Topuria via second-round KO/TKO
- George Glinski: Oliveira via fifth-round submission
- Ben Davies: Topuria via third-round KO/TKO
- Lewis Thompson: Topuria via unanimous decision
- Vanessa D’Ambrosio: Topuria via third-round TKO
Topuria’s status as favorite is rooted in his recent form, power, and forward pressure. Oliveira’s chances hinge on managing distance, employing his striking variety, and forcing the fight to the ground where he excels. Experts note concerns about Topuria’s increased mass possibly affecting his cardio in the later rounds, which Oliveira could exploit.
Importance of UFC 317 for UFC’s Lightweight Division
UFC 317 stands as a decisive moment for the lightweight division’s future, with the vacant title up for grabs and a clear transition in leadership on the horizon. Topuria represents the new generation aiming to solidify dominance in the 155-pound class, whereas Oliveira symbolizes veteran resilience and the possibility of a remarkable comeback story.
The event’s outcome will likely shape the division’s trajectory in the coming years, influencing matchmaking, title defenses, and the emergence of new contenders. For Dana White’s UFC, this event is a chance to reignite fan excitement after a quieter start to the year, setting the tone for a memorable summer season.
Ultimately, the fight promises to test contrasting styles, experience levels, and strategic approaches, captivating fight fans worldwide, and underscoring why Charles Oliveira UFC victory prediction remains a contentious and fascinating topic leading into UFC 317.