Juan Soto is showcasing a remarkable return to form just two months into his $765 million, 15-year contract with the New York Mets, sparking new optimism for the team amid a recent slump. His June performance has been pivotal in keeping the Mets competitive in the National League East, despite a troubling stretch of losses.

Recent Challenges Threaten Mets’ Momentum

Despite starting the 2024 season strong with a 36-22 record and tied for first place in the NL East alongside the Philadelphia Phillies, the Mets’ trajectory shifted dramatically in mid-June. After an impressive start to June by winning nine of 11 games through June 12—opening a five-and-a-half-game lead on Philadelphia—the team hit a rough patch. Beginning with a loss on Friday the 13th, New York dropped seven consecutive games, including a sweep by the struggling Atlanta Braves and a heavy defeat to the Phillies on June 20.

Since then, the Mets have managed just three wins in 15 games, dropping their performance to 3-12 in that span. Still, the team remains just a half-game behind Philadelphia in the division standings, highlighting the tight race in the NL East as of June 29.

Injuries and Pitching Troubles Compound Mets’ Woes

Mets’ struggles have been aggravated by injuries and inconsistent pitching performances. On June 12, Kodai Senga, who had been leading the majors in ERA, suffered a hamstring injury on the basepaths, a setback that coincided with New York narrowly escaping with a 4-3 win over Washington. The following night, the Mets squandered a 5-1 lead to Tampa Bay, allowing six runs in the sixth inning and ultimately falling 7-5.

The pitching deterioration continued during a series in Atlanta, where the Mets initially led 4-1 but lost on a walk-off hit sparked by Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley. The Braves outscored New York by 12 runs in the remainder of the series. After a lopsided 10-2 loss in Philadelphia, the Mets finally snapped their losing streak with a home run-heavy win highlighted by seven solo homers.

However, the relief was short-lived. Starting pitching faltered yet again, as David Peterson, emerging as a key ace this year, was tagged for five runs in four innings during a 7-1 loss to the Phillies. The Mets’ bullpen provided some strong innings in the following Braves series opener, with Paul Blackburn giving up three early runs before four scoreless innings from relievers, but the offense struggled besides Soto’s two-run homer.

Closer to recent games, Frankie Montas returned with five scoreless innings after rehabs, helping the Mets build an early 3-0 lead against Atlanta. Yet, a shaky bullpen performance in the sixth inning, marked by six walks and a hit batter, allowed five Braves runs to erase the lead in a 7-4 loss.

Since Senga’s injury, Mets starters have struggled to maintain endurance; only once in the past 12 games has a starter pitched beyond six innings, and starters have exceeded five innings in just five contests. Furthermore, Mets’ starters have issued three or more walks in seven appearances during this period, further undermining stability. Bullpen failures have also erased leads of at least three runs in three losses during this stretch.

These pitching struggles stand in stark contrast to the Mets’ season-long stats, as they boast the best team ERA in baseball at 3.27. Yet, from June 13 to 24, their ERA ballooned to 6.11, a figure ranking second-worst across the league. Adding to these challenges, Griffin Canning suffered an Achilles injury after a 4-0 win, deepening uncertainty over the starting rotation’s health and effectiveness.

Offensive Struggles Beyond the Top of the Lineup

The Mets’ ability to score runs has diminished drastically during their recent losing streak, with a team wRC+ of just 81 over this span. Manager Carlos Mendoza has been left to rely heavily on the top five hitters, while production from the lower lineup has been virtually nonexistent. This offensive inconsistency compounds the team’s difficulties, especially in close games where depth at the plate is crucial.

Juan Soto’s Breakout June Elevates Mets’ Hopes

Though Soto began the season with a wRC+ of 119—below his career mark of 158 and below the expectations fueled by his lucrative contract—his performance surged notably in June. The strong underlying metrics signaled that a breakout was imminent, and Soto has met those expectations emphatically.

In June, Soto led all qualified hitters with a staggering 230 wRC+. His on-base percentage has hovered near .500, and he hit 11 home runs over the month. Additionally, he scored 25 runs, posted a .736 slugging percentage, and walked at a rate of 22.1%. His 1.8 fWAR put him in a tie for second-best in Major League Baseball for the month, ranking just behind Byron Buxton.

Despite this dominance, Soto has been somewhat unlucky with a batting average that lagged expected metrics, according to Baseball Savant, which estimated his expected batting average at .317 compared to his actual .258. True to form, Soto remains the league leader in walks, setting the table consistently for the Mets’ offense.

The Pivotal Role of Soto in the Mets’ Success

As the saying goes, a team’s success often depends on its stars delivering when it matters most. The Mets recently set a franchise record by winning 28 consecutive games in which star shortstop Francisco Lindor homered, underscoring the value of clutch hitting from star players. With Lindor currently in a slump following a fractured toe, Soto has taken on an even greater responsibility to carry the offense.

Following Soto’s two-homer game in the seven-home-run victory that ended the Mets’ losing streak, he continued to influence outcomes. In the next win against the Braves, Soto went 1-for-3 with a walk and two runs scored, including the first run of the game.

Earlier in the season, Lindor and first baseman Pete Alonso had propelled the Mets offensively, both performing at high levels. However, since Lindor’s injury on June 4, his production has dropped significantly, posting a June wRC+ of just 83 and, since the loss against Tampa Bay, a 61 wRC+. Alonso and Jeff McNeil, other reliable contributors, have also struggled recently with wRC+ ratings of 102 and 65, respectively, since mid-June.

This chain of events emphasizes why Juan Soto’s resurgence is crucial. The Mets invested heavily to secure Soto as a superstar and offensive leader, and while his early season was below stellar, he is now matching the expectations attached to his historic contract. His recent success bodes well for New York’s hopes as they navigate the remainder of the season and battle to keep pace with Philadelphia for the NL East crown.