The Philadelphia Phillies currently lead the National League East, with starting pitcher Ranger Suarez standing out as their top performer. At 29 years old, Suarez has delivered impressive outings, pitching seven or more innings in each of his last five starts while allowing no more than one earned run in those appearances. As Suarez approaches unrestricted free agency following the 2024 season, former Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. offered his prediction on the pitcher’s upcoming contract during a recent episode of The Phillies Show.
Suarez recently avoided arbitration by signing an $8.8 million contract for the 2025 season. With high expectations tied to his next deal, Amaro Jr. considered the involvement of Suarez’s agent, Scott Boras—well known for steering Bryce Harper and Juan Soto to massive contracts with the Phillies and Mets, respectively.
“I think his AAV would be somewhere between 25 and 28, 25 and 30,” Amaro Jr. said. “I could see him at 20 the way Boras works, and maybe a shorter deal and get the higher AAV so he can say ‘Hey, he got a bigger AAV than you know, bigger AAV than somebody else,’ because that’s what he always wants, to make benchmarks.”
—Ruben Amaro Jr., former Phillies GM
Despite Suarez’s strong performances, Amaro Jr. expressed caution about the length of contract offers Suarez may receive, citing previous injuries. The pitcher has dealt with back issues in 2022, followed by elbow and hamstring injuries in 2023, and missed part of the 2025 season due to back soreness.
“I also think just a lot of teams are going to shy away from the velocity,” the former GM added. “These people who are running baseball teams in this day and age are not understanding how important it is to be able to pitch as opposed to throw, and so they get lit up by the velocity.”
—Ruben Amaro Jr., former Phillies GM
Suarez’s fastball velocity averages 91-93 mph, which Amaro Jr. believes could eliminate 12 to 15 teams from serious consideration. He predicts Suarez’s next contract will likely span four to five years, though Boras may negotiate for six years. The total value of the deal is expected to fall between $160 million and $185 million.
Former Phillies GM compares Suarez’s pitching style to a celebrated MLB veteran
In his most recent two starts, Suarez posted a remarkable 1.23 ERA, giving up only eight hits over 14.2 innings, allowing just two runs that were solo home runs, while issuing four walks and striking out 15 hitters. Over his last 10 starts, he has maintained a splendid 1.19 ERA—an achievement unmatched by any Phillies pitcher since Cliff Lee’s 2011 run.
Todd Zolecki, a Phillies insider, highlighted these statistics during the same The Phillies Show episode, prompting praise from Ruben Amaro Jr.
“I don’t think there’s any question. Ranger Suarez is the man,” Amaro Jr. said. “The thing I love about him is it’s like he’s literally just playing catch out there with the catcher. He’s a left-handed Liván Hernández.”
—Ruben Amaro Jr., former Phillies GM
Liván Hernández was a two-time All-Star and a standout over 17 MLB seasons, with his peak years spent as a Florida Marlins player. He contributed significantly to the Marlins’ 1997 World Series victory and earned MVP honors in both the National League Championship Series and World Series during that championship run.
Implications and future prospects for Ranger Suarez’s free agency
Ranger Suarez’s free agent contract prediction comes at a key moment, as the Phillies maintain their competitive position in the National League East. His consistent ability to limit runs despite lower velocity pitching sets him apart, but injury concerns and pitch speed might impact the number of suitors and contract length. Scott Boras’s involvement assures strategic negotiation to maximize both Suarez’s average annual value and market benchmarks, following the pattern established with clients like Bryce Harper and Juan Soto.
The balance between Suarez’s durability issues and pitching acumen will likely be central to his contract discussions. Teams must assess whether the pitcher’s control and style outweigh concerns about velocity and past injuries. If Suarez secures a multi-year deal in the predicted range of $160 million to $185 million, it will reaffirm confidence in pitchers with a strong strategic approach despite lacking elite speed.
As free agency unfolds, watching how Boras negotiates for Suarez will provide insight into evolving contract trends and team priorities in the MLB’s pitching market. Suarez’s future contract could influence how similar pitchers are valued in years to come, blending performance metrics with injury risk and pitching style.