The Houston Texans’ offense took a noticeable downturn during the 2024 NFL season, slowing the momentum set by C.J. Stroud’s impressive rookie year in 2023. Although the Texans secured the AFC South title again with a 10-7 record and made consecutive appearances in the Divisional Round, the offense’s growth plateaued amid a highly competitive AFC landscape. The regression led to doubts about the team’s ability to sustain offensive success moving forward.

Statistical Overview of Houston’s Offensive Struggles in 2024

In 2024, the Texans’ offense posted 21.9 points per game, ranking 19th in the NFL. They averaged 319.7 total yards per game, sitting at 22nd overall. Houston ran 62.2 plays per game (15th) with 41.2 dropbacks per contest (12th), but their efficiency dropped drastically. The dropback EPA (Expected Points Added) per play stood at a meager 0.01, placing them 21st in the league. On the ground, Houston attempted 25.5 rushes per game but recorded a negative EPA of -0.12 on these plays, ranking 23rd, indicating inefficiency in their running attack.

Assessing Prospects for Offensive Improvement Under Coach DeMeco Ryans

Head coach DeMeco Ryans, who has led the Texans into the playoffs both years of his tenure, faces the challenge of reigniting an offense that stalled during Stroud’s second year. The team’s points per game fell from 13th in 2023 to 19th in 2024, while total yards per game declined from 12th to 22nd. Bobby Slowik, former offensive coordinator once considered for head coaching jobs, was dismissed following the offensive regression.

Replacing him is Nick Caley, who served as the Rams’ passing game coordinator last season, tasked with revitalizing Houston’s passing offense. The Texans posted a negative EPA per play of -0.04, ranking 21st in the NFL offensively in 2024. This prompted a shift toward re-tooling their offense in hopes of transforming Stroud from a conservative game manager into a more dynamic passer. Fantasy football managers are closely watching for signs Stroud can overcome the limited production caused by an ineffective run game.

On the defensive side, coordinator Matt Burke has built a strong unit featuring stars like Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter, and Derek Stingley Jr., which provides the Texans with a solid foundation. Special teams remain under the leadership of standout coach Frank Ross, providing consistency in all game phases.

Analyzing Houston’s Passing Attack Heading into 2025

C.J. Stroud, Houston’s franchise quarterback and 2023 Pro Bowl selection, struggled with reduced efficiency last season. Stroud’s yards per attempt dropped from 8.2 in his rookie campaign to 7.0 in his sophomore year, while his touchdown-to-interception ratio dropped sharply from 4.6 to 1.7. Contributing factors included conservative play-calling by Slowik and injuries to his receiving corps. Consequently, Stroud’s status downgraded from a reliable QB1 to a borderline QB2, with little rushing upside during dropbacks ranking 21st in EPA per play league-wide.

To regain his earlier form and top-13 ranking in passing, Stroud must return to more aggressive downfield throws, supported by a talented group of receivers.

Leading the receiving group is 26-year-old Nico Collins, Houston’s top target when healthy. Collins began 2024 strongly but missed five games due to a hamstring injury. Pro Football Focus values him as the best wideout in yards per route run over the last two seasons, with a remarkable 0.612 fantasy points per route run in PPR leagues. Collins has averaged over 2.8 yards per route run the past two years, ranking him in the top five among NFL wide receivers. As Houston’s primary downfield threat, Collins offers reliable production on intermediate routes and is positioned as a top-ten fantasy wide receiver target for 2025.

Behind Collins, the Texans have faced setbacks. Tank Dell sustained a severe knee injury in Week 16, including a dislocated kneecap and multiple ligament tears, effectively sidelining him for the 2025 season. Despite this, dynasty fantasy managers may consider stashing Dell for the long term.

Christian Kirk, acquired to fill digital voids left by Stefon Diggs’ ACL injury and subsequent departure to the Patriots, adds experience to the slot. Kirk played only eight games with the Jaguars in 2024, catching 27 of 47 targets for 379 yards and one touchdown. His health has been a concern, having missed numerous games due to a broken collarbone and groin injury over the last two years. Although Kirk’s peak fantasy performance came in 2022 with 14.2 PPR points per game, his role as the de facto No. 2 receiver gives him WR4 potential.

The Texans also boosted their receiving depth by drafting Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel from Iowa State. Higgins, the first second-round draft pick to receive a fully guaranteed contract, brings a 6-foot-4, 214-pound frame suited for contested catches on the boundary. Noel, a speedy slot receiver and former kick returner, will compete with Kirk for playing time and contribute on special teams. Higgins is a promising candidate for the No. 2 receiver spot, aiming for WR3 fantasy value, while Noel remains a long-shot option requiring an opportunity for significant snaps.

Additional receiver depth includes John Metchie III and Xavier Hutchinson, both currently reserves without clear fantasy relevance but available as depth options.

At tight end, Dalton Schultz leads Houston’s unit entering the second year of his three-year, $36 million contract. Schultz posted a TE3 fantasy finish last season despite a relatively low scoring output, with just two touchdowns. He is primarily a short-yardage target and less likely to produce explosive plays. Backups Brevin Jordan and Cade Stover will only become fantasy-relevant if they usurp Schultz’s role or if injuries occur.

Rushing Core and Offensive Line Outlook for 2025

The Texans return Joe Mixon as the lead running back after a high-volume but efficiency-challenged 2024 campaign. Despite contending with a lingering ankle injury, Mixon handled approximately 20 touches per game last season, resulting in a back-end RB1 finish with 17.2 PPR points annually. However, Houston’s rushing offense posted a low efficiency rating, ranking 23rd in Rush EPA per play. Mixon’s individual yardage per attempt ranked 33rd among backs, accompanied by a middling PFF rushing grade of 74.8 placing him 24th. His pass-catching ability, demonstrated through 36 receptions last season, remains a valuable outlet for Stroud and a boost to his fantasy prospects. Provided he stays healthy, Mixon projects as an RB2 for the upcoming season.

Nick Chubb joins the Texans’ backfield to share the downhill rushing duties. After a serious leg injury cut short his 2023 season, Chubb returned in 2024 with 102 carries for 332 yards and three touchdowns. Although no longer at Pro Bowl level, he remains a reliable backup with potential RB4/5 fantasy value, especially in committees activated by Mixon’s absence.

Rookie Woody Marks, a fourth-round pick, is expected to handle pass-catching duties out of the backfield, leveraging his college background of 261 receptions. He projects as the complementary passing-down back within the Texans’ committee. Dameon Pierce, primarily a special teams contributor last season, maintains a backup role with potential for limited touches, especially if Mixon misses time.

The offensive line will play a pivotal role in Houston’s offensive resurgence. Last year’s group surrendered 33 sacks and contributed to the inefficiency in the run game. The departure of Laremy Tunsil leaves a significant void, though the line features returning members like Cam Robinson, Laken Tomlinson, Jarrett Patterson, Tytus Howard, and rookie Aireontae Ersay. Replacing Tunsil’s production will be challenging, and Tomlinson’s performance is similar to that of Shaq Mason, who also graded below elite levels in PFF rankings. Improved protection for Stroud and better run-blocking will be crucial for the Texans to elevate their offensive effectiveness and, by extension, Stroud’s fantasy value.

Looking Ahead: Texans’ Win Projection and Implications for Offense

The Texans are projected with a win total line set at 9.5 for the upcoming season, with betting odds favoring the over (+100). After consecutive 10-win seasons under the Ryans-Stroud regime, Houston remains an ascending team still shaping its identity. Adjusting to a new offensive coordinator may require an adaptation period, but the presence of key playmakers establishes a solid baseline.

In a competitive AFC South where several teams are rebuilding, the Texans appear poised to achieve a third straight double-digit win season. Success for Stroud and the offense in 2025 would not only enhance fantasy prospects but also signal progress toward the team’s ultimate goal of legitimate playoff contention. The ability of Stroud to recapture his rookie season’s accuracy and aggressiveness will be a key factor in determining Houston’s offensive trajectory and overall team success moving forward.