The Chicago Bulls are approaching a pivotal moment regarding Josh Giddey, who was acquired in the trade that sent Alex Caruso to the Oklahoma City Thunder, the eventual NBA champions. As a restricted free agent this offseason, Giddey is expected to seek a contract near $30 million annually, placing the Bulls in a difficult negotiating position.
Giddey Bulls contract extension talks have stirred debate about how much the team should offer, particularly given Giddey’s promise balanced against his limitations in playoff scenarios. The Bulls’ handling of this contract could profoundly influence the franchise’s direction.
Expert Opinions Warn Bulls Against Overpaying Giddey
ESPN’s Zach Kram emphasized the importance of re-signing Giddey but cautioned against exceeding reasonable offer limits. He stated that while Giddey, who at 22 averaged nearly a triple-double from mid-February on, deserves a contract extension, the Bulls should avoid generosity that risks financial strain.
One move they should make: Extend restricted free agent guard Josh Giddey, who averaged nearly a triple-double from mid-February on. But Chicago … shouldn’t go overboard with its offer to Giddey, who still has obvious limitations in a playoff setting and likely won’t have many outside suitors,
Zach Kram wrote on June 29.
If the Bulls’ offer climbs into, say, Immanuel Quickley’s range (five years, $175 million), they’ve made a mistake.
Giddey, the No. 6 pick in the 2021 draft, is eligible for a max contract—potentially $38.6 million in 2025-26—due to his experience. However, many believe the Bulls will likely avoid pushing the deal that high this offseason.
Market Conditions Favor Bulls Limiting Contract Size
Limited competition for Giddey in free agency strengthens the Bulls’ bargaining position. With only the Brooklyn Nets possessing the salary cap space to present a strong offer, the Bulls might not face significant bidding wars. NBA salary cap analyst Keith Smith argued an annual average value (AAV) around $25 million should be sufficient from both sides.
You have to factor in where the cap growth has gone. So, I think if it gets much north of $25 [million, maybe $28 million, you have to start thinking, ‘All right, we’re going the other way.’ Here’s the challenge: Who’s giving him that kind of offer? I don’t know that there’s a team out there that’s going to give it to him,
Smith told Laurence Holmes and Matt Spiegel on Spiegel & Holmes on June 27.
That’s where I think that the Bulls, it kind of works a little bit more in their favor. Maybe more towards the $25 million range for a guy like Josh Giddey, than getting up into the $28 [million], $30 million. Because I just don’t think the Nets are parachuting in with an offer like that. Nor do I think a team’s coming in with anything like that through sign-and-trade.
If I’m Arturas [Karnisovas], that’s where I’m drawing the line. 4 years $80 million dollars
Smith further explained that a lower contract would be manageable given the Bulls’ current salary structure and the rising salary cap.
I think it’s okay because they don’t have a lot of long-term salary locked up on their books. And the important thing to note is a salary that’s less than $30 million sounds crazy, right? Because that was close to a max deal. The lowest in max deal next season is $38.6 million,
Smith said.
If you’re under $30 million, you’re talking about 20% of the cap or so, and then it won’t grow as much as the cap will grow over the next couple years. You can pitch the idea of, ‘Hey, just don’t do that. Let’s go into next summer with a whole crap-ton of cap space because they would only have a couple deals on the book, so they could really be in a good spot to go after people.
Bulls Possess Financial Flexibility but Face Risk of Overpay History
Chicago holds the cap flexibility to not only retain Giddey but also strengthen the roster with additional moves. NBA cap analyst Yossi Gozlan highlighted the Bulls’ financial leeway, noting their luxury tax room and available trade exceptions make a competitive Giddey offer feasible.
Chicago Bulls have a ton of flexibility to increase their payroll,
Gozlan posted on social media on June 28. The team can re-sign Giddey and utilize their $17.2 million trade exception or $14.1 million non-tax mid-level exception to further improve.
However, caution is warranted based on the Bulls’ prior contract decisions, which have complicated their roster management. Players like Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine, and Patrick Williams signed substantial deals that later hindered trading possibilities, leading to critical scrutiny of the Bulls’ past commitment strategies.
Additionally, the deal involving Caruso’s trade has drawn criticism for sacrificing future draft assets, leaving Giddey as the sole significant acquisition. Overcommitting to Giddey now could risk exacerbating the franchise’s challenges.
Recent On-Court Performance Adds Complexity to Contract Debate
Giddey’s recent surge, including games with stat lines approaching triple-doubles—such as 28 points, 16 rebounds, and 11 assists—has raised expectations and complicated contract discussions. His youthful potential contrasts with his yet-to-be-proven playoff impact, making the contract decision urgent but laden with risk.
The Bulls must balance securing a promising talent while avoiding an excessively costly contract that could limit future roster flexibility and heighten long-term salary cap constraints.
What Lies Ahead for Bulls and Josh Giddey Contract Talks?
The Bulls face a sensitive balancing act in negotiating Josh Giddey’s contract extension, where overpaying could trigger financial strain and unsettle the franchise’s future moves. While the market conditions and internal flexibility favor a moderate deal around $25 million per year, pressure to reward Giddey’s recent performances fuels the risk of an inflated offer.
Observing how executive vice president Artūras Karnisovas and team management navigate these talks will be critical for the Bulls’ trajectory in the highly competitive Eastern Conference.