Rumors regarding a Max Verstappen Mercedes move have intensified this week, as talks reportedly advance between the reigning Formula 1 world champion and the Silver Arrows. While Mercedes currently competes with George Russell and rookie Kimi Antonelli, neither driver is contracted beyond the 2025 season. This contract uncertainty, combined with Verstappen’s rising profile, has fueled speculation about a high-profile transfer. However, the buzz remains largely unconfirmed amid doubts about contract complications and buyout costs.
The intrigue began as Sky Sports Italy described discussions reaching a “decisive” phase. Yet, major F1 outlets have countered this narrative. Sky Sports F1 clarified that Verstappen has not expressed a desire to leave Red Bull prematurely, nor has Mercedes officially approached him. Additionally, Erik van Haren from De Telegraaf stressed that despite Mercedes’ interest, Verstappen has yet to agree to any switch.
Mercedes’ Motivation to Pursue Verstappen
Understanding why Mercedes might seek Verstappen’s talent is essential. Verstappen is a four-time Drivers’ Champion who secured the 2024 title driving the RB20, which was not the fastest car on the grid last season. His proven ability to extract maximum performance from less dominant machinery underscores his exceptional skill and championship-caliber pedigree.
Team principal Toto Wolff has openly expressed regret over missing the chance to sign Verstappen early in his career. As Wolff recalled in a 2023 ESPN interview, initial conversations took place in 2014 when Verstappen was transitioning from karting to Formula 3.
“I spoke to Jos and Huub Rothengatter [Jos Verstappen’s manager during his F1 career] when they came to my office in Brackley and that must have been when Max was in karting or the end of his karting days [in 2013] just before Formula 3 [in 2014],”
—Toto Wolff, Mercedes Team Principal
“Do I regret missing out on Max? Certainly.”
—Toto Wolff, Mercedes Team Principal
At that time, Mercedes had a full driver lineup with Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg, and when Rosberg retired after 2016, Verstappen had already secured his seat at Red Bull, while Valtteri Bottas was lined up as a Mercedes driver. Now, with Russell and Antonelli both holding contracts expiring in 2025, Wolff appears willing to explore Verstappen as a long-term option to strengthen the team’s future.
Both Russell and Antonelli are talented drivers. Russell, who has yet to win a Drivers’ Championship, showed strong form in 2024, while Antonelli has made an impressive rookie debut, including a podium at the Canadian Grand Prix. Mercedes could build sustainably around these two, but Verstappen’s championship-winning experience might tempt them to pursue a more immediate upgrade.
Contractual Challenges and Verstappen’s Position
Red Bull Racing has locked Verstappen into a contract through 2028, with team principal Christian Horner downplaying any premature exit rumors. This tight contract allows Horner to dismiss speculation. However, there is a contractual clause linked to Verstappen’s performance that could potentially open a path to exit.
According to recent insights, if Verstappen is not among the top four drivers in the championship standings by the summer break after the Hungarian Grand Prix, he may have grounds to negotiate an early departure. Yet, such a move would require Mercedes to pay a significant buyout fee, estimated by Sky Sports F1 at more than £100 million ($135 million).
Currently, Verstappen ranks third in the Drivers’ Championship, trailing Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris by 61 and 46 points respectively, but holding a nine-point advantage over George Russell, who is in fourth place.
If Verstappen’s ranking drops further to trigger the exit clause, and Mercedes is willing to cover the substantial buyout, would Verstappen consider switching teams? Various factors, including upcoming regulation changes and team prospects, could influence his decision.
The Impact of 2026 Regulation Changes
Formula 1 will introduce major aerodynamic and power unit regulations starting in the 2026 season. These changes include a balanced approach to power unit output, with a 50/50 split between the hybrid system and the internal combustion engine. Mercedes is widely expected to benefit from this shift due to its advanced power unit program, potentially reclaiming dominance similar to their era from 2014 to 2021, when they won eight consecutive Constructors’ Championships and seven Drivers’ titles.
The 2026 change marks the end of Red Bull’s Honda partnership, as Red Bull and its sister team Red Bull Ford switch to Ford power units from next year through 2030. Meanwhile, Honda will supply Aston Martin, creating new technical dynamics at the front of the grid. While the full impact of these changes remains uncertain, Mercedes’ history and current development path suggest the team could return to championship contention prominently in 2026.
As aerodynamic regulations and engine supplier shifts reshape the field, Verstappen may find a move to Mercedes appealing if he believes the team will offer the fastest car, a priority affirmed repeatedly by experts and insiders.
“I mean Max, obviously a formidable competitor, but he’s also a very simple beast – and I mean that in an entirely complimentary way,”
—Adrian Newey, Red Bull Designer
“I suspect Max will always chase who he thinks will produce the fastest car.”
—Adrian Newey, Red Bull Designer
This aligns with Verstappen’s own past comments indicating his ambition to drive the fastest car on the grid, regardless of the team.
“Yes, I think I can do it next year with Red Bull.”
—Max Verstappen, Driver
Verstappen’s statement from 2020, before winning the 2021 championship, emphasizes his focus on competitive machinery rather than team loyalty alone. Should Mercedes prove to be the team to beat, Verstappen’s interest in joining them would increase accordingly.
Implications for George Russell and Kimi Antonelli
A Verstappen transfer to Mercedes would complicate the team’s driver lineup, particularly affecting George Russell. With Antonelli, an 18-year-old rookie having exceeded expectations and sitting seventh in the championship with a first podium, Mercedes would likely prioritize retaining him for future development.
A driver pairing of Verstappen and Antonelli offers Mercedes a combination of current championship pedigree alongside youthful promise. Consequently, Russell could become the odd one out despite his best season yet, featuring multiple podiums and a win at the Canadian Grand Prix.
Russell’s ascension into a leadership role at Mercedes gained momentum after Lewis Hamilton’s surprising move to Ferrari for the 2025 season. However, with Verstappen potentially joining the team, Russell’s position may be endangered despite his strong performances.
Current Outlook and What Lies Ahead
Despite escalating rumors, the most probable outcome is maintaining the status quo for the near future. Mercedes appears to be conducting thorough evaluations due to contract expirations but faces challenges in justifying Verstappen’s exorbitant buyout fee, especially if their new power unit program secures a competitive advantage without adding him.
Wolff acknowledged the complexity of negotiations and the importance of respect for all parties involved.
“You need to be respectable towards the stakeholders in all of that process – the organisation, the drivers, everybody,”
—Toto Wolff, Mercedes Team Principal
“You need to understand the way forward. I don’t want to be sadistic in letting a driver wait or not taking any decisions when it should be taken.”
—Toto Wolff, Mercedes Team Principal
“I feel we are in a good space, we’re [in] June, there are lots of discussions around.”
—Toto Wolff, Mercedes Team Principal
“I’ve been open with it, transparent. And at a certain stage, in the next couple of months, until the summer break, everything is going to be done.”
—Toto Wolff, Mercedes Team Principal
With the summer break marking a pivotal juncture for contracts and decisions, all parties remain cautious. Verstappen’s contract terms and the potential buyout price present deterrents, while current drivers offer competitive options. If Mercedes’ 2026 power unit program performs as expected, paying a premium for Verstappen may not be the most strategic move.
Ultimately, while the rumors highlight an intriguing prospect for Formula 1’s competitive landscape, the combination of contractual obligations and financial barriers makes an imminent Verstappen shift to Mercedes unlikely. The story will continue unfolding through 2025, with significant updates anticipated after the summer break as teams finalize their lineups for the next era of Formula 1 racing.