Detroit Tigers’ Riley Greene stands out as a prime choice for MLB home run picks on Saturday, June 28, as he faces Minnesota Twins pitcher Bailey Ober. With Greene’s strong track record against Twins pitching and Ober’s recent challenges in preventing home runs, Greene’s +425 odds make him an appealing target for bettors seeking valuable MLB player prop bets.
Greene has already belted 17 home runs during the 2025 season, showcasing his power at the plate, particularly against right-handed pitchers like Ober. Meanwhile, Ober has struggled recently, allowing 10 home runs over his past four starts, including three in a heavy defeat to the Seattle Mariners. This combination establishes a compelling case for Greene to continue his success in the upcoming matchup.
Riley Greene’s Performance and Home Run Potential Against Bailey Ober
Riley Greene has been hitting the ball hard lately, delivering multi-hit performances in nearly half of his last nine games. In a recent 9-3 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays, Greene went 3-for-4 and recorded two doubles, reaffirming his offensive form. His power surge includes a standout game on June 20, when he went 3-for-3 with two home runs and four RBIs against the Rays. At the midpoint of the season, Greene’s 17 home runs put him on pace to surpass his previous best of 24 home runs set in 2024.
Bailey Ober’s pitching has been vulnerable to home runs in recent outings. Batters have maintained a .946 OPS against him this month, and Ober surrendered three home runs in his last start. Although Greene is 3-for-13 lifetime versus Ober, his recent hot streak against right-handed pitching and Ober’s difficulties suggest Greene could break through this Saturday.
“Greene is just 3-13 in his career against Ober, but given Greene’s hot hitting against righties and Ober’s recent struggle, we believe he is due,”
SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said.
“We set the line at +375 for Greene to homer.”
He added that bet365 offers the best odds at +425, with a promotional bonus for new customers enhancing the betting value.
Other Promising MLB Home Run Picks for Saturday
Alongside Riley Greene, SportsLine’s projections highlight two additional players poised for potential home run success this Saturday.
Colton Cowser’s Resurgence for the Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles’ left fielder Colton Cowser has been regaining momentum after missing time due to injury, hitting three of his six home runs over the past nine games. Cowser’s power is a vital lift for the Orioles’ offense, as he finished last season with 24 home runs over 153 games. Notably, Cowser has found success against Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Zach Eflin, going 4-for-11 with two home runs in his career against him.
His recent performance includes an outstanding OPS of 1.099 over the last ten games and a solid batting average of .270 against right-handed pitchers, compared to struggles against lefties. These figures contribute to Cowser’s value as a home run pick at promising odds.
“Getting +400 here is strong value considering the average line for Cowser to hit a HR is +328,”
Fetner stated.
“Cowser is swinging a hot bat. Over the last 10 games, Cowser has three home runs and a 1.099 OPS. He’s also a strong play against right-handed pitchers, against whom he has a .270 average and .974 OPS compared to just a .150 average and .411 OPS against lefties. We set the line at +400 so there’s fair value here, but this is worth a play considering the Home Run Index at a 10 out of 10 and Cowser’s success against Eflin.”
FanDuel offers the best odds along with promotional codes to maximize returns.
Francisco Lindor’s Consistent Contribution for the New York Mets
New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor remains an impactful presence in the lineup, recording three multi-hit games in the last week, including two home runs. Through 81 games this season, Lindor has accumulated 16 homers, 14 doubles, and 43 RBIs while maintaining a .262 batting average. A recent game on June 21 against the Philadelphia Phillies highlighted his offensive production with a double, a homer, and three RBIs in an 11-4 win.
Lindor’s track record against Philadelphia pitcher Connor Brogdon Falter is modest but insightful. Though he is 3-for-10 in career at-bats against Falter, Lindor’s ability to reach base frequently via walks and his plate discipline suggest he sees the ball well against this pitcher. Falter has predominantly given up home runs to right-handed hitters this season, underlining Lindor’s potential advantage.
“Lindor is 3-for-10 against Falter in his career, but he does have five walks to one strikeout against Falter and has reached base in eight out of 15 plate appearances against Falter,”
Fetner explained.
“This indicates that he sees the ball well out of Falter’s hand. Lindor has been better against right-handed pitchers this season, but his career numbers are slightly better against lefties than righties. Falter has allowed seven of his nine home runs this season against right-handed batters. We set the line at +330 for Lindor to homer.”
Popular Sportsbooks Offering MLB Player Props for Saturday
Several major sportsbooks will provide extensive MLB player prop betting options for Saturday’s slate, featuring Riley Greene and other top home run picks.
Caesars Sportsbook is promoting a
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BetMGM extends up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if the initial wager loses, using code CBSSPORTS.
FanDuel’s bonus for MLB props is
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DraftKings offers a
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bet365 provides a
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promotion with code CBSBET365, aligning well with their +425 odds on Greene.
Broader MLB Player Prop Projections for Saturday
Beyond these featured home run selections, SportsLine’s advanced projection model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times to identify valuable player prop bets. This data-driven approach has yielded a strong track record, recently nailing Juan Soto’s home run prop at +450 odds and trending up 19.15 units over the past 81 days.
SportsLine continues to publish daily MLB player prop analyses, including recommended home run picks for Saturday’s games, parlays, and additional betting insights. Bettors looking to capitalize on MLB player props this weekend will find extensive expert data to inform their wagers on multiple platforms.