In the 2015 MLB Draft, the Texas Rangers selected Dillon Tate as the No. 4 overall pick, aiming to strengthen their struggling pitching staff. Tate, a right-handed pitcher from the University of California, Santa Barbara, was regarded as the premier pitching prospect in that draft class, chosen after three top-tier position players, including Dansby Swanson, who was selected first overall by the Arizona Diamondbacks.
High Hopes Tempered by a Slow Start
Tate entered the 2016 season as a widely praised top 100 prospect, raising expectations from fans and analysts about his impact with the Rangers. However, his progression stalled, and despite being a highly touted draft pick, he did not make his Major League debut until July 29, 2019, by which time he had already been traded away. Notably, Tate never pitched in a Major League game for Texas before being included in a trade package to the New York Yankees.
Trades and Struggles Define Tate’s Career
Tate’s professional journey involved multiple trades, including a move from the Yankees to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for Zach Britton. Throughout 195 Major League appearances—all in relief roles—he has posted a 4.11 ERA over 211 innings with a career bWAR of just 2.1. These statistics reflect a career far below the potential expected from a top-five draft pick, marking a disappointing trajectory for the Rangers’ investment.
Reassessing the 2015 Draft: A Different Outcome
Looking back, a hypothetical re-draft of 2015 positions Dansby Swanson as the optimal selection for the Rangers instead of Tate. Swanson, who was originally picked first overall, has blossomed into a significant MLB figure. He is a two-time National League All-Star and two-time Gold Glove Award winner, who played a vital part in the Atlanta Braves’ 2021 World Series victory.
Dansby Swanson’s Strong Performance and Enduring Value
Swanson’s career has steadily improved, culminating in a lucrative seven-year, $177 million contract with the Chicago Cubs before the 2023 season. Despite the pressures of being the No. 1 pick, he has maintained an average of around 2.6 bWAR annually, demonstrating reliability and consistent contributions both offensively and defensively.
The Broader Implications for the Rangers and the Draft’s Legacy
The contrasting paths of Dillon Tate and Dansby Swanson underline the unpredictable nature of MLB drafting and player development. For the Rangers, Tate’s underperformance represents a missed opportunity, made even more apparent by Swanson’s success and financial reward. This juxtaposition compels the franchise to reflect on past choices and reconsider their future strategies as they aim to assemble a more competitive roster moving forward. The 2015 draft’s long-lasting influence continues to shape perceptions of player potential and team decision-making.